AT&T Should sell DIRECTV to DISH

Jimbo said:

If Streaming cost continue to go down, why do thier cost to the customer keep going UP ?

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This article might help you see why. The cost of delivery is a very small component of the overall cost when you have providers paying 60-80% of their entire revenue for the content. When you add in all the cost for billing, CSRs, and on and on it leaves very little for "streaming cost" or "satellite delivery" or anything like that. Which is why those who believe that streaming will reduce prices are barking up the wrong tree - that will only happen if you choose to get LESS content than you do now by i.e. getting only what you can watch on Netflix and OTA versus everything cable/satellite has.

https://www.multichannel.com/news/altice-usa-pays-80-percent-of-video-revenue-in-programming-costs

The plan is to end duplicate jobs...and then consolidate operations in a place like india...hard to do with satellite uplink centers

slice1900 said:

This article might help you see why. The cost of delivery is a very small component of the overall cost when you have providers paying 60-80% of their entire revenue for the content. When you add in all the cost for billing, CSRs, and on and on it leaves very little for "streaming cost" or "satellite delivery" or anything like that. Which is why those who believe that streaming will reduce prices are barking up the wrong tree - that will only happen if you choose to get LESS content than you do now by i.e. getting only what you can watch on Netflix and OTA versus everything cable/satellite has.

https://www.multichannel.com/news/altice-usa-pays-80-percent-of-video-revenue-in-programming-costs

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slice1900 said:

This article might help you see why. The cost of delivery is a very small component of the overall cost when you have providers paying 60-80% of their entire revenue for the content. When you add in all the cost for billing, CSRs, and on and on it leaves very little for "streaming cost" or "satellite delivery" or anything like that. Which is why those who believe that streaming will reduce prices are barking up the wrong tree - that will only happen if you choose to get LESS content than you do now by i.e. getting only what you can watch on Netflix and OTA versus everything cable/satellite has.

https://www.multichannel.com/news/altice-usa-pays-80-percent-of-video-revenue-in-programming-costs

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Hear me now and believe me later: as we progress through the early 2020s, there will be only two categories of TV providers:

1. DBS satellite TV (and there will only be room for one at some point)
2. content owners who operate nationwide streaming services, delivering their own content with the (possible) option to bundle in smaller third-party content sources too

I think DISH will be the lone operator in category 1, eventually. Category 2 will be populated by AT&T/WarnerMedia, Comcast/NBCUniversal, Disney, Amazon, Apple, CBS/Viacom, Google, and Netflix (although I'm doubtful that Netflix will ever offer to bundle in outside sources). Some, though not necessarily all, of the other players in category 2 will offer live streaming "cable TV," either through a dedicated app for that (e.g. YouTube TV, AT&T TV) or integrated into their first-party content on-demand app (e.g. Hulu). Some might only offer third-party on-demand sources with very limited live content (e.g. Amazon, Apple) without ever getting into the cable channel bundle distribution business.

All those current cable TV + broadband distributors that aren't also content owners -- Charter, Verizon, Cox, Altice, CenturyLink, Frontier, RCN, Sparklight, etc. -- will just get out of the business of running their own cable TV operation and instead partner with one or more nationwide streaming service to pitch to their broadband subs for a commission.

The funny thing about predictions...they never take into account unexpected technical challanges...streaming leads to piracy...much easier to do on the internet than satellite....not to mention new companies such like facebook or google basically materializing out of thin air...people like free

NashGuy said:

Hear me now and believe me later: as we progress through the early 2020s, there will be only two categories of TV providers:

1. DBS satellite TV (and there will only be room for one at some point)
2. content owners who operate nationwide streaming services, delivering their own content with the (possible) option to bundle in smaller third-party content sources too

I think DISH will be the lone operator in category 1, eventually. Category 2 will be populated by AT&T/WarnerMedia, Comcast/NBCUniversal, Disney, Amazon, Apple, CBS/Viacom, Google, and Netflix (although I'm doubtful that Netflix will ever offer to bundle in outside sources). Some, though not necessarily all, of the other players in category 2 will offer live streaming "cable TV," either through a dedicated app for that (e.g. YouTube TV, AT&T TV) or integrated into their first-party content on-demand app (e.g. Hulu). Some might only offer third-party on-demand sources with very limited live content (e.g. Amazon, Apple) without ever getting into the cable channel bundle distribution business.

All those current cable TV + broadband distributors that aren't also content owners -- Charter, Verizon, Cox, Altice, CenturyLink, Frontier, RCN, Sparklight, etc. -- will just get out of the business of running their own cable TV operation and instead partner with one or more nationwide streaming service to pitch to their broadband subs for a commission.

