What's happening with the Sat Launch?

[mike123abc]

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down.

Oh, by the way: There is no Plan B. And there is no Hidden Capacity. IF there were, we would have seen it by now.

The only significant advantage that Dish has over Directv right now is the 622/722. And that is only in the area of recording OTA in HD (three at once).

By the end of the month, Directv will have about 30 more national HD channels than Dish, including a couple that I want that Dish is not going to have this year.

Further, E11 is to be launched on Rockets manufactured by the same people who manufactured the launch vehicle for AMC 14. I would expect that the investigation would halt launches by a significant period of time (months).

The upshot:

* Expansion in the satellite industry is being driven by HD.

* Directv has about 30 more HD channels than Dish right now

* Assuming that Directv's satellite goes up without a hitch (not a safe bet), They will have 50-70 more by the end of the year

* Dish is in serious trouble.

Dish still has options. They have already filed to move E6 to 77... Saying Dish is down 50% for a satellite that they do not even own, and does not effect current service in any way is just rediculous.

If E7, E8, or E10 went out there would be more serious problems. Especially if they are using E6 at 77 and do not have a back satellite in orbit until they launch E11.

All Dish has to do now is move internationals off of 61.5 to 118.7 (which they are slowly doing anyways) and they will have room for around 70 new HD channels. They still have the spots on 61.5 for local into locals for tons more markets.

All this could end up doing is cause people to continue to have to use 2 dishes to get HD.

 

[Ronnie-]

The issue of how the two companies count their HD channels is a topic of much debate (see the war zone). That being said, there is little debate that many of the D* HD channels are currently NOT broadcasting HD programming.

As rad pointed out, this is pretty much false.

 

[KAB]

This thread reminds me of the fact that I never liked/never had children.

 

[Hemi 6.1]

All Dish has to do now is move internationals off of 61.5 to 118.7 (which they are slowly doing anyways) and they will have room for around 70 new HD channels. They still have the spots on 61.5 for local into locals for tons more markets..

So why didn't they do this already then if its possible?. It would be much cheaper and easier,than a satellite launch! Quite frankly, I think they need AMC-14 much more then you think. I highly doubt , Charlies saying , "OH WELL, sh*t happends"

 

[mike123abc]

So why didn't they do this already then if its possible?. It would be much cheaper and easier,than a satellite launch! Quite frankly, I think they need AMC-14 much more then you think. I highly doubt , Charlies saying , "OH WELL, sh*t happends"

There is no doubt they would love to have a working AMC-14, and losing it probably will hamper a lot of plans. Dish gets 2 TPs from SA on 61.5 at the end of the month. That would free up 12-14 national HD channels in space. They could move NY and Boston HD LiL to spots when they turn on spots freeing up 2 more TPs.

That is up to 28 new HD channels without even moving anything off the satellite. They have been moving the internationals slowly over. There are a lot of TPs of internationals (9 or so).

What I see happening in reguards to this is that they will not be able to fully utilize the 77 slot. E6 may not be able to cut it. They really need the beam shaping ability of AMC-14 which was actually built for the 77 slot. To keep from interfering with Canada E6 may have to point too far SE and keep a lot of the intended markets uncovered.

 

[Barry Erick]

It's an antenna that can alter the beam pattern sent to the ground so the satellite can be used at any orbital slot. The satellite also has the standard antenna as well.

For DBS the orbit MUST be geosyncronous, and the only way is in the VanAllen Belt at 22,500 miles. It can be used for other things in the current orbit, but not anything Dish or Direct does.

 

[rad]

For DBS the orbit MUST be geosyncronous, and the only way is in the VanAllen Belt at 22,500 miles. It can be used for other things in the current orbit, but not anything Dish or Direct does.

I think you mean the Clarke Belt (named after C. Arthur Clarke) The VanAllen belt is a radiation belt.

 

[Slamminc11]

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down.

