Next contract for Pujols (1 Viewer)

AntAltMike

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Albert Pujols plays baseball well.

He sure does, but enquring minds have to wonder, for how much longer? I recently read an article regarding whether Pujols, who turned down a nine year, 200+ million offer, could likely deliver value over the ten years he wants, or even over nine. Here is the Baseball Reference list of the ten players whose careers were most similar to Pujols's' through age 31.

Jimmie Foxx *
Ken Griiffey
Frank Robinson *
Hank Aaron *
Lou Gehrig *
Mickey Mantle *
Mel Ott *
Juan Gonzalez
Willie Mays *
Manny Ramirez

(* signifies in Hall of Fame)

Of the seven long since retired, Hall of Fame players on the list, only Aaron retained even a substantial fraction of his earlier value over his next eight years.

Foxx had only two more full, productive seasons of hitting .300, with 35 and then just 19 homers, before petering out as a .230 hitter..

Frank Robinson played in over 133 games only once after age 31, never again scored 100 runs in a season, and exceeded 30 homers once but never again exceeded 100 RBI.

Gehrig had three successive top 5 MVP seasons and then declined somewhat in his next and final full season before abruptly retiring after just 8 at-bats in his fifth, "post age 31" season.

Mickey Mantle had only five abbreviated seasons of baseball left in him, only once hitting more than 23 home runs and only once driving in more than 56 runs.

Mel Ott hit over 30 homers in a season seven times before he turned 31 but never after. He scored 100 or more runs and drove in 110 or more eight times through age 31, but only exceeded those thresholds once in runs scored and twice in RBI thereafter,.and only once after the age of 31 did he finish higher than 16th in MVP voting

Willie Mays had four monster years from ages 32-35, finishing first, third, fifth and sixth in MVP voting, but became a .rather pedestrian 280-20homer-80 RBI player for the remainder of his career.

Only Aaron had maybe 3/4s the value in his eight years beyond age 31 as he did before. Aaron scored or drove in 100 or more runs four more times each, remained a perennial home run crown contender, hitting 40 home runs in 120 games at age 39, and was an MVP vote getter each and every one of those next eight years, finishing 12th at age 39, but over that remarkable late career span, he was not the player he had been previously.

As far as the contemporary players on that list are concerned, Ramirez, aided by steroids, had five comparably productive years, Gonzales had none, and Griffey spent those years posting JD Drew numbers, never again scoring or driving in 100 runs in a season while averaging a hundred games played.

I remember when Bill James derided the then popular notion that a baseball player's prime was from ages 28 to 32. He determined that hitters peaked at age 27 and pitchers at 28 and it was downhill from there. Moderrn players have longer and later performance horizons because of improved nutrition, surgery, training and, yes, performance enhancing drugs, but it is wishful thinking to book the value of any allstar caliber players' outyears to approach that of his earlier ones. Theo Epstein is going to have an opportunity to spend someone else's money this winter, and I predict he will either overpay for Pujols or force the price up for someone else.
 
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Jimbo

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Good reason to sign him to a 5-6 year offer.

At 31, I would not WANT to sign a LONG term offer (10 years).
After 2-3 years, you could reasonable make much MORE money on another contract.

I think 1 and 2 or 3year contracts would be the best way to go as a player.
 

BillD1984

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With Teixera and Gonzalez sealed up for the forseeable future, the market for both Phat Albert and Prince Fielder goes down considerably! Don't get me wrong, there's still some heavy hitters out there (Cubs and Angels come to mind), but with the Yankees and Red Sox presumably out of the running, that has to hurt these guys.
 

Jimbo

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Lets see how much pull Theo has in Chicago ....
Pojols going to the Cubs would make them a fun team to watch, of course they would need more than that, but I think Theo will be changing the scenery in Chicago regardless.
 

AntAltMike

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One thing, Pujols sure doesn't play like an aging athlete. He's something else.

In 2011, Pujols just had his lowest batting, slugging, OBP and OPS averages; fewest RBI, hits, doubles, triples, total bases and bases on balls, second fewest homers and third fewest runs scored in his eleven year major league career.

