Let's look ahead a ways. February 17, 2009 comes and goes. As in Berlin, most people don't even notice the digital transition. Their cable and satellite boxes still work the same, performing any conversion for them.
As local and national broadcast programming goes to HD (yes, HD not just digital) in prime time, there are no more SD versions of the programming- analog or digital. So the 381 will take that HD OTA and convert it to feed that old analog only TV most people will still have. Fine, so far.
But more and more programming sent over satellite will be in HD. Never all of it, but more and more of it. The 381 won't receive it and downconvert like it does OTA. There will be an incentive to upgrade to another box to receive the HD programming- whether it feeds an HDTV or downconverts to an ancient analog TV. Or feeds a cheapie digital TV that does not display anything in HD (might see those for bottom feeders, until the display cost between 720 lines and 480 lines is trivial, and less than the downconversion circuitry- and on small TVs you couldn't see the difference anyway).
Then, would someone who paid $50 or $100 for an STB that they've gotten over 5 years of use out of, expect an upgrade deal? Not much of one, if anything. We're not talking 942 prices here. And this box might qualify for the $40 vouchers that we're supposed to get 2 of. If any are still available when the vouchers come out.
So I don't like this 381. But I guess it's not as dumb an idea as I first thought. Charlie gets a few bucks out of equipment that would otherwise be discarded. He probably will get a few more subscribers out of it. And he knows full well that every purchaser will be looking to upgrade equipment and programming just a few years down the road. Smart man.