Apple losses are Google gains

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Just two different pieces of spin, the most relevant point is in the first article though:

This is Apple's first quarter-to-quarter drop in smartphone market share in two years, ABI's research indicates. The last time the iPhone suffered a loss was in late 2008.
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The 2nd article says this is because of how well the iphone performs in certain seasons, but fails to reinforce this with previous years quarterly numbers.
 
meStevo-
Just two different pieces of spin!
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Very good.

One obvious fallacy in these spin reports is how they spin the numbers, comparing a single smart phone device sales from Apple to a group of smart phone sales by other manufacturers. In no case was the iphone compared to a single phone by another mfg, but rather in all cases the iphone was compared to all the phones in a class ( smart phones) made by other manufacturers. Still the iphone comes out on top. You don't report true comparisons by stating Ford Mustang sales didn't beat the sales of all GM cars or all Toyota cars. How about comparing Ford Mustang with Toyota Camry? So, how about comparing iphone with htc tp2, or with Motorola Droid?

Also, as the market pie expands the slice % of the pioneers in the pie should drop as more and more phones enter the market with enough features that make it a "smartphone" Again, comparing % market share of a single phone with the market share of all smartphones made by another manufacturer is hardly valid.

OK, I know they really were comparing the market share of manufacturers but I would expect these other manufacturers to have a greater share of the market solely because they offer more phones. The fact that Apple is still beating their numbers, says something about the appeal of their single phone, the iphone.
 
Don Landis said:
meStevo- Very good.

One obvious fallacy in these spin reports is how they spin the numbers, comparing a single smart phone device sales from Apple to a group of smart phone sales by other manufacturers. In no case was the iphone compared to a single phone by another mfg, but rather in all cases the iphone was compared to all the phones in a class ( smart phones) made by other manufacturers. Still the iphone comes out on top. You don't report true comparisons by stating Ford Mustang sales didn't beat the sales of all GM cars or all Toyota cars. How about comparing Ford Mustang with Toyota Camry? So, how about comparing iphone with htc tp2, or with Motorola Droid?

Also, as the market pie expands the slice % of the pioneers in the pie should drop as more and more phones enter the market with enough features that make it a "smartphone" Again, comparing % market share of a single phone with the market share of all smartphones made by another manufacturer is hardly valid.

OK, I know they really were comparing the market share of manufacturers but I would expect these other manufacturers to have a greater share of the market solely because they offer more phones. The fact that Apple is still beating their numbers, says something about the appeal of their single phone, the iphone.
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Spot on!

Mario
 
Don Landis said:
You don't report true comparisons by stating Ford Mustang sales didn't beat the sales of all GM cars...
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You don't.
But if Ford would manufacture only Mustangs and it would compete with every car GM manufactures - you would. And rightfully so.

Leaving aside the beliveability of the numbers and spin, it boils down to:
1. There is a cell phone market called "smartphone".
2. There are few companies competing in this market.
3. All but one company offers few different handsets; Apple offers one.
4. Apple had a good quarter but not as good as the smartphone market overall.

In numbers like this the accuracy of the relative change (i.e. market share) is always higher than the absolute numbers...
Don Landis said:
Also, as the market pie expands the slice % of the pioneers in the pie should drop...
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Why?
Was there ever a quarter when iPod's market share went down?
And btw, Apple is not a pioneer of the smartphone market...


Diogen.
 
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diogen said:
You don't.
But if Ford would manufacture only Mustangs and it would compete with every car GM manufactures - you would. And rightfully so.

Leaving aside the beliveability of the numbers and spin, it boils down to:
1. There is a cell phone market called "smartphone".
2. There are few companies competing in this market.
3. All but one company offers few different handsets; Apple offers one.
4. Apple had a good quarter but not as good as the smartphone market overall.

In numbers like this the accuracy of the relative change (i.e. market share) is always higher than the absolute numbers...
Why?
Was there ever a quarter when iPod's market share went down?
And btw, Apple is not a pioneer of the smartphone market...


Diogen.
Click to expand...

