What's happening with the Sat Launch?

[rocco_fanucci]

ILS is no longer based in the U.S. They'll work with Khrunichev to figure out why the 2nd burn ended 130 seconds too soon.

As to what to do with AMC-14, the decision is up to SES Americom and Lockheed Martin. The satellite's in good shape, in a safe orbit and full of fuel. Charlie and his experts are fully involved, too.

 

[navychop]

ILS is no longer based in the U.S. They'll work with Khrunichev to figure out why the 2nd burn ended 130 seconds too soon.

As to what to do with AMC-14, the decision is up to SES Americom and Lockheed Martin. The satellite's in good shape, in a safe orbit and full of fuel. Charlie and his experts are fully involved, too.

Actually, a major say in what to do is with the insurance companies.

We don't know at this time that the satellite is in good shape. Probably, but not certainly.

It's already been posted that Charlie and Echostar have been told little or nothing. They're "renters" and have little say in the matter at this point. His urging them to "git 'r done" isn't useful. They already have the incentive to do so.

 

[bkushner]

Mr. Kushner,

Thank you for the email.

Unfortunately, we have no specific information right now regarding the
recent satellite launch. We are still planning on adding new HD channels
in the near future.

Please feel free to contact me if you have any further questions or
concerns regarding this issue.

Thank you,

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXx
Executive Communications
Direct: 720-XXX-XXXX
DISH Network Corporation
XXXXXXX@Echostar.com

-----Original Message-----
From: bkushner@snip.net [mailto:bkushner@snip.net]
Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2008 9:02 PM
To: CEO
Subject: Satellite Failure

What does it mean for me as a customer looking for more HD now that the
sateliite to bring more HD has failed?

Thanks

Brian Kushner

 

[tigerfan33]

Mr. Kushner,

Thank you for the email.

Unfortunately, we have no specific information right now regarding the
recent satellite launch. We are still planning on adding new HD channels
in the near future.

Please feel free to contact me if you have any further questions or
concerns regarding this issue.

Thank you,

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXx
Executive Communications
Direct: 720-XXX-XXXX
DISH Network Corporation
XXXXXXX@Echostar.com

-----Original Message-----
From: bkushner@snip.net [mailto:bkushner@snip.net]
Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2008 9:02 PM
To: CEO
Subject: Satellite Failure

What does it mean for me as a customer looking for more HD now that the
sateliite to bring more HD has failed?

Thanks

Brian Kushner

Probably nothing. Go check out the podcast with Bob and Scott.

 

[bkushner]

How do I get to the pocast?

 

[JohnH]

DiSH Network issued an 8-K this morning with relevant info:

EchoStar Communications Corporation - Current Report

Item 8.01. Other Events.

On March 14, 2008, a Proton launch vehicle carrying the SES Americom AMC-14 satellite experienced an anomaly which left the satellite in a lower orbit than planned. While further testing will be necessary, the satellite appears to be functional. Engineers from SES Americom and Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the satellite, are exploring options to potentially bring AMC-14 into its proper orbit. If those efforts are successful, station keeping fuel would be required to correct the orbit, so the service life of the satellite would be substantially reduced.
We intended to lease the entire capacity of the satellite from EchoStar Corporation in order to, among other things, increase the number of high definition channels we offer. Therefore, the launch anomaly will result in a delay in our roll out of some high definition channels, including some local network channels.

 

[tigerfan33]

DiSH Network issued an 8-K this morning with relevant info:

EchoStar Communications Corporation - Current Report

Therefore, the launch anomaly will result in a delay in our roll out of some high definition channels, including some local network channels.

This hurts.

On the bright side it did say " delay of some high definition channels."

 

[bkushner]

Well there you go. No plan B!

 

[vodad]

That option then opens up an entier new can of worms. Which companies encryption/security system do they use. Do they use D*'s Ka band at 99/103 or use E*'s eastern/western arc Ku? Will receivers need to be swapped/replaced or dishes/LNB's. Might be quicker to get get another sat built/lanched

Just put the locals up there with no encryption, They are locals. And most people are going to pay for them. Why worry about the 2% of the people that are going to find a way to recieve them without paying for them.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

Well there you go. No plan B!

Where do you see no "Plan B"?

It say "delay of some high definition channels." it also appears to be optomistic that they can get the satellite into proper orbit. That statement alone actually surprised me.

That means that "if" they can get the satellite in orbit that it could take a little longer then expected to get it there. And "if" it takes a little longer to get the satellite there then it could "delay of some high definition channels."

 

[rocco_fanucci]

Via AFX:

Shares in SES SA fell after the news that SES Americom's AMC-14 satellite failed to reach its intended orbit following its launch on board a Russian Proton Breeze-M launch vehicle on Saturday.

At 9.22 am, SES shares were down 0.65 eur or 4.20 pct at 14.83 eur as the Euronext-100 index lost 17.82 points or 2.17 pct to 802.04.

The incident is 'bad news' and revenues will be hurt starting from 2009, CA Cheuvreux analysts said in a note to clients, adding that the problem has a potential negative impact of 3 pct on their EPS estimate.

There should be no cash impact as the program is insured, the analysts said, keeping a '2 Outperform' rating and 60 eur target.

SES said an anomaly during the second burn of the fourth stage of the rocket resulted in the satellite being placed short of the planned orbit.

