DISH Drops AMC Networks (AMC Back on DISH channel 131)

[GaryPen]

AMC could lower their per-sub rate, if they were added to AT120/120+, and end up making more money. That would be due to the direct revenue paid by Dish, plus the indirect revenue from increased ad rates based on higher viewership.

Dish could see add'l revenue from new subs. OTOH, people might lower their packages. But, it's unlikely that many are subbing to upper pacvks just for AMC.

 

[osu1991]

AMC is not in the base package.

My bad, I have AT250 and didn't look it up, but it still makes my point.

I also don't see Dish losing more than 25-35k subs max, over this. If AMC wants carriage bad enough, they can offer to be carried ala-cart, but then everyone would see just how little this channel means to people. AMC wants to be bundled with their other less than popular channels. I really think the time has come that these stands need to be made over the bundling of all these niche channels. AMC makes a good example to start with, they're not a total bottom of the line channel group, but they're also not Disney or Viacom either.

 

[demsd]

I think I'm misunderstanding this whole AMC Dish thing then. I was under the impression that the Dish guys and AMC guys weren't getting along and this is Dish's way of sticking it to them.

You are under the right impression.

 

[demsd]

AMC is about to lose 14 million viewers come July 1st.

Didn't realize AMC was in all of the DISH packages.

 

[KAB]

Didn't realize AMC was in all of the DISH packages.

They're not. As posted earlier, not on 120, 120+ or any Dish America. Welcome pack I'm not sure about.

 

[demsd]

Correct -- A drop in viewers and ratings probably not much, but a drop in advertising revenue, definitely.

That's a bit of a contradiction, isn't it? If viewership does not drop much, then ratings won't drop much.

Dish pays AMC for the number of subscribers in the package that AMC is in, since AMC is in the base package, AMC is losing 14 million subscribers, whether those 14 million actually watched the channel or not, that is 14 million fewer subscribers that AMC can pitch to their advertisers. So it is going to hurt AMC much more than it is going to hurt Dish.

Advertisers look for the 18-49 demographic, not the total number of viewers. Unless all of the 14 million DISH subs are watching AMC, the total number of subs does nothing in the way of enticing companies to advertise.

Your assessment would still only account for a temporary loss of $3.64 million/month for AMC [at the reported $0.26/sub/month calculation].

Might help to consider the quarterly earnings reports for DISH & AMC. DISH's earnings the first quarter of this year are down 34%. Considering AMC's revenue is up 19%, I can't see $3.64 million doing a lot of damage.

 

[demsd]

My gut feeling is that Dish can ride this out a lot longer than AMC, and is willing to.

Until they lose the lawsuit and take another half billion [or more] hit in the pocket.

 

[demsd]

A. AMC is not in 14 million Dish homes, as AMC is not included in every package. Family Pack, AT120/AT120+, and International Base do not get AMC. Since Dish's two major selling points are Low-Priced Packages and International Programming, one would have to assume that subscribers to those packages make up a very large part of Dish's subscriber base.

B. If 700K subs dropped Dish due to the AMC debacle, that would mean lost revenue of $40million per month, probably more. (700k x $60 AT200 = $42m. Don't forget DVR fees, Add'l receiver fees, Whole home, Protection Plan, Premiums, etc.) I would say that the shareholders might be somewhat perturbed by a quarterly reduction of $120m in revenue, and annually close to a HALF-BILLION dollars. I'm just sayin'.

Once you start doing the math, it does not add up for DISH. The minute amount AMC gets from DISH will not hurt as much. As I posted twice, AMC's earnings are up 19%, much of which comes from streaming content. It could easily be said that revenue could increase if few people left DISH and choose to pay to see The Walking Dead, etc, online.

I'd be surprised if 700 subs dropped DISH, but would not be surprised if the loses equated to the amount of money AMC would lose without DISH. Like toooo many have said, If DISH knows how many subs watch, they know how many subs they can't lose.

 

[demsd]

They're not. As posted earlier, not on 120, 120+ or any Dish America. Welcome pack I'm not sure about.

I am aware its not. I was being intentionally facetious.

 

[rufwork]

They're not. As posted earlier, not on 120, 120+ or any Dish America. Welcome pack I'm not sure about.

As Mojo pointed out earlier, it's in the Welcome Pack. That's why I have the Welcome Pack.

Only SD, however.

 

[demsd]

... here's another idea..why not let the customers decide if they want to pay a few cents a month extra for the disputed channels instead of arrogantly deciding that they'll make the decision for you whether you like it or not.

Buy one share of DISH stock, currently $28.37/share, and participate in stockholder meetings [electronically -- via Internet or telephone].

 

[sam_gordon]

Thanks that is exactly how the rates are set. It's the possible not the actual number that counts. The actual number is never know until after it has shown. It used to be about a month afterward by now is know w/in days thanks to the electronic age. I was both a member of the broadcast industry and for a while was part of the Neilsen panel. So have seen it from both sides.

Then why even have Neilson numbers? From what I remember from my broadcasting classes, Neilson charts how many people watched a given show. The sales team for that show goes out and says "x% of all viewers (or 18-49yo male, or 'key demographics') were watching our show. Don't you want to be seen by these people?"

It makes no sense to go on 'possible'. If so, AMC (speaking strictly Dish) would have the same 'possible' viewers as any other channel in that package. So how would channels/shows differentiate?

Anyway, all I was commenting on was the REPEATED comments that AMC would 'lose 14 Million viewers' if they drop off Dish. That is a false statement. That would be like saying a shopping network would lose 20 million viewers (or however many total subscribers Dish has) if it gets dropped.

