Former HD-DVD Supporters, Do You Want BD To Fail?
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music is not movies. I can download a song in 10 seconds, however it would take me several hours to download an HD movie. Again, this may improve. Also, you must remember that music is cheaper on Itunes most of the time that at the stores, and the quality of the music is not as good. I didn't say movie downloads would never come around, just not anytime soon for many reasons. Quality, download time, DRM issues. Why would I want to buy a movie online for $20.00 when I would then have to spend additional money to store it? Be it additional hard drives, BR-Discs, whatever. Also I would be spending my time putting it on the discs if I chose that route.
Music is a lot easier as it take up relatively little space. A good quality HD movie is going to take up 30-50 GB per movie. 20 movies fills up a $200 1TB hard drive. Plus, who trusts hard drives for long term (5+ years) storage? I would have to spend 20 a piece on a BD disc to store it long term.
I can see all of this happening in the future sometime, but for now, most of the public does not even know how to make a music CD, please don't think the majority of consumers are going to want to learn how to do all this downloading and saving of HD movies. Given the choice, a vast majority of people are going to go buy a product at the store rather than going through all the steps and costs mentioned above. Its just not going to happen.
While holding a 19% share is VERY good for any retailer, the article points out the next digital download music site Amazon at 6%. Thats 25%. Lets just say the other sites for purchasing digital music combined are at 5%. All together, thats 30% of music sales; 70% of music sales are still traditional. Which I admit, I thought it would be still higher than that. But again, thats Music, not movies.
Music is a lot easier as it take up relatively little space. A good quality HD movie is going to take up 30-50 GB per movie. 20 movies fills up a $200 1TB hard drive. Plus, who trusts hard drives for long term (5+ years) storage? I would have to spend 20 a piece on a BD disc to store it long term.
I can see all of this happening in the future sometime, but for now, most of the public does not even know how to make a music CD, please don't think the majority of consumers are going to want to learn how to do all this downloading and saving of HD movies. Given the choice, a vast majority of people are going to go buy a product at the store rather than going through all the steps and costs mentioned above. Its just not going to happen.
While holding a 19% share is VERY good for any retailer, the article points out the next digital download music site Amazon at 6%. Thats 25%. Lets just say the other sites for purchasing digital music combined are at 5%. All together, thats 30% of music sales; 70% of music sales are still traditional. Which I admit, I thought it would be still higher than that. But again, thats Music, not movies.
True. Maybe even longer.
But this isn't what this is all about.
Download has to catch on as a paradigm. And it takes somebody like Apple to accomplish that.
Microsoft can't do that - they would attach Windows in some form to it and everybody would be screaming.
Sony can't do that: "Here comes another stupid Sony format!".
Only Apple/S.Jobs, who's ideas are genious before they leave his head, with unrivaled loyalty can do that.
Now, half the job is done - downloads as a mean to get entertainment is here to stay.
Somebody has to bridge the music-movies gap - in terms of price and technology - and it's done.
It's not even neccessary they are all HD from the start. Just such option should be available.
As soon as this happens, BD will become the next LD, i.e. lose mind share, the glitz and glamor of something new.
Diogen.
No, I hope that disc based media sales survive. Portability is more important to me.
I hate the idea that the "villain" triumphed, in my opinion, and that my usability took a severe hit with the elimination of no region coding, combo media, and several interactivity capabilities that worked for every HD DVD player out of the box (none of this profile 1.0, 1.1,etc. crap).
That being said, I knew the patient was going to flatline when Warner flipped. I ordered my Samsung Duo player that day. An imperfect box, but the best bridge that I could buy that didn't take up two inputs on my receiver (I'm maxed out already - and I've got 6 video inputs .... The Duo Player, VCR, Satellite, Wii, Laserdisc (Yes, still use it occasionally), and my XBox360....)
I don't see any visual difference in the disc formats, and I don't have a TrueHD receiver, so that didn't do anything for me. I am using the 1080p HDMI output to my Sony Black Pearl Projector (in the words of the immortal Joe Walsh... "they make great TVs"), so the picture is topnotch on a 92" screen....
I hate the idea that the "villain" triumphed, in my opinion, and that my usability took a severe hit with the elimination of no region coding, combo media, and several interactivity capabilities that worked for every HD DVD player out of the box (none of this profile 1.0, 1.1,etc. crap).
That being said, I knew the patient was going to flatline when Warner flipped. I ordered my Samsung Duo player that day. An imperfect box, but the best bridge that I could buy that didn't take up two inputs on my receiver (I'm maxed out already - and I've got 6 video inputs .... The Duo Player, VCR, Satellite, Wii, Laserdisc (Yes, still use it occasionally), and my XBox360....)
I don't see any visual difference in the disc formats, and I don't have a TrueHD receiver, so that didn't do anything for me. I am using the 1080p HDMI output to my Sony Black Pearl Projector (in the words of the immortal Joe Walsh... "they make great TVs"), so the picture is topnotch on a 92" screen....
They most probably will. Just like CDs have.
And DVDs might be the first casualty if/when video downloads take off.
But just like in music convenience trumpeted over quality (MP3 vs. SACD/DVD-A), there is no reason to suspect movies will have a different path...
Ain't MP3 players the ultimate portable devices?
Diogen.
where have you been?...XBL is the Leading Online Provider of High-Definition Content TODAY....and without windows....
and if you live in a major metro and can get reall broadband...HD movies start in mins. NOT hours to download due to streaming and buffering.