Oh, by the way: There is no Plan B. And there is no Hidden Capacity. IF there were, we would have seen it by now.

The only significant advantage that Dish has over Directv right now is the 622/722. And that is only in the area of recording OTA in HD (three at once).

By the end of the month, Directv will have about 30 more national HD channels than Dish, including a couple that I want that Dish is not going to have this year.

Further, E11 is to be launched on Rockets manufactured by the same people who manufactured the launch vehicle for AMC 14. I would expect that the investigation would halt launches by a significant period of time (months).

The upshot:

* Expansion in the satellite industry is being driven by HD.

* Directv has about 30 more HD channels than Dish right now

* Assuming that Directv's satellite goes up without a hitch (not a safe bet), They will have 50-70 more by the end of the year

* Dish is in serious trouble.

LOL, 50%!?! Thanks, I needed a good laugh this afternoon! You willing to put your money where your mouth is?

 

[John Kotches]

Not "my" math. It's from the articles linked. Take up your issue with them. And I don't know at what point they calculated 98%, but suspect since they published the figure, it was accurate at the time.

The math doesn't work. It doesn't matter whose math it is. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

...

A lot of stuff about Russia and Proton deleted, because all I said was the math didn't add up.

And BTW, launches are made from Kazakhstan, referred to as a "third world nation" in these threads, because it was at one time part of the Soviet Union. And is closer to the equator than most of Russia/the USSR, making it a good location to launch from. Less fuel is needed to reach orbit from places close to the equator. Read up a little on orbital mechanics. Florida was picked for good reason, not just political maneuvering.

Once again, a non sequitor to my post. Please, if you're going to address multiple posts, can you give proper attribution?

Cheers,

 

[tigerfan33]

LOL, 50%!?! Thanks, I needed a good laugh this afternoon! You willing to put your money where your mouth is?

Wall Street will know nothing of Dish plans. What they will know is if and when people KEEP leaving and going to another provider. I want some of this bet too. If the stock tanks it will be over an alleged accounting scandal (cough, cough, Enron , Healthsouth) or something of that nature, not because of what happened Friday.

When I am wrong I am wrong.lol

 

[nlk10010]

Wall Street will know nothing of Dish plans. What they will know is if and when people KEEP leaving and going to another provider. I want some of this bet too. If the stock tanks it will be over an alleged accounting scandal (cough, cough, Enron , Healthsouth) or something of that nature, not because of what happened Friday.

I tend to agree that the stock may go down a bit but there'll be investors willing to buy it right up.

Here's where Charlie's closed-mouth strategy about what the satellites will be used for may pay off. We probably know as much as any outsiders about what E* is doing and STILL we're not anywhere near sure. The satellite wasn't owned by Charlie and no one outside the company knows what it was going to be used for, anyway. Stock down, perhaps a few % at open, then comes back up. I don't see much movement.

This from someone who, back in the 30s, thought TV was the wave of the future and bought US Broadcasting (well, I'm not really that old).

 

[Andrewwski]

For DBS the orbit MUST be geosyncronous, and the only way is in the VanAllen Belt at 22,500 miles. It can be used for other things in the current orbit, but not anything Dish or Direct does.

By "orbital slot", one generally means over which line of longitude the geostationary satellite lies on. Therefore, the 61.5 orbital slot refers to a geostationary satellite that remains over the line 61.5 degrees west longitude.

And as stated above, it's not the Van Allen Belts, but the Clarke Belt.

And I'm still getting the feeling that nobody's getting the difference between geostationary and geosynchronous.

 

[John Kotches]

By "orbital slot", one generally means over which line of longitude the geostationary satellite lies on. Therefore, the 61.5 orbital slot refers to a geostationary satellite that remains over the line 61.5 degrees west longitude.

And as stated above, it's not the Van Allen Belts, but the Clarke Belt.

And I'm still getting the feeling that nobody's getting the difference between geostationary and geosynchronous.