Remember, Babe Ruth hit three homers in a game for the Pittsburgh Pirates shortly before being released. Now I'm not saying...
 

tstolze

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In 2011, Pujols just had his lowest batting, slugging, OBP and OPS averages; fewest RBI, hits, doubles, triples, total bases and bases on balls, second fewest homers and third fewest runs scored in his eleven year major league career.

Remember, Babe Ruth hit three homers in a game for the Pittsburgh Pirates shortly before being released. Now I'm not saying...

And the numbers he put up this year are still probably greater than 99% of the numbers other players put up. Not bad for an "off" year.
 

cosmo_kramer

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With Teixera and Gonzalez sealed up for the forseeable future, the market for both Phat Albert and Prince Fielder goes down considerably! Don't get me wrong, there's still some heavy hitters out there (Cubs and Angels come to mind), but with the Yankees and Red Sox presumably out of the running, that has to hurt these guys.
key word bolded for emphasis... ;)
 

Jimbo

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And the numbers he put up this year are still probably greater than 99% of the numbers other players put up. Not bad for an "off" year.

Your MATH is WAY off..... they're are about 800 players in the league on the team rosters ....
He would have to put up numbers better than 792 of them.
 

AntAltMike

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But looking at the way production declined after age 31 for at least eight of the ten players whose numbers have most closely matched Pujols's so far, what would you pay for a player to purchase, say, five more of his 2011 season followed by five more seasons of his hitting .280 with 20 homers and 80 RBI?
 

salsadancer7

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AntAltMike said:
But looking at the way production declined after age 31 for at least eight of the ten players whose numbers have most closely matched Pujols's so far, what would you pay for a player to purchase, say, five more of his 2011 season followed by five more seasons of his hitting .280 with 20 homers and 80 RBI?

I would not be surprised if he is offered something like an 6 year, $150 million dollar contract with a team option. The only ones crazy enough crazy enough to offer more to avoid the PR hit is the Cardinals.
 

Mets82

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Well, I know the Mets cant get him ( but if you have the choice or the opportunity to get him, you pay a Kings Ransom. 3 HRs in one game??!!! I'll take it. I dont think hes really had a bad year.
 

Jimbo

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I'll stick with Miguel Cabrera over Pojols.
He had an off year too and hit 45 points higher in batting avg. .344 to .299
The rest of the numbers were comparable,
Miguel had better B.A. .344 to .299
Al had more HR's 37-30
Miguel had more RBI's 109 to 99
Miguel had more doubles 48-29
Miguel had more walks 108-68

I don't know where to find the avg. with RISP, but I know at the end of the season, Cabrera was around .390
 

whitewolf8214

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PUJOLS IS NOT GOING TO THE CUBS THEY NEED TO MUCH AND PUJOLS WANTS TO BE ON A CONTENDER
:)
 

Jimbo

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PUJOLS IS NOT GOING TO THE CUBS THEY NEED TO MUCH AND PUJOLS WANTS TO BE ON A CONTENDER
:)

However, with Theo in the Front Office, that could persuade Big FA's to come and he could be one of them .... thats how the Tigers came back from the dead, when they signed Pudge Rodriguez and others started to take notice and went there as well.

Same goes for the CURRENT Lions.
 

Ramy

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In 2011, Pujols just had his lowest batting, slugging, OBP and OPS averages; fewest RBI, hits, doubles, triples, total bases and bases on balls, second fewest homers and third fewest runs scored in his eleven year major league career.

Remember, Babe Ruth hit three homers in a game for the Pittsburgh Pirates shortly before being released. Now I'm not saying...

He never played for Pittsburgh. He hit those three home runs playing for the Boston Braves against the Pirates in Forbes Field.
 

DodgerKing

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I'll stick with Miguel Cabrera over Pojols.
He had an off year too and hit 45 points higher in batting avg. .344 to .299
The rest of the numbers were comparable,
Miguel had better B.A. .344 to .299
Al had more HR's 37-30
Miguel had more RBI's 109 to 99
Miguel had more doubles 48-29
Miguel had more walks 108-68

I don't know where to find the avg. with RISP, but I know at the end of the season, Cabrera was around .390
Pujol's had his worse season ever and missed some time due to injury. His numbers would have been much better if he played the whole year
 

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