As far as who this would hurt more, AMC or Dish, I think it's about even. AMC doesn't have enough viewers that losing Dish subscribers would make a difference. Where they DO lose is the subscription fee paid by Dish. Dish won't lose enough subscribers to really make a difference.

 

[demsd]

As far as who this would hurt more, AMC or Dish, I think it's about even. AMC doesn't have enough viewers that losing Dish subscribers would make a difference. Where they DO lose is the subscription fee paid by Dish. Dish won't lose enough subscribers to really make a difference.

Again, AMC's net revenue the first quarter of 2012 is up 19.5% [$326 million] which equates to an average of $108 million/month. Even if all 14 million DISH subs had AMC, the total loss to AMC is an estimated $3.64 million/month. Do the math.

DISH's Net revenue the first quarter of 2012 totaled $360 million, compared to $549 million during the the first quarter of 2012 -- the cost of losing half billion dollar lawsuits.

If AMC's net revenue is $6 million more, how is it they lose if the DISH hit is [much] less than $4 million?

As you said, they don't. It will end up being an even loss where subscriber revenue is concerned. Its a wash. Until the lawsuit is settled.

.

 

[MikeD-C05]

Didn't realize AMC was in all of the DISH packages.

Let me rephrase that : I should of said 14 million "potential" or "Possible" viewers as well as "actual "viewers. Either was AMC will lose the potential to get paid "any" revenue regardless of who is watching AMC at DISH come July 1st.

 

[MikeD-C05]

They're not. As posted earlier, not on 120, 120+ or any Dish America. Welcome pack I'm not sure about.

Yes it is in the Welcome pack. I have it on two of my accounts that have Welcome pack .

 

[GaryPen]

Let me rephrase that : I should of said 14 million "potential" as well as "actual "viewers. Either was AMC will lose the potential to get paid "any" revenue regardless of who is watching AMC at DISH come July 1st.

It's not even potential viewers, as AMC is not included in every Dish package, as has been well established in the last few pages of this thread.

 

[demsd]

Let me rephrase that : I should of said 14 million "potential" or "Possible" viewers as well as "actual "viewers. Either was AMC will lose the potential to get paid "any" revenue regardless of who is watching AMC at DISH come July 1st.

No one is arguing that AMC will lose subscriber revenue. The question is, will it hurt? Based on their first quarter earnings, the answer to that question is a resounding no. The measly $3 million or so does not put a dent in the 19.5% revenue increase.

DISH still owes TiVo $200 million [to be paid between 2012-2017] for that $500 million lawsuit settlement. If AMC goes, I think most here agree that DISH will lose subs -- the questions is how many and how much the cost is to DISH. The AMC lawsuit will cost DISH no matter what, because DISH is now required to pay all of AMC's attorney fees. Considering the set back DISH received by the SCONYs appellate division, DISH will either lose the lawsuit, or, and more likely, will settle the $2.5 billion lawsuit with AMC for a very generous amount. In the end, the loss will be significantly higher to DISH then you might care to imagine.

.

 

[MikeD-C05]

It's not even potential viewers, as AMC is not included in every Dish package, as has been well established in the last few pages of this thread.

Every customer of DISH has the "potential" to upgrade to a pack that has AMC in it. The top 200 pack is supposed to be the most popular programming pack that DISH has . Even the lowest Welcome pack has AMC in it. The only English programming packs that don't have it are the top 120/120plus and the Family pack. So that means top 200, top 250 and Everthing packs do have it. So to me that is 14 million "potential subs" that AMC will no longer have access to and will lose revenue over it. Besides why do you think that other companies won't follow Charlie's lead and drop AMC also ,when they come calling and asking for a huge increase? After all Directv is watching and waiting on the Hopper auto hop lawsuits are resolved ,before they enable the same feature on their dvrs.

 

[MikeD-C05]

No one is arguing that AMC will lose subscriber revenue. The question is, will it hurt? Based on their first quarter earnings, the answer to that question is a resounding no. The measly $3 million or so does not put a dent in the 19.5% revenue increase.

DISH still owes TiVo $200 million [to be paid between 2012-2017] for that $500 million lawsuit settlement. If AMC goes, I think most here agree that DISH will lose subs -- the questions is how many and how much the cost is to DISH. The AMC lawsuit will cost DISH no matter what, because DISH is now required to pay all of AMC's attorney fees. Considering the set back DISH received by the SCONYs appellate division, DISH will either lose the lawsuit, or, and more likely, will settle the $2.5 billion lawsuit with AMC for a very generous amount. In the end, the loss will be significantly higher to DISH then you might care to imagine.

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You may be right about the cost to DISH,but you seem to forget how stubborn Charlie Ergen is . Look at the distant networks lawsuit and how long it took to resolve and DISH not only lost that one ,but lost the ability to even do distant networks for a few years. OF course he found away to still have distant networks through DISH receivers using Sobongo or what ever they called themselves at the beginning and he still got profits from renting the transponders to them for monthly rent . Look at how many years he fought Tivo and lost again , and again. Look at the DISNEY lawsuit. He refused to pay twice for both sd and hd versions of the same channel and that hasn't changed in a couple of years. Then there is the Voom lawsuit ,which is directly linked to this squabble with Cablevison over AMC. I don't see CHarlie /DISH giving in on this one , any more than he did the other various lawsuits I mentioned above. History is a great predictor of past as well as present behavior. Charlie won't give in on this one . So get used to no more AMC ,We or Ifc, just like the now gone Sundance channel.

 

[r424chevy48II]

Looks like the Voom decision is becoming a more sticky situation by the moment!!! Good call Charlie!!! I bet Paying AMC attorney fees really sticks in his crawl!