Directv 16 Launch Schedule
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If an adequate amount of customers are transitioned to broad band in 5yrs and they can shut down uplink centers and lay off 1,000 or more people, ATT will pull the plug on satellites. I think they cringe just paying the power bill for some of the uplink sites, not to mention satellite station keeping and other satellite related expenses.
Both Directv and Dish are transportation companies.
Seeking Alpha estimates that Dish would be at break even with 3 million customers without cutting their existing infrastructure ..
I'd guess Directv break even would be somewhat less than that, perhaps 2.5 million.
So, satellite TV is going to be around for a long long time.
Seeking Alpha estimates that Dish would be at break even with 3 million customers without cutting their existing infrastructure ..
I'd guess Directv break even would be somewhat less than that, perhaps 2.5 million.
So, satellite TV is going to be around for a long long time.
ATT has stated they will get off satellites in 5yrs, did they suddenly change their mind? There are plenty of things happening at ATT that is in line with them gearing up for pulling the plug on satellites. Are you guessing at this or do you have some facts from ATT that says they will continue with satellites after 5yrs???
To add more, the DTVLA side of Directv was a money looser for about 10yrs even when they had over 2 million customers and the DTVLA infrastructure was a tiny fraction of DTV US. I think it takes a lot more than 2.5 million customers to break even these days. If DTV scaled back to 2.5 mil, they would have to renegotiate content contracts for way more $$ due to loss of revenue for providers.
To add more, the DTVLA side of Directv was a money looser for about 10yrs even when they had over 2 million customers and the DTVLA infrastructure was a tiny fraction of DTV US. I think it takes a lot more than 2.5 million customers to break even these days. If DTV scaled back to 2.5 mil, they would have to renegotiate content contracts for way more $$ due to loss of revenue for providers.
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Where did AT&T say they would be off satellites in 5 years? I do not recall seeing them say that anywhere.
Regarding loosing money. You may not make a lot of money but as long as you cover your fixed costs, you have a viable business. And, today, the financial analysts say Dish can do it with 3 million satellite customers. Directv with fewer satellites should have a lower break even number.
I don’t recall them saying this either. I remember I think the CEO stated 10 years at some point but those comments got walked back
There are two factors in determining the break even point. One is the fixed costs, the other the margin per customer (i.e. average customer bill - average customer costs, which is mostly content related costs) If Directv made $1 million per customer a year, their breakeven number would be tiny. If they made $1 per customer they'd already be below their breakeven point.
Since Directv charges more for the same content as Dish, and almost certainly pays less for the same content (since they have double the subscribers) their break even should be even lower than suggested.
The breakeven for DTVLA depends on its average margin per customer, which I'm guessing is probably a lot lower than in the US. That's why it didn't make money at 2 million, not because 2 million is a number where DTV USA can't be better than breakeven.
Since Directv charges more for the same content as Dish, and almost certainly pays less for the same content (since they have double the subscribers) their break even should be even lower than suggested.
The breakeven for DTVLA depends on its average margin per customer, which I'm guessing is probably a lot lower than in the US. That's why it didn't make money at 2 million, not because 2 million is a number where DTV USA can't be better than breakeven.
I've read an official ATT announcement somewhere and a 5 year plan was mentioned which included transitioning customers away from satellite to broadband within 5yrs. Several current ATT/Directv employees have also told me the same thing. That plus recent internal ATT/DTV changes clearly point towards getting away from satellites.
On the DTVLA thing, they were already leveraging many existing content contracts and technology from the US side and only had one satellite for much of DTVLAs existence. In the beginnings of DTVLA the cost per customer was similar to DTV US during the same time. Compare that with US DTV and its big fleet of satellites and broadcast centers and huge number of employees. DTVLA could operate at a lower cost than DTV US and it still lost money for a good 10 years even with 2 million plus customers. DTVLA was even in bankruptcy for awhile until the Latin American market perked up and the customer base finally grew. At one time I had a DTVLA breakdown of cost per customer and I'll try to find it, even though I could not post it.
On the DTVLA thing, they were already leveraging many existing content contracts and technology from the US side and only had one satellite for much of DTVLAs existence. In the beginnings of DTVLA the cost per customer was similar to DTV US during the same time. Compare that with US DTV and its big fleet of satellites and broadcast centers and huge number of employees. DTVLA could operate at a lower cost than DTV US and it still lost money for a good 10 years even with 2 million plus customers. DTVLA was even in bankruptcy for awhile until the Latin American market perked up and the customer base finally grew. At one time I had a DTVLA breakdown of cost per customer and I'll try to find it, even though I could not post it.
