I strongly doubt we will see any new hardware released. If anything, when they need a production run of either HR54 or HS17, and a chipset is no longer available, they may order the same device with an updated chipset and adjust the software as needed.
If they were developing new hardware (they aren't), we would have had a primary Genie box that supports 4K (HR54 replacement). But we haven't, their solution is to use a Genie and a mini-client for 4k.
They'll pull equipment back and refurbish until it hits 5 years and is depreciated / wrote off. They'll have limited production of stuff as needed. Eventually the customer base will shrink, the equipment will be pretty dated, and the satellites will reach end of life, and they'll figure an end date. That's probably still 10-15 years out though, if not more. They'll make a profit by doing nothing new.
Eventually programming will start to constrain. Good chance Sunday Ticket will end with this current season. Select channels won't be renewed (Bloomberg recently for example). They'll hold out on sports as long as is practical because that is a niche that other carriers have walked away from.
Anyway, "stagnation" as the op said, is very much their future.
