Economy causes Blu-Ray Stutter

[meStevo]

Blu-ray stutters in face of tough economy, HD downloads

This article been discussed at all?

Guessing this disparity they describe is more than the normal variance they'd expect to see week to week.

Aberration or sign of the times?

 

[Bobby H]

It's an abberation.

engadget has an interesting article which states the Blu-ray format's market share has nearly doubled since the demise of HD-DVD.
Blu-ray's market share has almost doubled since HD DVD's demise - Engadget HD

Blu-ray sales rise and drop, sometimes in big percentages swings, week by week based more on how a new BD release appeals to the limited demographic making up Blu-ray player owners at this point.

Some throwaway comedy like Baby Mama has only 2% of its sales coming from Blu-ray. Then look at Rambo. 12.8% of its unit number sales were in Blu-ray. Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles scored even better. 17.4% of its unit sales were in Blu-ray.

Engadget also makes a good point that the BD haters in the technology press conveniently only air the negative news about Blu-ray. They don't write about 30% increase in sales compared to a previous week. They only like to report the percentage drops and then make up more stupid comments about how downloads are going to take over or something else we've heard 1000 times already.

 

[meStevo]

I think many people take the good news with a grain of salt because there was so much work to twist the numbers during the format wars, there's little reason for them to not continue it and bolster confidence in the format and get more to buy-in.

 

[jayn_j]

Heard a news article this morning on the radio that stated that video game sales and dvd rentals were up and expected to be strong in the financial downturn. They compared it to dish night at the movies during the great depression.

 

[allargon]

I think many people take the good news with a grain of salt because there was so much work to twist the numbers during the format wars, there's little reason for them to not continue it and bolster confidence in the format and get more to buy-in.

Definitely... I keep hearing about Blu-Ray as a percentage of DVD plus how it is doing as well as or better than DVD did against VHS in its early years. What I'm not reading about is the unit sales/revenue of Blu-Ray vs. DVD in the early years.

Also, there's still the PS3 factor. Yeah, 17% of sales of Terminator were Blu-Ray, but only 2% of Baby Mama sales were Blu-Ray. It needs to move past the young male/gamer demographic to advance.

Not quite a fair comparison. Baby Mama is a new release. T2 is a catalog title on its umpteenth DVD release. Most DVD buyers already have some version and are not likely to upgrade. In fact, that DVD ultimate edition was oversaturated and sat in the $5 remainder bins for 2 years. That means that the only significant market was Blu-Ray.

We're talking about "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles Season 1" which was *NOT* a new release, but a day and date release with the DVD.

 

[jayn_j]

Also, there's still the PS3 factor. Yeah, 17% of sales of Terminator were Blu-Ray, but only 2% of Baby Mama sales were Blu-Ray. It needs to move past the young male/gamer demographic to advance.

Not quite a fair comparison. Baby Mama is a new release. T2 is a catalog title on its umpteenth DVD release. Most DVD buyers already have some version and are not likely to upgrade. In fact, that DVD ultimate edition was oversaturated and sat in the $5 remainder bins for 2 years. That means that the only significant market was Blu-Ray.

 

[Zookster]

Until BD prices drop significantly, consumers, young male or not, will always be faced with the decision: does a slight comedy like "Baby Mama" really need to be seen in glorious HD with 7.1 DTS-MA audio. They're likely to save their money for something like "The Dark Knight" or "Iron Man." I rented Baby Mama on BD from Netflix and my GF and I were both totally underwhelmed with the PQ/AQ. An upconverted SD DVD would have been more than adequate.

 

[allargon]

Until BD prices drop significantly, consumers, young male or not, will always be faced with the decision: does a slight comedy like "Baby Mama" really need to be seen in glorious HD with 7.1 DTS-MA audio. They're likely to save their money for something like "The Dark Knight" or "Iron Man." I rented Baby Mama on BD from Netflix and my GF and I were both totally underwhelmed with the PQ/AQ. An upconverted SD DVD would have been more than adequate.

Again...this is the attitude I'm talking about. That's the gamer attitude that comedies and dramas don't deserve the consideration that action and horror movies do.

 

[meStevo]

Ya, I am happily prepared to plunk down $40 for Iron Man on Blu-Ray. Probably do the same for Hulk. Find it cheaper elsewhere? Cool, I'll get it there, but that discount is just a bonus.

The overall value of most movies currently just don't warrant the prices. Will be our first full price purchase since some Celine Dion concert I bought for the wife earlier in the year (or was that last?)

 

[navychop]

Pathetic little story, designed to mislead. HD downloads aren't even a fraction of being large enough to be a factor in the market. And won't be for quite some time. Notice that the article about the "threat" from HD downloads was from last February? No support for any of that actually happening.

I don't see the "magic fairy" putting high speed broadband into many homes anytime soon.

 

[meStevo]

If it continued though, HD Downloads wouldn't be competing with BD, they'd be competing with DVD. This perceived decline wont continue because Iron Man and Hulk over the next 2 months will improve sales and they will be tagged as 'explosive growth!! look at us!!' instead of the extraordinary months they are. We are going to get 'compared to September and October last year this marks a xx% increase in sales!!!'

If it continued or flattened out outside of these big releases (and we won't ever see data that will allow us to make this determination), this article could signal the beginning of the peak of Blu-Ray's success, and it's market has been filled outside of a share of DVD buyers waiting for the 'right price'.

As a BD buyer it would suck, I want it to do well and continue to drop in price.

 

[Zookster]

Again...this is the attitude I'm talking about. That's the gamer attitude that comedies and dramas don't deserve the consideration that action and horror movies do.

