The fat lady is warming up

[vurbano]

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/format-wa...ray-303318.php



War Ends In 18 Months, Possibly with HD DVD Upset Victory Over Blu-ray

Sales of next-gen high-def disc players won't kick into high gear for another 18 months, says a fresh report from Forrester Research. The study didn't say whose players, though, because what was once an easy call—Blu-ray by Christmas 2007—has gotten, well, murkier. In these most recent rounds, HD DVD has been bitchslapping Blu-ray up and down the ring.

Following price drops in HD DVD players and Paramount's decision to stick solely to that format, analyst J.P. Gownder writes:

"Weakened by these developments, Blu-ray needs to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007. The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum."
People need a $200 player or they won't buy, in spite of the current rampant sales of high-def TVs. It's still Blu-ray's game to lose, but here's Gownder's bottom line:

"Failure to alter strategy would open up Blu-ray to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD."

 

[bsk116]

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/format-wa...ray-303318.php



War Ends In 18 Months, Possibly with HD DVD Upset Victory Over Blu-ray

Sales of next-gen high-def disc players won't kick into high gear for another 18 months, says a fresh report from Forrester Research. The study didn't say whose players, though, because what was once an easy call—Blu-ray by Christmas 2007—has gotten, well, murkier. In these most recent rounds, HD DVD has been bitchslapping Blu-ray up and down the ring.

Following price drops in HD DVD players and Paramount's decision to stick solely to that format, analyst J.P. Gownder writes:

"Weakened by these developments, Blu-ray needs to offer a viable hardware model at the $250 price point by Christmas 2007. The Blu-ray camp must also stave off further studio defections, and employ more aggressive promotional tactics to counter HD DVD's recent momentum."
People need a $200 player or they won't buy, in spite of the current rampant sales of high-def TVs. It's still Blu-ray's game to lose, but here's Gownder's bottom line:

"Failure to alter strategy would open up Blu-ray to a possible upset defeat at the hands of HD DVD."

The next rumored possible HDDVD victory...........please tell me.

 

[JoeSp]

Yet BD disc sales continue their 2 to 1 lead over HD-DVD. And the NPD lastest figures show that BD standalones have not only caught up on a weekly basis but now are advancing over 50% of total HD standalones sales per week.

Yes Vurbano, the Fat Lady is warming up but it might not be for who you think it will be for.

 

[BassBlaster]

The Fat Lady is indeed warming up...to welcome HD DVD to the club of outdated/rejected technologies (Laser Disc, VHS, 5 1/4" floopy, Betamax, etc.)

 

[r.jones1116]

Kind of a short sighted article since it failed to mention the fact that BD players have incomplete specs. That probably won't hit home with a lot of the blubots for a couple more months.

 

[jayn_j]

The Fat Lady is indeed warming up...to welcome HD DVD to the club of outdated/rejected technologies (Laser Disc, VHS, 5 1/4" floopy, Betamax, etc.)

Bad list of examples. Every one there had a nice 20 year run. The failure list would more accurately be something like:

VHD disc
Sony 1/2" reel VTR
DVD-A
SACD
CDV
DAT
Sony minidisc
Sega Saturn
...

 

[JoeSp]

A good point jayn_j. It probably is not going to matter who 'wins or loses' as both formats are probably going to be arround for a long time.

 

[jayn_j]

A good point jayn_j. It probably is not going to matter who 'wins or loses' as both formats are probably going to be arround for a long time.

The only real danger is that you choose a format before there is a critical mass of titles you want.

I have 700 laserdiscs. The format is dead. Did I immediately go out and throw them away? Hell no! Even though I will never buy another laserdisc, I still play and enjoy what is there. I must have 40-50 discs in the format that have never been released on DVD, and some of those never will be. I was slowly converting to DVD when I found a compelling special edition, or a can't refuse it price. I'm in a holding pattern now until I decide to do a HD format.

What I did do was buy a couple of cheap players. That way the $20k investment in sw is protected.

