FUTURE OF MPEG2

[Jimbo]

If there are indeed 20+ milllion D* receivers in the field that cannot do MPEG4, then I agree that it will be a long time before MPEG2 goes away.

At best, you are talking about D* shipping out 20+ million new receivers directly to homes for customers to swap. And millions of customers won't be able to do this, so that will require millions of service calls.

If D* can get the average cost to them for a swap down to $100, you are talking about a conversion cost of over $2 billion dollars. And I seriously doubt they could hit that figure. If it is 25M receivers at an average cost of $150, that would be $3.75B.

If they were serious about doing this anytime soon, then they should have started shipping receivers that could all decode MPEG4 a good 2-3 years ago. For their conversion problem only grows larger every day.

I suspect somewhere along the line they decided that they'll eventually phase out MPEG2 HD channels and deal with that rather small conversion, but that they are indefinitely delaying converting SD channels to all MPEG4.

They sort of did do that, remember for the last several years now there has been a push to get all the people that use the NFL ST and MLB EI's to move to mpeg 4.
Granted thats a small portion in the overall scheme of things, but they have started to move that way. Your high end customer has already moved that way. Friends of mine who are NOT Sports fans at all and do very little other than the normal everyday viewing have been moved to H and HR recvrs now, without owning any HD sets, this it to D*'s advantage as well as thew sub getting into better equipment.
When the avg. sub does get moved to mpeg 4, most have NO iodea that the change is being made, most just hear that it's the new set up and thats that.

 

[raoul5788]

They sort of did do that, remember for the last several years now there has been a push to get all the people that use the NFL ST and MLB EI's to move to mpeg 4.
Granted thats a small portion in the overall scheme of things, but they have started to move that way. Your high end customer has already moved that way. Friends of mine who are NOT Sports fans at all and do very little other than the normal everyday viewing have been moved to H and HR recvrs now, without owning any HD sets, this it to D*'s advantage as well as thew sub getting into better equipment.
When the avg. sub does get moved to mpeg 4, most have NO iodea that the change is being made, most just hear that it's the new set up and thats that.

It's not just the EI and ST customers. Like Stonecold said, all of the customers whose locals changed from 72.5 to 99 or 103 got an mpeg4 receiver. It's not that many, but it's a start in that direction. I agree that all new boxes should be al least mpeg4, if not hd. It's like the cable companies getting addressable boxes in the field, giving the customer an opportunity to use ppv. If the Directv boxes were hd capable, more people would eventually sign up for it. That would mean more money for Directv.

 

[harshness]

At best, you are talking about D* shipping out 20+ million new receivers directly to homes for customers to swap.

Ultimately, you'll be looking at upgrading many of the dishes and switchgear as well.

I believe this is why DIRECTV has placed such a small premium on the HD package (not to fund the conversion but to get people to jump). Eventually those with SD only packages will figure out that they are subsidizing those with HD packages.

 

[wcalifas831]

A REAL ESTIMATE OF TIME?

Ok so who has a reality based estimate of when we will have to change our MPEG-2 receivers to MPEG-4? I find this topic interesting

 

[Jimbo]

Ok so who has a reality based estimate of when we will have to change our MPEG-2 receivers to MPEG-4? I find this topic interesting

If your asking when will MPEG2 no longer be available on the current units, I'd say a few years from now.

 

[harshness]

Ok so who has a reality based estimate of when we will have to change our MPEG-2 receivers to MPEG-4? I find this topic interesting

The instant you decide you can no longer live without HD programming via satellite.

 

[wcalifas831]

WOW SMART

The instant you decide you can no longer live without HD programming via satellite.

Wow you're smart, but didn't answer the question. I'm asking a time frame of when Dtv will change from mpeg-2 to all-mpeg-4 format?

 

[harshness]

Wow you're smart, but didn't answer the question. I'm asking a time frame of when Dtv will change from mpeg-2 to all-mpeg-4 format?

Not even DIRECTV knows when that will happen.

How long do you suppose that it will take to switch out tens of millions of SD receivers for HD receivers along with the attendant several million Slimline installs?

DIRECTV has torched their HD upgrade carrot by placing such a monster price on NFLST with Superfan.

 

[rad]

Not even DIRECTV knows when that will happen.

How long do you suppose that it will take to switch out tens of millions of SD receivers for HD receivers along with the attendant several million Slimline installs?

DIRECTV has torched their HD upgrade carrot by placing such a monster price on NFLST with Superfan.

To go all MPEG4 yes they need to swap all receivers but you don't need to swap out any dishes and the OP's question didn't mention HD at all.

 

[harshness]

To go all MPEG4 yes they need to swap all receivers but you don't need to swap out any dishes and the OP's question didn't mention HD at all.

Remember that I talked about an upgrade carrot. There needs to be a motivation for change and you can't make over half of your customer base change by declaring a "MPEG4 transition" after making such a big deal of avoiding the "digital transition".