The cause is still unknown but SES and Lockheed Martin Corp engineers are exploring options to bring AMC-14 into its proper orbit, it said.

In all scenarios to redirect the spacecraft, onboard fuel will have to be used to propel the satellite to its correct orbital position, thereby reducing its service life, SES said.​

 

[Poke]

Yeah well Direct folks better keep their fingers crossed they dont run into the same problem with their next launch.. Lets hope Dish and Direct will learn to do their Launches here in the U.S. with U.S. made engines..

 

[bayoufats]

I know that no one knows for sure, but does anyone here have any idea about how long it will take to get AMC-14 into the proper orbit (if they can do it), and therefore how much of a delay this will cause to the National HD, and Local HD roll out plans. especially the "Easter Arc" plan. I mean are we talking about a delay of several weeks, several months or 6 months or more?

 

[cparker]

This talk of "Dish better learn to do their launches here in the US with US made engines" I find kind of funny. You think that US space launches do not have failures? It's a world market. Space launches are not being done by slingshot or with bows and arrows by indigenous people wearing body paint. Nobody risks this kind of investment on second-rate or third-rate launch facilities. Space launches are amazingly complex not only to plan but also to implement and the equipment has VERY little tolerance for failure. I think everyone involved in the endeavor knows this going in.

 

[nlk10010]

I know that no one knows for sure, but does anyone here have any idea about how long it will take to get AMC-14 into the proper orbit (if they can do it), and therefore how much of a delay this will cause to the National HD, and Local HD roll out plans. especially the "Easter Arc" plan. I mean are we talking about a delay of several weeks, several months or 6 months or more?

I'm sure those more knowledgeable will chime in, but my understanding is that, if attempted, it could take several months to maneuver that satellite into the proper orbit. After all, you're using small thrusters, designed for fine adjustments to the satellite's orientation, to make it travel 5000 miles up.

That said, no one knows exactly what the "Easter(n) Arc" is or how it was planned to be implemented. For all we know, IF they decide to try to reclaim the sat, plans may not be interrupted for very long. After all, we weren't due to get new channels for several months, anyway. But you're looking at probably several months delay, at best.

 

[Scott Greczkowski]

That said, no one knows exactly what the "Easter(n) Arc" is or how it was planned to be implemented. For all we know, IF they decide to try to reclaim the sat, plans may not be interrupted for very long. After all, we weren't due to get new channels for several months, anyway. But you're looking at probably several months delay, at best.

Again Echostar 3 is there and working and still has some life to it. The Eastern Arc plans can continue moving ahead. Dish may elect to delay some LIL HD rollouts on Rainbow 1 and instead use some transponder space for national programming or national HD where they would make more money. When AMC-14 finally gets there they could shuffle the national HD to AMC14 then turn on the spot beams on Rainbow one.

This issue is going to delay some things but from where I sit its still the plan moves forward.

 

[cparker]

I'm sure those more knowledgeable will chime in, but my understanding is that, if attempted, it could take several months to maneuver that satellite into the proper orbit. After all, you're using small thrusters, designed for fine adjustments to the satellite's orientation, to make it travel 5000 miles up.

I'm not one of those more knowledgeable folks, but I believe the issue is not so much one of simply increasing altitude as it is of increasing velocity. If I understand correctly, the SPEED of the satellite has to be different in the higher orbit than it is in the lower orbit in order to maintain geosync.

 

[bayoufats]

Thanks for the info guys, but we all know how secretive D is about thier plans, however, since they finally did talked about thier HD plans on the last Charlie Chat, and those plans were based on AMC 14 going up succesfully, do you think they will now come out and tell everyone how they plan on recovering from the launch failure, and what impact it will have on thier schedule for new National, and Local HD once they figure things out? You know Charlie said we would have all those new HD channels and LIL's by his next chat in June, so I think he will now have to come out and say if those plans are now on hold, or if they will be delayed, and if delayed what thier new time table is for implemntation of thier master HD plans is now.

 

[Smith P.]

Yeah well Direct folks better keep their fingers crossed they dont run into the same problem with their next launch.. Lets hope Dish and Direct will learn to do their Launches here in the U.S. with U.S. made engines..

OK. Then look at real numbers and select right 'horse':
"To date, Proton has proven no more or less reliable than Briz M.

The Briz M upper stage has flown atop 26 Proton launch vehicles (22 Proton M and 4 Proton K). Four of the launches failed. Two of the failures involved Proton (one stage 2, one stage 1/2). Two involved Briz M.

By comparison, the Ariane 5G series has flown 24 times to date and suffered three failures. One of those failures involved the upper storable propellant stage. Zenit 3SL has flown 25 times and failed three times, including one Block DMSL upper stage failure. Atlas V has flown 13 times and suffered one upper stage failure. Ariane 5 ECA has flown a dozen times with one failure of the core stage engine.

The old Proton K/DM-2M system flew 42 times and failed twice. Both failures involved the Block DM-2M upper stage.

Such is the state of the world's premiere commercial GTO launchers.

- Ed Kyle
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=11859&start=136"

 

[cparker]

#1 Charlie already said there would be a delay in roll out of HD because of this in his filing with the SEC Form-8K.

#2 Nobody in their right mind would be issuing statements on a new timetable when they are still assessing the feasibility of getting AMC14 parked in the correct location. It's still way too early in the game for you to get meaningful answers to the timetable question. Just not gonna happen soon. (oops... there's that word again)