You may want to find that announcement and re read it. There have been no official announcements stating that
I'll look, but in the mean time how do you explain current employees saying the plan is to unplug satellites in 5yrs and they have already made changes in that direction?
You mean like launching a new satellite which is scheduled in three months? Why would they build and launch a new satellite if they were planning on shutting satellite down in five years? Even if they had already paid for it, they could easily find a buyer since it can be modified before it launches. The only reason they need T16 is if they plan to keep satellite a lot longer than five years.
If they said something like "transitioning customers away from satellite to broadband" that could easily mean marketing wise they plan to sell the IP product first, and only sell people satellite if they can't get decent broadband or insist on satellite. Which makes sense for them since it will cost them far less to set up a new customer with the IP product than it does to set them up with satellite.
Current employees also said the HS17 would be commercial only and probably about 400 other things they have no clue about. ATT stock would have nose dived if that was the plan so shortly after they shelled out billions for directv. Sat service will be going and probably going strong for the next decade if not longer
And exactly what changes have they made in that direction?
T16 was bought and built to a point that DTV could not back out. I can't say who told me that but they are related to the project.
ATT disbanded the group and laid off everyone responsible for satellite station keeping. ATT has all but eliminated the group that is responsible for RF uplink projects and the only projects on the books I know of are for Latin America which will rely on satellites for a long time to come. ATT has eliminated much of the people who maintain RF uplink equipment at uplink sites. I'm told that ATT has eliminated most if not all satellite receiver research and development.
On the other hand I'm told of fiber connectivity to uplink sites that are mind boggling. Sites that already had very impressive connectivity that ramped up big time for only one thing, streaming. There is more but I don't want to post things that could be traced back to particular employees.
On the other hand I'm told of fiber connectivity to uplink sites that are mind boggling. Sites that already had very impressive connectivity that ramped up big time for only one thing, streaming. There is more but I don't want to post things that could be traced back to particular employees.
Don’t worry. We won’t rat out that CSR you spoke to in India
Satellites have been put into storage, have been sold before or even after launch, and have been modified to varying degrees before launch. And the Hubble, after.
Launches get rescheduled and cancelled. Launch slots get sold.
And that portion of the business can be re-evaluated down the line. As OTT costs rise, the appeal may dim. There is an inherent efficiency in sending one set of signals to millions over millions of signals to millions.
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Launches get rescheduled and cancelled. Launch slots get sold.
And that portion of the business can be re-evaluated down the line. As OTT costs rise, the appeal may dim. There is an inherent efficiency in sending one set of signals to millions over millions of signals to millions.
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So it sounds like they are outsourcing stuff like station keeping that AT&T doesn't see at core to its overall business. They can probably pay someone else to do it cheaper than keeping that expertise in house. Same reason companies outsource everything from IT to janitorial work. That doesn't mean they are dropping satellite. And not really much point in further R&D for satellite receivers - the HS17 is a fully mature product development-wise, there aren't any new capabilities they can give it. Just tweaking for cost cutting etc.
Makes sense that they'd need a lot of fiber connectivity for streaming, that they are going to streaming is not news to anyone. That they intend to drop satellite entirely which makes no business sense whatsoever - especially in light of planning to launch a satellite in May that they would have exactly ZERO need for it if they plan to drop satellite in five years - would be.
Yesterday I called a person at DTV who is basically in charge of RF uplinks at a major DTV site and his instructions from his management is they are shutting down US satellite uplinks in 4 to 5 years. That is not hearsay, its not speculation, its from a current employee who's job is keeping uplinks on air. Unless you have other real info from current DTV management, you are just guessing. I will tell you when I am guessing or if I have a hunch, but this is real and its a fact.
So keep dreaming up reasons for DTV to stay on air for eternity or rationalize why they can't pull the plug on satellites. Meanwhile they are gearing up to feed all customers via broad band and making plans to shut down the US satellite fleet.
So keep dreaming up reasons for DTV to stay on air for eternity or rationalize why they can't pull the plug on satellites. Meanwhile they are gearing up to feed all customers via broad band and making plans to shut down the US satellite fleet.