#4 the reason I have issue with this is because the actual market is growing by not just popularity of smasrt phones, but also the number of different smart phone choices. When I first bought my ipaq, there were like 3-5 PDA's to select from.

Agreed that Apple is not a pioneer in smart phones but certainly an innovator. The hardest part I have respecting the iphone is it lacks some very fundamental features I just won't do without. At least not until the entire industry dumps those features too, then I will have no choice.


This afternoon I was completely redoing my cell phone accounts to a simpler family plan. I was the only one in the store that was actually downgrading the Blackberry to a less smart multimedia smart phone. Others were upgrading to Droids and similar PDA phones. The sales rep said it is so rare these days to see anyone reverting to a simpler phone.
 
There is no doubt that iPhone, just like iPod, is a tremendous success.
And Apple has entered the smartphone market to dominate it just like iPod dominates its own.

They don't try to beat HTC as a manufacturer (they most likely did by now and nobody cares).
They try to do just what they "accuse" Google in attempting: kill the competition. Regardless of the hardware/OS origins.
Therefore I believe the comparison methodology is sound.

Have a look at the IDC report (post #10) - they claim Apple market share increased. Some ~50%...
Just shows how fluid the definition of the market and number crunching models can be...

Diogen.
 
Closer to home numbers - US smartphone market share
Google makes biggest gain in smartphone market share
smartphone_1209.png


Google more than doubled its market share in a quarter... even before Nexus One was released. No wonder Jobs is pi$$ed...:)

Diogen.
 
i have used a nexus one, moto droid, htc touch etc. while verizon's network is impressive, none of them are iphones as far as ease of use and graphic user interface is concerned. Apple got its game on with the itouch and iphone in that respect. email app on iphone is the most impressive mobile email app i have ever seen.
I am not an apple fanboy but i have used them all and needless to say apple has the hardware.

they should have left the iphone open to all the carriers.

the only complaint with the iphone is its slow to launch apps sometimes and the battery life is ridiculous. I know that high bandwidth data loads kills batteries. but hopefully some better battery technology is on the horizon.
 
diogen said:
Closer to home numbers - US smartphone market share
Google makes biggest gain in smartphone market share
smartphone_1209.png


Google more than doubled its market share in a quarter... even before Nexus One was released. No wonder Jobs is pi$$ed...:)

Diogen.
Click to expand...

Based on your chart it's RIM, Microsoft and Palm that are losing market share. Apple and Google both picked up new users. One would expect Google to pick up a bigger share with the new product. The big question is can they maintain that growth rate?
 
mperdue said:
Based on your chart...
One would expect Google to pick up a bigger share with the new product.
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It's not my chart...
There were no new products: the chart is December vs. September. Nexus One was introduced in January.

The point of the chart was: while generating 95%+ of the noise in the smartphone market, Apple has just a quarter of market share.

Diogen.
 
I would also suspect that the Palm numbers would look even worse over a two year period; the age of the treo ended (sad actually, as I loved my treo 700p), and Palm never recovered. Of course, we still have one treo on our account - my wife is satisfied with hers. The phone works, she likes the keyboard for texts, and she does not use a data plan.
 
Updated worldwide data for 2009. Taken from here.

smartphone_share_2009.png


The chart shows how un-comparable the US and worldwide smartphone markets are:
Symbian, having almost half the worldwide market is practically non-existent in the US...

Diogen.
 
diogen said:
Closer to home numbers - US smartphone market...
smartphone_1209.png
Click to expand...
To correct the thread title - it's MS' losses that are Android's gains
http://www.comscore.com/Press_Event...uary_2010_U.S._Mobile_Subscriber_Market_Share

comscore-smartphone-market-share-jan-2010-1268363331.jpg


Comparing these two charts shows the Nexus One effect: about 2% (from 5.2 in December to 7.1 in January).

RIM got its share back. Apple stayed flat. Google gobbled up MS' share and then some...

And what's interesting, Android has about the same marketshare worldwide.
No wonder Apple is sending in its patent lawyers...

Diogen.
 

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