 

[Kevinw]

Good thing this is in the warzone First 3 posts were rebuttals of the article..

 

[GaryPen]

Bad list of examples. Every one there had a nice 20 year run. The failure list would more accurately be something like:

...

The consumer format known as Betamax did not have a 20 year run. The professional format known as Betacam did.

Betamax indeed lost the consumer video format war. It was the first big blow of many to Sony-created proprietary formats. And, in almost every case, theirs was a superior technology. However, their arrogance and greed is what prevented each of them from becoming the predominant format.

 

[JMikeF]

1) I'm a big Sony fan. Great technology
2) Sony pisses me off with their need to define and own formats.

That said, I believe if you are passionate about HD (in any format), plan your budget so you can get both HD-DVD and Blu-ray. I did this summer, and now I can enjoy stunning HD with the widest selection possible, instead of getting in a pissing contest on the Internet over which format is better, etc.

See ya! :up

 

[jayn_j]

The consumer format known as Betamax did not have a 20 year run. The professional format known as Betacam did.

Betamax indeed lost the consumer video format war. It was the first big blow of many to Sony-created proprietary formats. And, in almost every case, theirs was a superior technology. However, their arrogance and greed is what prevented each of them from becoming the predominant format.

Gary, you are picking nits from a general statement. However...

Beta was released in 1975 in the US market. The last ED-Beta recorder was discontinued in the US in 1993. (see The Betamax vs VHS Format War) That gives it an 18 year run. You can argue that the last ten years of production was for a steadily decreasing market share, but in the late '70s and early '80s, beta was dominant. Beta owners, although decreasing in numbers tended to be fanatical about the format. It is interesting to note that Beta remained popular in Japan and South America and recorders were manufactured for these markets until 2002 when they were finally killed by DVD recorders. So, Beta had a mere 18 year run in the US and a 27 year run in the international market.

Now, are we richer for having picked these nits?

It is also interesting to note that it wasn't the enthusiasts that killed Beta, but rather the mass market that didn't care about quality, but voted for recording time, and in the Sony marketing that tended to limit production and distribution of both HW and SW. That would tend to work against your statement in the other thread that Wal-Mart is irrelevant.

 

[GaryPen]

Gary, you are picking nits from a general statement. However...

I'm not picking nits. I pointed out your error. You were wrong about Betamax having a nice 20 year run. Period.

Beta was released in 1975 in the US market. The last ED-Beta recorder was discontinued in the US in 1993. (see The Betamax vs VHS Format War) That gives it an 18 year run. You can argue that the last ten years of production was for a steadily decreasing market share, but in the late '70s and early '80s, beta was dominant. Beta owners, although decreasing in numbers tended to be fanatical about the format. It is interesting to note that Beta remained popular in Japan and South America and recorders were manufactured for these markets until 2002 when they were finally killed by DVD recorders. So, Beta had a mere 18 year run in the US and a 27 year run in the international market.

First, I would take that article with a grain of salt, as they were wrong about something as simple as tape length. They were also incorrect about Beta's popularity in Japan. And, wrong about the timeline. VHS won that war in short order.

Home VCR's were a niche product in the US, costing well over $1000 when VHS was introduced in late 76/early 77. They didn't become affordable until the early 80's when breaking the $500 mark.

VHS' longer record times and cheaper cost to purchase the recorders led to VHS winning the war with comsumers by 1985, if not sooner. (I was there. I remember.)

Now, are we richer for having picked these nits?

All I did was point out that you were wrong about a small tidbit of info. That's because you were. It's not a big deal and didn't require the big long defense. Beta had a nice 10 year run. Not 20. No biggie.

 

[Digital Dude]

What I find as curious and ironic is the 180 degree turn from the 1980's.
The 1983 Supreme court decision in the betamax case gave us fair use rights.
In 1986 or 87 Toshiba was vilified (rightly so) for selling quiet submarine propeller technology to the Soviet Union. So much so that Toshiba TV's were sledge hammered outside the US Senate.