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What about the cost savings of maintaining the warehouses where they keep the DTV equipment, Also maintaining the trucks the insurance for them and gas. Also not getting off the ladder to replace a bad LNB or upgrade the LNB to 4K.

CSM said:

What about the cost savings of maintaining the warehouses where they keep the DTV equipment, Also maintaining the trucks the insurance for them and gas. Also not getting off the ladder to replace a bad LNB or upgrade the LNB to 4K.

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They don't get off the ladder now ... or they are not suppose to be.

CSM said:

What about the cost savings of maintaining the warehouses where they keep the DTV equipment, Also maintaining the trucks the insurance for them and gas. Also not getting off the ladder to replace a bad LNB or upgrade the LNB to 4K.

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Those $7/month fees on equipment pay for all that plus throw out a lot of profit.

Jimbo said:

They don't get off the ladder now ... or they are not suppose to be.

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They apparently will if you allow them to install some kind of safety device on your roof, or at least that is what the Dish installer that came to my house said. My previous house had one that the builder installed, so the Dish installer didn't have to install one.

slice1900 said:

Those $7/month fees on equipment pay for all that plus throw out a lot of profit.

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Those fees ( not just from DirecTV ) help drive away a lot of customers.


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theBruce said:

Those fees ( not just from DirecTV ) help drive away a lot of customers.

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Yup. Netflix, Roku and their ilk have revolutionized the world of TV. When an upstart disrupts an industry, the established dominant players can forever remain in denial (and watch their customer base dwindle away) or they can embrace the new reality and join in the disruption.

Satellite TV will be able to largely stick with their old ways of pricing because it will simply be for folks who have no other choices, living on an old-tech island cut off from the revolution on the mainland.

AT&T wants to focus on the mainland, where streaming video has become the norm. Charging high hardware rental fees and locking customers into two year agreements don't cut it on the mainland any more. AT&T understands this. They're moving on.

NashGuy said:

Yup. Netflix, Roku and their ilk have revolutionized the world of TV. When an upstart disrupts an industry, the established dominant players can forever remain in denial (and watch their customer base dwindle away) or they can embrace the new reality and join in the disruption.

Satellite TV will be able to largely stick with their old ways of pricing because it will simply be for folks who have no other choices, living on an old-tech island cut off from the revolution on the mainland.

AT&T wants to focus on the mainland, where streaming video has become the norm. Charging high hardware rental fees and locking customers into two year agreements don't cut it on the mainland any more. AT&T understands this. They're moving on.

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Right, they are counting on using much more detailed information on their subscribers to sell much more highly targeted ads and then force the subscribers to watch those ads, or just sell the information period to actually make streaming profitable. Right now, this is the whole foundation that the live streaming industry is based on. Only time will tell if it is bedrock or a house of cards, but I think the tech just isn't there (yet?). I've seen my AdSense profile from when I worked in online media. It was 40% accurate at most, which, admittedly is 2x better than when I started working in online media 12 years earlier, but still not something I would be able to sell with a straight face as a truly accurate system. I personally would rather pay the hardware fees and avoid the ads (and profiling), but a lot of people won't care. They'll just go with the cheaper solution. Maybe it will bite them at some point and maybe not. I've seen too much to trust that kind of relationship, even with big companies like Google. If Dish ever decides to make it so I cannot skip ads at all, I would likely just stick an antenna up for live locals and buy seasons of the few things we want to see when new on Amazon or Vudu. The only thing we care about seeing live is local news. Everything else is DVRed or streamed (without commercials).

ncted said:

They apparently will if you allow them to install some kind of safety device on your roof, or at least that is what the Dish installer that came to my house said. My previous house had one that the builder installed, so the Dish installer didn't have to install one.

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They need some type of safety harness, AND A SECOND GUY to meet OSHA standards, at least from what I understand. It is that second guy that's the reason why they don't want to deal with dishes that require them to leave the ladder, because it would double their cost.

theBruce said:

Those fees ( not just from DirecTV ) help drive away a lot of customers.


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Not arguing that, but that's part of the way that cable/satellite has been able to survive the greater and greater share that content costs are taking of their overall revenue. People complain about the yearly price increases on their packages, but they are actually increasing prices by LESS percentage wise than their content costs are going up. Directv (and some cable companies) have raised the per TV fees over the years to help - assuming that it is easier to raise prices a bit more on people who have a lot of TVs which seems reasonable since people who have a lot of TVs generally have bigger houses and thus are better off on average.

