Eastern Conference Final: Cavs vs. Magic. In-Depth Preview by HD MM
How they got here: Leading up the ECF, quite honestly, I expected Orlando to take care of business and dominate the injured and tired defending champions, but that didn't happen. Instead, the teams went back-and-forth throughout their 7 game series. The Cavs on the other hand have dominated their first two round opponents by a double-digit margin in each defeat. What does this mean? Most likely it means the Cavs seem to be in a zone and locked into their ultimate goal of winning a Championship, while the Magic aren't as scary as they are made out to be.
What do the Cavs have to play for: The Cavs are firing on all cylinders and there seems to be no letting up on their opponents. Anything short of a Championship will be considered a disappointment to this team, city and fan base.
What do the Magic have to play for: The Magic may be content in just getting to the ECF. The Sixers (which IMO was the worst team in the Eastern bracket) took them to 6 games. The decimated Celtics took them to 7 games. The Magic are still a young and somewhat inexperienced team led by an often-criticized coach, Stan Van Gundy. This is as far as the Magic have been in the playoffs since the 1995 team. No one from the 1995 team is with the current batch of talent on this years team.
How the Cavs win: The Cavs defense will be the toughest that the Magic have seen all playoffs. The Magic's base offense involves feeding Dwight Howard down low, hoping he is double teamed, then kicking it out to one of their perimeter shooters for an open basket. They will have to get a lot more creative for that strategy to work against the Cavs. For one, a missed long shot creates a lot of long rebounds and fast-break opportunities for an outstanding offensive rebounding team such as the Cavs. Secondly, settling for outside shots and avoiding contact will limit the amount of times the Magic will go to the free-throw line. If the Cavs can win the free-throw battle, that will help offset the uncontested 3-pointers that do happen to go in by the Magic.
Another key is to attack the post. LeBron will have to continue to drive to the basket and force Dwight Howard to contest his shot. Pure muscle on muscle. (6'8" 250lbs vs. 6'11", 265lbs) The winner will score a basket or will earn a chance at the foul line. The loser will end up in foul trouble. If the Cavs can get Dwight Howard into foul trouble, that will eliminate the one advantage the Magic have over the Cavs.
Center: As for Dwight Howard, sure he poses a legitamite mis-match against our Bigs. He is the most dominating big man in the NBA and will pose a mis-match against any other team in the entire league. However, the Cavs front court isn't nearly as decimated as the Celtics and they seemed to contain him for the most part, with the exception of Game 7, during the first half. That was the best I've seen him play all series. The combination of Anderson Varajao, Big Z, Joe Smith and Ben Wallace should be enough amo to try and contain the big fella. We won't be able to stop him, but we may be able to contain him. Advantage: Orlando
Guards: The Cavs backcourt poses a mismatch with the Magic's. Delonte West is our best perimeter defender and he will most likely have the pleasure of locking down Rafer Alston. Mo Williams will have the honor in guarding JJ Redick. Advantage: Cleveland.
Forwards: As for the Magic's forwards, all I keep hearing is how great they can shoot from the outside for being so tall and how athletic they are. Let me give the Magic a clue. We have the most athletic forward in the league and the runner up Defensive Player of the Year in LeBron James to guard one of them, most likely Rahard Lewis. The other forward, Hedo Turkaglu will be matched up against Varajao or Big Z. Turkaglu is a tremendous shooter, but Anderson Varajao is a tremendous defensive player. Advantage: Cleveland.
Bench: The only players of significance comming off Orlando's bench is Courtney Lee and Mickael Pietrus, both shooting guards. The Cavs may have the deepest bench in the NBA in Sasha Pavlovic, Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Daniel "Boobie" Gibson and Wally Szczcerbiak. Advantage: Cleveland.
Coaches: The Cavs are led by the Coach of the Year. Mike Brown is a defense first coach. He's been here for 4 years now. In each of the previous 3 years, he's coached the Cavs to the Conference Semi-Finals twice ('05-'06 & '07-'08) and the NBA Championship once ('07-'08). He's really grown into this position and deserves more credit than what he get's around the league. His team respects and trusts him. I'd take his stout defensive schemes over any other coaches in the league. The Magic are led by Stan Van Gundy. This is only his 2nd year with Orlando. He coached a little over 2 years with the Heat before coming to Orlando. His teams have never made it past the Conference Finals. This is uncharted territory for Stan. However he did coach the Magic to the 3rd best record in the East, so that should count for something. Advantage: Cleveland
Final Thoughts: I've broken down every aspect of the matchup on paper and all but 1 area (center) favors the Cavs. And I didn't even get into X-factors in home-court advantage or the LeBron factor. With that said, games aren't won on paper and I see this as a much tougher series than the first 2 rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if it went 6 or 7 games. I still like the Cavs to prevail.
Good luck to all parties involved. I can't wait until Wednesday!