Fast forward 20 years and Sony's PR campaign of "HDNA because HD is in our DNA" would more accurratly be described as "HDRM, because DRM is in our genes" as opposed to Toshiba's HD-DVD being far more pro-consumer with combo discs, region free, cat-5 connectivity for free firmware upgrades.
BD players are made obsolescent by new "features" on new generation BD players while HD-DVD players are easily and freely upgradable.

Toshiba and HD-DVD are now the consumers friend while Sony and their "Divx" (Circuit City's failed raping of consumers consortium, not the codec) friends are as anti-consumer as you can imagine.

Why are so many backing Sony and the deterioration of thier fair use rights? It's gotta be one of the great enigma's of our time.

 

[navychop]

Some of us are no fans of Sony, but prefer the better technical specs of Blu-ray.

 

[Digital Dude]

Technical specs at the cost of your rights?

 

[BobMurdoch]

What better tech specs? Capacity? What about interactivity and ease of programming? Availability of production lines and ease of conversion of production lines? Yield rates?

Plus lets talk copy protection.... No region coding for HD DVD. Stable specs (has BluRay FINALLY established the specs yet?).

Let's not forget the politics behind the scenes. Sony and Disney have the WORST record for protecting consumer fair use rights.

 

[diogen]

Fast forward 20 years and Sony's PR campaign of "HDNA because HD is in our DNA" would more accurratly be described as "HDRM, because DRM is in our genes" as opposed to Toshiba's HD-DVD being far more pro-consumer with combo discs, region free, cat-5 connectivity for free firmware upgrades.

No matter how you look at it, DRM is not something the HD/BD groups impose on studios, it is the other way around. And the essential content protection component - AACS - is the same in both formats. I don't think BD+ will make much of a difference, if ever used.

You can blaim Sony/Microsoft & Co. for eagerly playing the DRM game by developing AACS, Fox for insisting on BD+ as an additional protection measure, duplicity of some BDA studios by voting down region coding in HD DVD and implementing it on BD, rushing half-cooked formats to the market, etc. But you can't blame non-IP holders for wanting to stay relevant in the CE market and playing by studio imposed rules.

There is a silver lining in this latest generation DRM: we have a good chance to show the studios one more time - maybe the last time - that profit making and copy protection don't go hand by hand. As of now only completely hacked formats - CD and DVD - made the most money for RIAA/MPAA. We can hope they will grasp this simple fact one day...

Diogen.

 

[JoeSp]

In 1986 or 87 Toshiba was vilified (rightly so) for selling quiet submarine propeller technology to the Soviet Union. So much so that Toshiba TV's were sledge hammered outside the US Senate.

I might be wrong here but I believe it was Hitachi that sold that technology to the Russians and their products carried such a high tarrif after that you did not see their consumer products for years.

The only thing a HD-DVD player does that BD will not is region coding. Seems there are more studios who prefer region coding then not (Disney being one of the main ones). As for HDi, it is October and BD players currently being marketed must now meet the specs for BDJava 1.1. My PS3 already meets BDJava 2.0. So other than the regional coding and HDi the HD-DVD standalones really do not do anything more then most BD players.

 

[teachsac]

In 1986 or 87 Toshiba was vilified (rightly so) for selling quiet submarine propeller technology to the Soviet Union. So much so that Toshiba TV's were sledge hammered outside the US Senate.

I might be wrong here but I believe it was Hitachi that sold that technology to the Russians and their products carried such a high tarrif after that you did not see their consumer products for years.

The only thing a HD-DVD player does that BD will not is region coding. Seems there are more studios who prefer region coding then not (Disney being one of the main ones). As for HDi, it is October and BD players currently being marketed must now meet the specs for BDJava 1.1. My PS3 already meets BDJava 2.0. So other than the regional coding and HDi the HD-DVD standalones really do not do anything more then most BD players.

Actually it's october 31. And it is no longer called 1.1. It is now 1.0 final spec rather than 1.0 grace period.