All this is why simply taking the same cable/satellite "package" model and streaming it isn't going to result in lower prices. Even at the SAME package price if they don't get to charge for equipment they probably have a hard time breaking even. They rely on that $15/month "advanced receiver fee" and $7/month per TV fee to not only subsidize the equipment cost (which is probably about $3/month for a Genie and under $1/month for a client over their five year expected lifetime) and the install cost (which at ~$200 is about $8/month over the 24 month contract term) but is probably also pretty much equal to the profit Directv makes from residential customers. Streaming has no install and no equipment (if you provide/buy your own) but without those fees it may have little or no profit for Directv, either...

People kept saying they wanted "ala carte", they are going to get it whether they want it or not at some point in 5-10 years when cord cutting destroys the traditional "package" model of TV entirely. Then you'll have a dozen or more streaming services to choose from at $5 to $15 a month, each with a small piece of the overall content pie. You'll have to switch subscriptions to a new provider every couple months and binge the content they have that you want, and move onto the next - since you can watch "on demand" there's no reason to care whether you watch it when the new episodes come out.

The wildcard is stuff people will always prefer to watch live - sports and news. High value sports will be the last to convert to a streaming model, and I'm not really sure how exactly that will work without requiring sports rights to take a big hit since non-sports fans will no longer be subsidizing them like they are today (that's where over 1/3 of your cable/satellite bill goes today)

slice1900 said:

They need some type of safety harness, AND A SECOND GUY to meet OSHA standards, at least from what I understand. It is that second guy that's the reason why they don't want to deal with dishes that require them to leave the ladder, because it would double their cost.

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Have you guys ever seen this Safety harness ?

Tampa8 said:

Are you saying there are not areas with no cable at all? There are areas of Ct with no cable, and here in Florida I often top out at 30MBPS downloads on an advertised "up to" 100

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There has NEVER been cable where I live and NEVER will. Up until December I was stuck with 4.0/256k DSL from CenturyLink. Fortuinately we have a very forward thinking electric cooperative that has ran fiber to the home/business here now, so I am lucky enough to have 1Gpbs/1Gpbs fiber, but where I am is an outlier for a rural area.


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What if to get people to try DTV over IP would be for AT&T to let DTV satelliteTV customers to upgrade to 4k without installing a new dish or 4K LNB would be for them to get DTV over IP for free using the Android TV box?

Jimbo said:

Have you guys ever seen this Safety harness ?

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I never have. I know that you can buy safety harnesses at places like Lowes but I have no idea if they are OSHA compliant and if not what the differences are.

I've never once seen a roofer use any sort of fall protection, I guess OSHA must not have the time/people to go after small time employers like that.

slice1900 said:

I never have. I know that you can buy safety harnesses at places like Lowes but I have no idea if they are OSHA compliant and if not what the differences are.

I've never once seen a roofer use any sort of fall protection, I guess OSHA must not have the time/people to go after small time employers like that.

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I’m in a Villa and one Villa on either side would they still not got get off the ladder? Didn’t know if that would be safer than a house since roofs are on either side? The dish is in the middle on the roof.

bobvick said:

There has NEVER been cable where I live and NEVER will. Up until December I was stuck with 4.0/256k DSL from CenturyLink. Fortuinately we have a very forward thinking electric cooperative that has ran fiber to the home/business here now, so I am lucky enough to have 1Gpbs/1Gpbs fiber, but where I am is an outlier for a rural area.

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Hopefully we see more rural electric co-ops doing that. I know the federal government just announced new grants out of the Universal Service Fund to help expand rural broadband and some of the recipients will roll out fiber like your co-op did. BTW, does your provider offer you some kind of cable TV service with set-top box over their fiber connection? Or just let you figure out whatever streaming service(s) to use on your own?

CSM said:

What if to get people to try DTV over IP would be for AT&T to let DTV satelliteTV customers to upgrade to 4k without installing a new dish or 4K LNB would be for them to get DTV over IP for free using the Android TV box?

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We'll see what happens but I'll be a little surprised if AT&T offers DTV satellite customers access to any of the streams delivered through the DTV-over-IP product. It's going to be a totally separate product (and, to underscore that, probably won't even use the DTV brand in its name, although that's just my hunch).

Just had a Genie Mini installed and asked the tech about 4k and he saw where the dish was and said even if the LNB went bad he would have to install another dish. The HOA will let us have a dish but we have to go through an approval process first. I think this will be another reason AT&T will want to go all OTT.