I can see the benifit of downloadable movies for rental purposes. But I would never buy a movie to keep via a download. I just don't see any benefit in it at all. And I am a major tech geek, but I do have common sense also.
Thanks, I know. And watched a handful.
But if BD is 0.5% of the DVD market, XBL is probably 1% of the BD market. Or close.
Just a guess, haven't seen numbers.
It's a good start. But it's only 720p, no advanced audio, done with a 3 generation old encoder and takes less space than DVD9.
I believe it delivers at least 90% of BD's value, but is missing on "buzz". Microsoft can't create it.
I though if the rumors MS buying Netflix materialized into something, there would be hope for a business model...
Diogen.
I don't want BD to fail. However, they're not making it easy on themselves with their high prices and limited genre of teenage male oriented movies. Blu-Ray is working on the replication capacity issue which has been a problem since day one, despite many on the Blu side denying there were any constraints. The player prices don't just need to come down, they need to all be profile 2.0--period. It's ridiculous that to get a fully functional Blu-Ray player you are forced to buy a loud, ugly game console w/ a weird workaround for an IR remote or buy a buggy combo unit that may or may not be upgraded to profile 2.0 in the future.
I don't wish ill on those who have BD, but I would like this chapter in history to end and become an lesson in the books about how not to pursue competition. As long as BD stays around, it hurts chances of coming up with a comprehensive and market-wide solution that is fully featured and fully formed out of the gate (much like HD-DVD was and I think BD may never reach).
We need a format that everyone agrees on and supports and one that is released with most everything conceivable in place. Some of the more exotic audio features don't need to be present in all players, but all fundamental features like PIP and interactivity should be part of the baseline so that software producers don't have to wonder about what percentage of the market can take advantage of their efforts.
We need a format that everyone agrees on and supports and one that is released with most everything conceivable in place. Some of the more exotic audio features don't need to be present in all players, but all fundamental features like PIP and interactivity should be part of the baseline so that software producers don't have to wonder about what percentage of the market can take advantage of their efforts.
Someone posted on this site a list of 5-6 different providers of movie downloads that ceased operations. Major names, too. Anyone have a link to that?
One was Wal-Mart. Maybe Movie Gallery was another one. Who else?
And the industry looks so bleak that HP discontinued HP Video Merchant Services.
One was Wal-Mart. Maybe Movie Gallery was another one. Who else?
And the industry looks so bleak that HP discontinued HP Video Merchant Services.
1) I do not want BD to fail. I like HD movies and want to buy more. But I've also learned that they are not a quantum leap over upconverted DVDs like I once thought they were - they're only an incremental upgrade.
2) But I think BD will fail. It just "feels" like it's too elitist to get very far. I admit that that "feeling" comes mostly from posts I've read here and on some of the BD advocacy sites, so the elitist tendency that I sense may not continue on into the general population.
3) I think HDDVD was the better format for consumers and it failed. Therefore I don't hold out much hope for BD.
4) I will not buy BD until I'm convinced it won't fail, and prices drop. I am content enough with upconverted DVD for the moment, so I don't mind waiting a while for BD to prove itself before I put any more money into HD. At one time I thought HD was so much better, but over time I realized that it really isn't. Not for the money they want for it (goes for both BD and HDDVD). An incremental upgrade cannot command a significant price premium, as HD does now.
2) But I think BD will fail. It just "feels" like it's too elitist to get very far. I admit that that "feeling" comes mostly from posts I've read here and on some of the BD advocacy sites, so the elitist tendency that I sense may not continue on into the general population.
3) I think HDDVD was the better format for consumers and it failed. Therefore I don't hold out much hope for BD.
4) I will not buy BD until I'm convinced it won't fail, and prices drop. I am content enough with upconverted DVD for the moment, so I don't mind waiting a while for BD to prove itself before I put any more money into HD. At one time I thought HD was so much better, but over time I realized that it really isn't. Not for the money they want for it (goes for both BD and HDDVD). An incremental upgrade cannot command a significant price premium, as HD does now.
First of all, thanks to everyone for the replies. I think there's a lot of good insight in this thread.
Regarding haertig's post, these are some very interesting points. IMHO the thing that could hurt BD the most is not downloads or HD VOD but the incremental factor he mentioned.
They could ensure the success of this format tomorrow if they dropped the price so that it was only a $5 premium over DVD.
With new DVDs costing $16 at Best Buy and catalog titles going for less than $10, charging $25-40 for BluRay just isn't going to cut it.
With new DVDs costing $16 at Best Buy and catalog titles going for less than $10, charging $25-40 for BluRay just isn't going to cut it.
IMO this would get a ton more people with PS3s who are on the fence/not interested to start buying into Blu-Ray. If this were the case, there would be no more fluke 30%+ HDDVD weeks due to poor BD sales. This will go away naturally as HDDVD disappears, but that's focusing on the wrong part of the problem.
How do you know this? Do you have a link to any surveys or marketing research or is this just an assumption?
I agree there aren't a lot of standalones and that needs to change, but it seems silly for a parent to buy an expensive next-gen console for an SD TV when 1) we are only now in the past few months beginning to see some good titles come out of the PS3 2) the PS2 is still being supported with new games 3) there are other gaming options including PC games and the 360.
A bigger issue is the gamers who bought a PS3 primarily for games, and spend their disposable income on $60 games rather than $30 BD titles.
And it is.
But not as silly as assuming those parents actually know what SD/HD stands for...
Diogen.
Ditto. Well enough said that I would have been happy to have written that myself.
Fitzie
