Directv 16 Launch Schedule

[nelson61]

Tentative Date: May 10, 2019
Launch Vehicle: Ariane 5 ECA (VA249)

Arianespace launch schedule

FCC Filing and Tech Details

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[nelson61]

If we can believe the top dog at AT&T, this will be their last satellite .

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using the SatelliteGuys app!

 

[slice1900]

It will be, their oldest remaining in-use satellite by the end of the year will be D11 (technically D10, but its transponders can be taken over by T16 so if it failed it wouldn't be an issue) So they'll be taken care of until around 2030 or so.

BTW, that first link looks like May 10th, not May 16th.

 

[nelson61]

It will be, their oldest remaining in-use satellite by the end of the year will be D11 (technically D10, but its transponders can be taken over by T16 so if it failed it wouldn't be an issue) So they'll be taken care of until around 2030 or so.

BTW, that first link looks like May 10th, not May 16th.

thanks - fixed the date

 

[Jimbo]

If we can believe the top dog at AT&T, this will be their last satellite .

Sent from my SM-G955U1 using the SatelliteGuys app!

Lets hope not.

 

[slice1900]

Lets hope not.

Why? You think there will be any reason to continue offering satellite beyond 2030?

 

[IcEWoLF]

Why? You think there will be any reason to continue offering satellite beyond 2030?

By then 5G will be coast to coast and tv providers will be able to provide tv streaming services over the air wireless signals.

When 5G becomes a thing we will see a lot more providers offering Streaming TV service.
Let’s face it, that is the future along cloud dvr service.

It’s too expensive to invest in satellite launch, it’s cheaper for companies to start offering streaming over the air.

 

[Jimbo]

Why? You think there will be any reason to continue offering satellite beyond 2030?

You can always hope.

 

[Jimbo]

By then 5G will be coast to coast and tv providers will be able to provide tv streaming services over the air wireless signals.

When 5G becomes a thing we will see a lot more providers offering Streaming TV service.
Let’s face it, that is the future along cloud dvr service.

It’s too expensive to invest in satellite launch, it’s cheaper for companies to start offering streaming over the air.

Only if they have all the bugs taken care of by then .... I don't want to move to streaming and then have to change every 3 month due to inept software.
Also with each move to a different provider you have a different gui to deal with.
Theres about 10 out there now ... htere won't be more than that by then as alot will fall off ...
Streaming will cost about the same as D* did ... it's already more than that in some cases ... when I started with D* it was $40 p/m

 

[nelson61]

A changing to another era maybe followed by a quick change to yet another era?

Directv 16 appears to signal what may be the end of KU satellites for Directv.

Years back, the brains thought DBS (KU) was essential for reliable,small antenna, satellite reception.
Much effort (with caution) was used to develop the 9 degree satellite spacing and the "eastern" and "western" KU satellite slots.

Then, Hughes decided to get into the satellite "internet type" business (long before it became a viable business).
They built and launched the Spaceway satellites which used KA transmissions and sophisticated phased array antennas to delivery service/
The business was too early and a dud and they ended up converting the satellites to KA television.

KA satellite TV turned out to be very reliable and, wham bam, today KA is the principle source for Directv transmission.

Today, The Directv KU satellites are essentially surplus.
It's going to be interesting to see what they do with those licenses/satellites during the next year or two.

Meanwhile , streaming is coming on fast and someday, KA may face a similar fate.

 

[CSM]

A changing to another era maybe followed by a quick change to yet another era?

Directv 16 appears to signal what may be the end of KU satellites for Directv.

Years back, the brains thought DBS (KU) was essential for reliable,small antenna, satellite reception.
Much effort (with caution) was used to develop the 9 degree satellite spacing and the "eastern" and "western" KU satellite slots.

Then, Hughes decided to get into the satellite "internet type" business (long before it became a viable business).
They built and launched the Spaceway satellites which used KA transmissions and sophisticated phased array antennas to delivery service/
The business was too early and a dud and they ended up converting the satellites to KA television.

KA satellite TV turned out to be very reliable and, wham bam, today KA is the principle source for Directv transmission.

Today, The Directv KU satellites are essentially surplus.
It's going to be interesting to see what they do with those licenses/satellites during the next year or two.

Meanwhile , streaming is coming on fast and someday, KA may face a similar fate.

HD stays out longer using the KA band.

 

[slice1900]

A changing to another era maybe followed by a quick change to yet another era?

Directv 16 appears to signal what may be the end of KU satellites for Directv.

Why do you say that, given that both it and T15 have a full complement of 32 Ku transponders? They are dropping 110 & 119 not because they don't like Ku, but because they don't like having such a wide arc that makes LOS issues more of a problem, make aiming the dish a little harder because you have to worry about tilt, and aren't worth the expense of putting satellites there given they only have 3 and 11 transponders, respectively.

Directv is going to continue to utilize all 32 transponders at 101 until they day they turn out the lights on their satellite offering.

Theoretically they could go to a smaller, rounder dish since they wouldn't need the oval any longer, though I doubt they will consider it worth the hassle to design a successor to the Slimline.

