DIRECTV unlikely to keep NFL Sunday Ticket

[raoul5788]

What is there to talk about on point? There are a couple of facts and lots of questions about implementation. That leads to speculation.


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Pretty sure he's referring to how I took the thread off topic.

 

[Bruce]

Pretty sure he's referring to how I took the thread off topic.

Well, at least you were correct.

 

[cosmo_kramer]

Pretty sure he's referring to how I took the thread off topic.

Hardly. That happened months ago…..

 

[raoul5788]

Hardly. That happened months ago…..

No doubt the thread has gone awry numerous times. I thought you were referring to my recent post.

 

[Bilbo1]

Hardly. That happened months ago…..

Random meanders are what keeps threads like this fun. It’s like a slow motion train wreck. You just got to keep checking in to see how bad it has gotten.


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[Juan]

Any updates on dish and the voom channels?

 

[cosmo_kramer]

Random meanders are what keeps threads like this fun. It’s like a slow motion train wreck. You just got to keep checking in to see how bad it has gotten.


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Be careful what you ask for....

 

[Bilbo1]

Be careful what you ask for....

It is quarantined in one thread after all.


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[cosmo_kramer]

It is quarantined in one thread after all.


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You don’t get around here much, do you?

 

[NashGuy]

What's more it appears to be incredibly terrible math.

The seekingalpha article says the assumptions are 1.7 million "new" subscribers to Youtube TV (plus NFLST) and a half million NFLST only subscribers.

If you do the math 1.7 million subscribers to Youtube TV at $65/month is $1.326 billion, and 2.25 million subscribers to NFLST at $300/year is $675 million.

OK, that adds up to $2.001 billion so $1 million a year in profit after paying the NFL $2 billion, right? Only if you assume Google has zero cost not only for delivering NFLST, but for delivering Youtube TV! And they obviously don't for the latter after paying $10 for ESPN and $25 for local channels, not to mention the rest. They probably don't even make a profit at $65/month but even if they do it is only a few dollars a month not $65 a month!

Now obviously Youtube is banking on individually targeted advertising to create revenue, using the 2 to 4 minutes per hour reserved for local affiliates (for NFLST and other network broadcasts) or commercial insertion slots for "cable TV" channels like ESPN or HGTV. How much they make from that is the unknown, but that's obviously where they hope to monetize NFLST (especially if they can get people to "cord cut" from cable/satellite and sign up for their virtual cord)

In addition, you won't even need to subscribe to YouTube TV in order to buy NFLST. Yes, it will be offered via YTTV but they're also going to sell it a la carte inside the regular free YouTube app via its new "Primetime Channels" subscription platform (which currently offers Showtime, Starz, Paramount+, etc., very much like Prime Video Channels and Apple TV Channels).

I've said before that I don't see how NFLST, at the inflated price the NFL wanted, made sense for anybody. And sure enough, analysts are saying that the deal will likely be a money-loser for Google. Here's a new analysis claiming that Google will need 4.5 million subs to NFLST just to break even. That's well over twice the peak sub number of 2 million that DTV attracted to the package.

https://www.lightreading.com/videom...n-nfl-sunday-ticket---analyst-/a/d-id/782588?

I can certainly see Google getting more subs than DTV has gotten, given that they'll sell it as a standalone thing that isn't tied to a full cable TV package with a professionally-installed rooftop dish and two-year contract. But can they get over 2x the number of subs that DTV got, given that they'll apparently have to keep the premium pricing, i.e. about $300 a pop? Seems unlikely to me.

But hand it to the NFL, the cachet of their product has apparently helped them find another sucker for the next seven years. If I was an Alphabet shareholder, I wouldn't be too pleased.

 

[Juan]

In addition, you won't even need to subscribe to YouTube TV in order to buy NFLST. Yes, it will be offered via YTTV but they're also going to sell it a la carte inside the regular free YouTube app via its new "Primetime Channels" subscription platform (which currently offers Showtime, Starz, Paramount+, etc., very much like Prime Video Channels and Apple TV Channels).

I've said before that I don't see how NFLST, at the inflated price the NFL wanted, made sense for anybody. And sure enough, analysts are saying that the deal will likely be a money-loser for Google. Here's a new analysis claiming that Google will need 4.5 million subs to NFLST just to break even. That's well over twice the peak sub number of 2 million that DTV attracted to the package.

https://www.lightreading.com/videom...n-nfl-sunday-ticket---analyst-/a/d-id/782588?

I can certainly see Google getting more subs than DTV has gotten, given that they'll sell it as a standalone thing that isn't tied to a full cable TV package with a professionally-installed rooftop dish and two-year contract. But can they get over 2x the number of subs that DTV got, given that they'll apparently have to keep the premium pricing, i.e. about $300 a pop? Seems unlikely to me.

