What will the number be?

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Bob Haller

Bob Haller

Supporting Founder
Original poster
Supporting Founder
Sep 11, 2003
25,124
4,061
pittsburgh pa
Soon E should be releasing its sub numbers for the first quarter of 2011.

Heres some past numbers, from the bridge...

3Q 09 13,851,000
4Q 09 14,100,000
1Q 10 14,337,000
2Q 10 14,318,000
3Q 10 14,289,000
4Q 10 14,133,000
1Q 11 ???????????

Now some friends who sell E report they are canabalizing E and converting people to D, and that selling E has gotten harder. Locally the comcast triple play teamed with a TIVO has saved me big bucks

Over this same period D has gone from 18,441,000 to 19,223,000 so despite the economy sub growth is possible.

Do you believe E will get under 14 million subs? any predictions for profits?
 
I predict DISH will show another loss, but it will be a lot smaller loss then last quarter.

Retailers that DISH is starting to rebound while their DIRECTV sales are starting to decline.

It's that see saw effect we keep on seeing.
 
Does anyone have the numbers comparing E to D for at least the last few years? I believed that up to the changes E had always seen sub growth but I could be wrong:(

Churn is of interest because charlie said the total aquistion cost is near a grand per sub, once they throw in the free movie package.....
 
Here's are the DISH sub numbers since 2007.
1Q 2007: 13.415 mil
2Q 2007: 13.585 mil
3Q 2007: 13.695 mil
4Q 2007: 13.78 mil
1Q 2008: 13.815 mil
2Q 2008: 13.79 mil
3Q 2008: 13.78 mil
4Q 2008: 13.678 mil
1Q 2009: 13.584 mil
2Q 2009: 13.61 mil
3Q 2009: 13.851 mil
4Q 2009: 14.1 mil
1Q 2010: 14.337 mil
2Q 2010: 14.318 mil
3Q 2010: 14.289 mil
4Q 2010: 14.133 mil
 
Bob Haller said:
Churn is of interest because charlie said the total aquistion cost is near a grand per sub, once they throw in the free movie package.....
Click to expand...
I wonder where that figure comes from...

Installer 1 hour = $150
Dish -> $150
Equipment =
211k -> 109
722k -> 250
922k -> 350
​
you'd have to have someone getting two 922's for the 1000 dollar install wouldn't you? And on secondary receivers dish makes 100 to 150 back in a year
 
TG2 said:
I wonder where that figure comes from...

211k -> 109
722k -> 250
922k -> 350
Click to expand...

You have the installer, the commisions paid to the dealer, the cable (seen the prices of copper lately?), multi dish switch, the REAL cost of equipment. (A 922 may cost $350 but it costs a lot more to make a 922 I still hear the cost is up over $800) and thats only the first receiver...

Then you have free or discounted programming for the first year, thats another cost there...

I can see how its over $1000 for each new customer.
 
TG2 said:
I wonder where that figure comes from...

Installer 1 hour = $150
Dish -> $150
Equipment =
211k -> 109
722k -> 250
922k -> 350
​
you'd have to have someone getting two 922's for the 1000 dollar install wouldn't you? And on secondary receivers dish makes 100 to 150 back in a year
Click to expand...

the numbers were on the conference call by charlie himself he mentioned they include the free premium movie packages and presumably other goodies like lower prices or new subs.... plus perhaps some $ for advertising? its not a made up number.

The issue is churn while they may lose a number of subs replacing them at a grand each is costly.

Having done a rough calculation if the loss rate is constant this last quarter will see them under 14 million subs, and show a loss of subs for over a year.

geez I still remember when it was all exponential growth.
 
I would like to see the numbers in the NY area. With the loss of MSG a while back, and the loss of SNY, it would be interesting to see if people are bailing when their contracts are up.
 
Here are Directv sub numbers (probably not as accurate)
1Q 2007: 16.19 mil
2Q 2007: 16.32 mil
3Q 2007: 16.56 mil
4Q 2007: 16.835 mil
1Q 2008: 17.12 mil
2Q 2008: 17.249 mil
3Q 2008: 17.405 mil
4Q 2008: 17.706 mil
1Q 2009: 18.166 mil
2Q 2009: 18.39 mil
3Q 2009: 18.526 mil
4Q 2009: 18.645 mil
1Q 2010: 18.745 mil
2Q 2010: 18.845 mil
3Q 2010: 19.01 mil
4Q 2010: 19.2 mil
 
The competition in FIOS served areas is brutal, and the comcast triple play saves serious bucks:)

Hasnt E lost nearly all of their phone company bundling partners?

My triple play with phone internet and tv is around the same amount I paid for E before the fee increase, JUST FOR E which forced me to shop around.

I bought a used tivo here and upgraded to lifetime service when the prepaid part ran out. I hung a fax on the phone line that gets little use, but its cheaper to have phone too.
 
I predict a gain of 10k. Dish has been doing a lot of 5 packs under $50 advertising. So # of subs will go up and the profit will go down... I would say a bigger gain but I think the start of the quarter was bad because of the programming disputes at the end of last year.
 
Bob's new avatar...

BeanCounter1.gif
 
I'm not a Dish shareholder, so as long as I remain a (relatively) happy Dish sub I don't see why it matters if they gain or lose a few thousand subs over a quarter.
 
cosmo_kramer said:
I'm not a Dish shareholder, so as long as I remain a (relatively) happy Dish sub I don't see why it matters if they gain or lose a few thousand subs over a quarter.
Click to expand...

Same here. Numbers don't quite matter to me. The sat co's could be doing lots more to keep subs happy and minimize churn. They could stop putting customers in the middle of retransmission disputes. I nearly bailed out on Dish Network over the FX dispute. Charlie could stop removing RSNs, and make more of them full-time HD. And Dish could certainly take care of its paying subscribers in Puerto Rico. From what I've read here and elsewhere, folks there have their noses out of joint with Dish Network with good reason.

TL;DR version: Keep existing customers happy so they won't bail, and reduce the churn. Customers stay put, company makes money.
 
no but continued sub losses at some point will hurt stock price.

If its a year of losses, and they get under 14 million, share price will be effected....

I hope this thread survives to discuss actual numbers when they become available.

do tell are the audit nazis still active? I remember when someone from the media got audited, and didnt they trash E on air?
 

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