Or those of us that get it don't continue talking about it

 

[Slamminc11]

Wall Street will know nothing of Dish plans. What they will know is if and when people KEEP leaving and going to another provider. I want some of this bet too. If the stock tanks it will be over an alleged accounting scandal (cough, cough, Enron , Healthsouth) or something of that nature, not because of what happened Friday.

But Tiger, we are supposed to mark it down. 50% tomorrow if Charlie doesn't say anything. The squirrel said so.
(I guess it doesn't matter that Dish didn't build the thing nor do they own it nor did they not have any control over the launch which means that he really can't say anything until others do)

 

[jimboeau]

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down..

Squirrel you are a nut..........

 

[drdroo]

Where's E-11 sitting? Its not built yet?

Good point but...

To the best of my knowledge they'd have to totally reconfigure it to use it there. Probably not 4 years but probably an easy year+ if that's the case.

E11 is slated for 110W CONUS as far as I know.

They could maybe trade the launch slot with SeaLaunch they have for E11 to someone who was pushed further down the list in order to have time for reconfig, but that's still a real PITA. It would depend on needs at 110 vs needs at 61.5, etc.

 

[drdroo]

And I'm still getting the feeling that nobody's getting the difference between geostationary and geosynchronous.

Oh I know what the difference is. A Geostationary orbit is also geosynchronous but a geosynchronous orbit isn't necessarily geostationary.

[I'm probably going to get hit for muddying the waters, but it is true. ]

 

[RedSavina]

[I'm probably going to get hit for muddying the waters, but it is true. ]

:snicker

 

[navychop]

The fact is Charlie will be out tons of money tomorrow if he doe not say something about this tonight (SUNDAY). Dish's stock will tank on the open Monday, maybe a loss of 50%, on this news. Mark it down.

Will you feel like a fool if the stock doesn't tank? Will you have the integrity to admit your overreaction, and post same? Few people, including few investors, even knew there was a launch. This delays plans, destroys nothing.

Oh, by the way: There is no Plan B. And there is no Hidden Capacity. IF there were, we would have seen it by now.

Yeah? Because you say so? You really think a major corporation, run by a self made billionaire, never gave any thought to possible outcomes? Do you think they "bet the company" on one launch- and it wasn't even a bird owned by them? You certainly give that impression.

* Expansion in the satellite industry is being driven by HD.

* Dish is in serious trouble.

Hardly. HD subs are a very tiny minority. New subs are still mostly SD. Maybe 30% or at most 40% of the U.S. households have HDTVs, and surveys show less than half actual have an HD signal/source of any kind. That will change in the future. But today, you're looking a small numbers. All this move to HD today is to be ready for future HD subscriber expansion.

"The sky is falling- run for your lives!"

Just FYI, he is....He is switching tomorrow

You think that might be why I posted to kiss his ViP DVR goodbye?

The math doesn't work. It doesn't matter whose math it is. Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

Then don't call it "my" math. And it may well have been accurate at the time they "printed" it. Much more likely than your casual doubts.

Please, if you're going to address multiple posts, can you give proper attribution?

I'll address as many topics as I wish in one post. If you wish to take them all personally, or as an extension to what was being discussed, no skin off my nose.

 

[kstuart]

This place is getting really weird !

Are there Toyota Forums, where people post 20 times a day, and think that Toyota will go out of business because a new factory is delayed ?

- If technically possible, AMC-14 will be sent to 61.5 with a shortened life span. No one crashed E*4 into the ocean simply because the insurance company paid up.

- 99.9% of Dish customers (and stock holders) are not even aware of AMC-14 at all. Undoubtedly there will be a Press Release on Monday saying "we are still waiting for the complete assessment from ILS and SES Americom". (And remember that all statements by public corporations about satellite launches are subject to SEC regulations.)

- E*11 is designed for 110 and will undoubtedly go there. It will replace an existing working satellite that will be freed up, and that could go to 61.5 if AMC-14 cannot make it there.