But hand it to the NFL, the cachet of their product has apparently helped them find another sucker for the next seven years. If I was an Alphabet shareholder, I wouldn't be too pleased.

It won't be $300 alacart....they have to break even atleast...last time I checked google wasn't a charity

 

[Bruce]

It won't be $300 alacart....they have to break even atleast...last time I checked google wasn't a charity

You also used to post if there is no deal yet there will be no deal.

No one knows what the price will be, but Google made over $70 Billion in profit in 2021, they know what they are doing and if they take a hit for the first year or so, they can afford it.

If DirecTV can get 2 Million to sub to it from DirecTV’s 10 Million Household Subscribers, maybe they can get 6 Million-up subs from 110 Million Household that get Broadband.

Even if they only get 3-4 Million subs, does not mean they lose 2 billion, more like 1 billion, then how many YTTV subs do they get from ST, what about Advertising, then of course Data , which Google loves to sell.

There is a lot of potential.

 

[Juan]

You also used to post if there is no deal yet there will be no deal.

No one knows what the price will be, but Google made over $70 Billion in profit in 2021, they know what they are doing and if they take a hit for the first year or so, they can afford it.

If DirecTV can get 2 Million to sub to it from DirecTV’s 10 Million Household Subscribers, maybe they can get 6 Million-up subs from 110 Million Household that get Broadband.

Even if they only get 3-4 Million subs, does not mean they lose 2 billion, more like 1 billion, then how many YTTV subs do they get from ST, what about Advertising, then of course Data , which Google loves to sell.

There is a lot of potential.

They are not going to sell it alacart at a loss..just not going to happen...we just have to wait for a price..a casual fan only needs one stream..a sports gambler would want several...directv would be same price for both but I bet there will be a upcharge for multiple streams from Google....too many unknowns to set a price

 

[Bruce]

They are not going to sell it alacart at a loss..just not going to happen...we just have to wait for a price

Again, I would never gamble based on your predictions.

If they make the price too high, then no one will subscribe either, so still a loss.

My guess $200 to subscribers of YTTV and $250-300 to You Tube Premium Channels.

And yes, people could just subscribe to YTTV for 3 months, so maybe some kind of agreement, if so, still a lot cheaper then DirecTV.

Also, YTTV does not have much churn and is the only Live TV services gaining in subs, over 5 million the last reported quarter, based on all the insider Financial Reports I still get, Google will report YTTV is at 6 million when the next quarterly report comes out.

Pretty good for a service that is only about 6 years old.

 

[Juan]

Again, I would never gamble based on your predictions.

If they make the price too high, then no one will subscribe either, so still a loss.

My guess $200 to subscribers of YTTV and $250-300 to You Tube Premium Channels.

And yes, people could just subscribe to YTTV for 3 months, so maybe some kind of agreement, if so, still a lot cheaper then DirecTV.

Also, YTTV does not have much churn and is the only Live TV services gaining in subs, over 5 million the last reported quarter, based on all the insider Financial Reports I still get, Google will report YTTV is at 6 million when the next quarterly report comes out.

Pretty good for a service that is only about 6 years old.

That changed .I could dig up all your posts predicting 10 million subs for sunday ticket..but I wont..we just have to wait and see how they sell it..directv had residential and commercial rights for 1.5 billion...google bought residential rights for 2 billion...we can't make a direct price comparison..so we wait and see what happens and how google prices it..2 different delivery systems..directv allowed multiple tvs relatively easy...we will have to wait fir google..google could put up a interactive multigame stream...or maybe something else

 

[Jimbo]

It won't be $300 alacart....they have to break even atleast...last time I checked google wasn't a charity

So ????
$450 ?

 

[Juan]

So ????
$450 ?

I am not even gonna speculate but $300 × 4 million subs is about 1.2 billion in revenue...google paid 2 billion a year

 

[Bruce]

That changed .I could dig up all your posts predicting 10 million subs for sunday ticket..but I wont..

I said that if they could sell it at $100 and before someone posted it had to be at a premium price.

Which now might not be true, NFL has says Google can price it how they wish, but I assume there are some limitations on that because of CBS/Fox, we shall see.

 

[Bruce]

I am not even gonna speculate but $300 × 4 million subs is about 1.2 billion in revenue...google paid 2 billion a year

And again, there are other ways to make revenue, NFL has also said this deal is different then the deal they had with ZDirecTV, in what ways we do not know yet.

And again, Google makes over $70 Billion a year on average, based on your posts, that is a $800 Million loss, they can afford it.

And again, Google is a very intelligent company, they know how to make money.

 

[Jimbo]

I am not even gonna speculate but $300 × 4 million subs is about 1.2 billion in revenue...google paid 2 billion a year

If it goes much over $300, ,they won't get nearly enough people to break even ... if they even get close I'd be surprised.