They used Ka (and now reverse band) because they could get access to a LOT more bandwidth that way. If 4K becomes big they will be able to deliver a hundred or so 4K channels via satellite. Dish won't, they don't have the bandwidth to ever offer more than a handful of 4K channels without compressing them so much there's no point to calling them "4K", unless they add new slots.

 

[nelson61]

Why do you say that, given that both it and T15 have a full complement of 32 Ku transponders? They are dropping 110 & 119 not because they don't like Ku, but because they don't like having such a wide arc that makes LOS issues more of a problem, make aiming the dish a little harder because you have to worry about tilt, and aren't worth the expense of putting satellites there given they only have 3 and 11 transponders, respectively.

Having a capability or willingness to spend money or not spend money has nothing to do with what they are doing.

Directv will essentially be using only one (1) of the 8 Region 2 DBS KU slots assigned to the United States.

Dish is using 4 United States slots and leasing an additional 3 other DBS slots from Canada and Mexico.

Similar to Directv, I have an old car sitting in storage. I could use it but choose not to because I also have other newer cars I like better..

 

[Jimbo]

Why? You think there will be any reason to continue offering satellite beyond 2030?

Because people don't like change, particularly, older people.

 

[slice1900]

Because people don't like change, particularly, older people.

Doesn't matter if people want change, there have to be enough satellite customers for it to make financial sense to launch a satellite in 2030 or so. There's no way of knowing how many there will be, only that there will be a lot fewer than today. I've estimated the cost of building/launching a satellite at 10 cents per customer per year, but those assumptions are built on Directv having 20 million customers and a satellite lasting 20 years. If they have only 2 million customers that 10 cents becomes a dollar. If they assume their satellite offering only has a further life of 5 years instead of 20 that dollar becomes four dollars. And that's one satellite, they might need several within a few years in 2030.

 

[Jimbo]

IF the Sat was only going to last 5 years, then thats a no brainer, don't do it, but we know from thier history, 10-15 is more likely.

 

[slice1900]

IF the Sat was only going to last 5 years, then thats a no brainer, don't do it, but we know from thier history, 10-15 is more likely.

I meant 5 years after 2030. The current fleet (once T16 launches and 95/110/119 slots are retired) should last until around 2030, so I think it is safe to say Directv will continue offering satellite until then. If Directv wanted to keep offering satellite beyond their first satellite failure they'd need to build/launch a new one. Or I suppose allow all the DMAs served by whichever satellite fails to lose their locals - they could easily stand to lose CONUS from one of them, especially by 2030 when it is highly likely there will be fewer channels so they could probably lose more than one.

But if you are making a launch decision in 2030 you can't assume a 20 year life for the satellite because there's no way it would be used that long.

 

[JohnL]

Most streaming business are Hemorrhaging money trying to compete with each other. As the streaming industry starts to mature and the competition weeds out or absorbs the competitive choices, costs will ramp up and end up costing VASTLY more per channel that what Cable/Satellite subscribers currently pay. The likely costs in a matured market for streaming service eventually will be almost what you pay now for a Bundled service like Cable/Satellite.

Secondarily, we will be more of a country of Have and Have NOT's as rural Broadband is unlikely to be able provide a cost competitive/speedy service to a reach about 5 percent of the American Population. I might be wrong, but this country has a long history of marginalizing small subsets of our population due to geography, Social ital norms, as well as many other reasons, mostly because we as culture allow Capitalist pressures to dictate the answers to societal problems and or resources.

 

[Inclined Orbit]

Yes, what he said. However, ATT has all the cheap Directv contracts for content thanks to 20 million or so subscribers and I don't know of any streaming service that can compete against ATT on content costs. ATT was sniffing around Directv years before they purchased it and the talk back then was ATT wanted the content contracts. We didn't know if it was to build up the U-verse service or what but we had a feeling ATT was not that interested in the satellite fleet.

I still believe ATT will stick close to their advertised 5 year plan and try to supply all customers via broad band and shut down satellite transmissions around 2023-2024.

Most streaming business are Hemorrhaging money trying to compete with each other. As the streaming industry starts to mature and the competition weeds out or absorbs the competitive choices, costs will ramp up and end up costing VASTLY more per channel that what Cable/Satellite subscribers currently pay. The likely costs in a matured market for streaming service eventually will be almost what you pay now for a Bundled service like Cable/Satellite.

Secondarily, we will be more of a country of Have and Have NOT's as rural Broadband is unlikely to be able provide a cost competitive/speedy service to a reach about 5 percent of the American Population. I might be wrong, but this country has a long history of marginalizing small subsets of our population due to geography, Social ital norms, as well as many other reasons, mostly because we as culture allow Capitalist pressures to dictate the answers to societal problems and or resources.

 

[Jimbo]

Most streaming business are Hemorrhaging money trying to compete with each other. As the streaming industry starts to mature and the competition weeds out or absorbs the competitive choices, costs will ramp up and end up costing VASTLY more per channel that what Cable/Satellite subscribers currently pay. The likely costs in a matured market for streaming service eventually will be almost what you pay now for a Bundled service like Cable/Satellite.

This is what some of us have been saying all along.