I think, personally, a non-action movie would certainly be worth owning on BD if there was something particularly worthwhile in the realm of its cinematography, art direction, custume design, etc. There have been a number of "art films" come out over the past couple of years that I was disappointed weren't released on BD. A movie like "Atonement" for example. In the case of the "Baby Mama" BD, my girlfriend even questioned whether it was in high-def in terms of its PQ...again why bother paying a premium over SD for that.

 

[meStevo]

I would have bought There Will Be Blood if it wasn't just a copy of the DVD version in HD. No action movie, just a fantastic one with a great director, actor and cinematography.

Despite that, if it was released the same day as the DVD version I'd have bought Blu-Ray instead, even at MSRP probably.

Iron Man, Hulk, Batman... those will be a massive portion of the Blu-Ray purchases this year, and will be the reason we see 'huge growth' in the format.

 

[Paradox-SJ]

Pathetic little story, designed to mislead. HD downloads aren't even a fraction of being large enough to be a factor in the market. And won't be for quite some time. Notice that the article about the "threat" from HD downloads was from last February? No support for any of that actually happening.

I don't see the "magic fairy" putting high speed broadband into many homes anytime soon.

You call downloads pathetic....go see how much money M$ generated from its VOD service via XBL...there is nothing pathetic about it...and its growing.

I think there is room for all mediums but have to agree that unless prices dall BD will slice its on throat...or become the 21st cent version of laser disc

 

[teachsac]

Prices for hardware in two years have dropped more and much quicker than DVD ever did. It took a good five years for that to happen. Most BD manufacturers have dropped 50-70%. 1299 for the BD10 to 399/499 MSRP (can behad for 299/399) for Panasonics. 999 for Sony to now 299/399 for the 350/550. 999 for the Samsung to 299-499 for the 1500/2550. 1599 for the Pioneer to 599/799 for the 51/05.

Software is not following suit. Especially from Fox and newcomer Universal. At last look two days ago, their prices on new releases on Amazon have actually increased $2. They really need to take a look at their business structure and thinking. I'll pay 24.99 for a new release. Paid that much for SdDVD for quite a while. $27.99 if it's really good. I will not pay $27.99 for a catalog. $19.99 if it's really good. I like Warner's recent strategy of low cost no frills catalogs with really good PQ and AQ for 14.99.

Any business that wants to survive needs to take a serious look.

S~

 

[Bobby H]

HD downloads are currently a major rip off -at least relative compared to what I can do for renting a movie on Blu-ray from Hollywood Video, Blockbuster or Hastings.

To wit, a 24-hour self-destructing pay per view movie from Apple iTunes or Dish Network's PPV setup costs $5.99 or $6.99. E* definitely wants $6.99 for their version of 1080p PPV VOD.

Let's compare that to what I get from video stores only a mile from where I live. I can rent a Blu-ray movie from Hollywood Video for 5 days for $4.99 + sales tax. Hastings charges $5.99 + sales tax for a 7 day rental. You get any discs that came with that movie, the superior quality, all the extras -all for that much longer rental term. Apple and E* pathetically only offer 24 hours. VERY LAME. They can stick it for all I care. The downloads are terribly inferior in image quality to Blu-ray and don't even offer lossless audio either. Again, VERY LAME. They want all those big bucks but dictate low quality and 24 hour rental terms. Their business models need to be executed.

 

[mike123abc]

I do not buy DVDs any more. If it does not come out on blu-ray it does not exist to me.

I will not download a movie until it is in HD equivalent to BD, and you get lifetime ownership of it, including the ability to redownload it. So, I suppose I will never download a movie unless it is free.

 

[Bobby H]

I have the same attitude. I'm finished with buying movies on DVD. It was pretty much that way once I bought my new HDTV and PS3.

Further, I'm not going to buy just any movie simply because it's on Blu-ray either. The 1080p/24 format, when viewed on a large HDTV screen (I have a 52" Sony Bravia XBR4), is very revealing of flaws in a video transfer. "Reference quality" video transfers look fantastic, but others coming from old HD telecine transfers on video tape often look soft, lacking certain levels of detail and even have sub-par color.

I read a lot more reviews on upcoming Blu-ray releases than I did for DVD when that format was new. In the past, I bought too many DVDs that I wound up not watching very much. So anything I buy now has to be good enough in terms of picture quality and audio quality for me to bother adding it to my movie collection.

About the only way I'm going to buy a movie on Blu-ray with mediocre video quality is if it is a really great movie and the movie company has done as good a job possible getting it onto Blu-ray.

 

[navychop]

The only way I buy a DVD is if I'm certain it will never be on BD. I adopted that policy months before I bought my first BD player (PS3). In fact, I owned several BDs before I had a player to watch them on.

 

[yourbeliefs]

I think DVDs will be around for quite a while longer and BD will probably be more of a niche product as well. DVD is so popular and so rampant already, and with the abundance of upconverting DVD Players and the memory of the last major media transition of VHS to DVD still fresh in everyone's mind, I think we'll be having BDs and DVDs in our libraries for a while.

Another thing that I think hurts BD is that the upgrade from DVD to BD is not as drastic as the VHS to DVD upgrade. I mean DVD showed us new ways of viewing movies that simply had not been seen before. BD seems to be what has been seen before, just better looking and sounding, and more expensive.

All that said, I love the fact that my PS3 has BD. BD has made me push ahead my plans of upgrading my audio and video setup to take advantage of 1080p/TrueHD sound. I plan on taking a trip to the local walmart on Tuesday to pick up my copy of Iron Man in BD.