Cablevision Board To Debate Voom Fate
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Having been through a couple of corporate mergers and acquisitions, some parts of memo sound authentic (most notably “the board's action is not in the slightest way a negative reflection upon you or the quality of your work”). However, I am inclined to say that I do NOT believe it is authentic due to the simple notion that this kind of thing is never announced by company memo until it is a done deal, meaning a definitive signed agreement has been made. There is no mention of that in the memo, only speculation of a probable buyer.
Well, I have to say if Wearwolf's alleged memo is a fake then he/she writes a hell of a fake memo! Looks pretty real to me and not surpising if Dolan buys it outright (perhaps with some other investors). He believes in this project too much to let go of it IMO.
Indy said:I will visit this scenario again since the last time I suggested it no one noticed. Charles Dolan sold off a bunch of stock in Cablevision a few weeks ago. I have no idea what this guy can raise in the way of cash on a personal basis.
Has anyone considered that just maybe Charles Dolan is posturing himself to make a buy of Dish Network or a major buy in? This would make more sense to me than selling Voom. Charlie Ergan would still have Echostar and the hardware end of things and that seems to be his interest. He is unveiling plasma displays and all sorts of things he is in the middle of. Just a legitimate thought IMHO.[/QUOT
Just to bump this up top again.
Since we have these alledged insiders here, maybe now they will believe that these 21 channels are a ridiculous idea as framed. They would do much better as say 7 channels. Very few people as evidenced by Vooms low sub numbers want 10 cinema channels each showing 2 movies a day. Its just an obscene waste of bandwidth when you are missing so many other channels.
The memo looks real and raises my hopes that I will still receive a Voom signal on February 1. It is perfectly reasonable for Voom mgmt to issue that memo when staffers see their jobs on the line. The staffers follow the news and need reassurance that their careers are intact. Voom will be sold and kept going. After all, the Board decision to sell Voom was a SPLIT decision, not unanimous. The supportive Board members could be part of a buy out.
All due respect to Indy, I can't see a visionary like Dolan buying Dish. Dish is pretty static. The product is static, and its stock is worth what it's worth. The investment opportunity lies in proving Voom as a viable business. If Dolan were to buy Dish, what would he do with it? Shove Voom programming down the throats of millions of existing Dish subscribers? I can't see it.
The Swann article is full of holes. For example, it is silly to say that Dolan's prior success rested on the cable monopoly. What was HBO? That success didn't rely on a monopoly. What about the other channels Dolan started? There is no doubt that the guy has had a gift for understanding his market. Also, Swann ignores the fact that Voom is more than HD. The "exclusive channel" business model is something other providers cannot match. Voom happens to have 21 cleverly conceived exclusives now, but the strategy could apply to 42 exclusives. Other providers can catch up with Voom's HD, but Voom is more than HD.
It is perfectly reasonable for Voom mgmt to issue that memo when staffers see their jobs on the line. The staffers follow the news and need reassurance that their careers are intact. Voom will be sold and kept going. After all, the Board decision to sell Voom was a SPLIT decision, not unanimous. The supportive Board members could be part of a buy out.All due respect to Indy, I can't see a visionary like Dolan buying Dish. Dish is pretty static. The product is static, and its stock is worth what it's worth. The investment opportunity lies in proving Voom as a viable business. If Dolan were to buy Dish, what would he do with it? Shove Voom programming down the throats of millions of existing Dish subscribers? I can't see it.
The Swann article is full of holes. For example, it is silly to say that Dolan's prior success rested on the cable monopoly. What was HBO? That success didn't rely on a monopoly. What about the other channels Dolan started? There is no doubt that the guy has had a gift for understanding his market. Also, Swann ignores the fact that Voom is more than HD. The "exclusive channel" business model is something other providers cannot match. Voom happens to have 21 cleverly conceived exclusives now, but the strategy could apply to 42 exclusives. Other providers can catch up with Voom's HD, but Voom is more than HD.
This furthers my point that the charles is going to sell of the cable and entertainment properties and invest all in voom. Then james will be looking for a new job. Wouldnt that be great in 5yrs from now when voom has taken off and is on like 70% of the homes, James will be kicking himself for not being one of the visionaries.
To all doubters: For the 4th time the memo is real... Got confirmation before and got confirmation once again from other sources that did not post the memo. So there it goes.
I haven't been on the boards long enough to know who Scott is, but apparently he is an insider? Where is he in all of this other than a cryptic message about voom still being around. I'd like to hear something more confident.
I'm excited about the prospect of having voom for more than 3 days after my installation date as I'm not sure the hassle will be worth it. I live in an apartment and my girlfriend is very "tidy." A big usless dish in the patio and holes in the walls certainly won't help my chances for future endeavors. Especially if I have to pay for reinstallation of cable again in a month. I was excited, but I'm starting to wonder.
I really really don't like Comcast and am stoked about the idea of voom but am anxiously awaiting some inside info to see if I want to go through with it.
I'm excited about the prospect of having voom for more than 3 days after my installation date as I'm not sure the hassle will be worth it. I live in an apartment and my girlfriend is very "tidy." A big usless dish in the patio and holes in the walls certainly won't help my chances for future endeavors. Especially if I have to pay for reinstallation of cable again in a month. I was excited, but I'm starting to wonder.
I really really don't like Comcast and am stoked about the idea of voom but am anxiously awaiting some inside info to see if I want to go through with it.
I talked with someone at cablevision today and althought the memo was not specifcally mentioned, many things in the memo were. I believe Mr. Dolan is planning on buying VOOM himself and keep it private until enough channels and subs are added to make it a viable entity to go public or sell. Just my opionion, not fact based on anything.Sean Mota said:
I talked with someone at cablevision today and although the memo was not specifcally mentioned, many things in the memo were. I believe Mr. Dolan is planning on buying VOOM himself (or with other investors, maybe even his son) and keeping it private until enough channels and subs are added to make it a viable entity to go public or sell. Just my opionion, not fact based on anything.Sean Mota said:
How much money does he have? A hell of a lot. Since he believes in Voom, I don't think he would consider it "throwing it away" but rather an investement.
Imagine this scenerio:
Dolan Sr. and/or partners buy Voom/RDBS for $300Million. They lost an average of $75Mil per quarter for 4 years. They would be in for $300M + 75M*12=$1.5 Billion. At the end of three years they increase the number of subs to 2 million by that time. General concensus is that 2 millions subs is easily enough to keep a system profitable (Dish and DirecTV have lost money at these sub numbers because they continue to invest in expansion). Given that Wall Street often tags these sorts of adventures at a worth of $1,000 per sub, you would have a $2 Billion value, resulting in a profit of $500 Million.
I am not in insider and not privvy to the inner workings of the cable/sat business so my numbers may be off but they are at least educated guesses and as such have a good shot at being close enough to work.
Imagine this scenerio:
Dolan Sr. and/or partners buy Voom/RDBS for $300Million. They lost an average of $75Mil per quarter for 4 years. They would be in for $300M + 75M*12=$1.5 Billion. At the end of three years they increase the number of subs to 2 million by that time. General concensus is that 2 millions subs is easily enough to keep a system profitable (Dish and DirecTV have lost money at these sub numbers because they continue to invest in expansion). Given that Wall Street often tags these sorts of adventures at a worth of $1,000 per sub, you would have a $2 Billion value, resulting in a profit of $500 Million.
I am not in insider and not privvy to the inner workings of the cable/sat business so my numbers may be off but they are at least educated guesses and as such have a good shot at being close enough to work.
I guess I didnt take the "new math" that you did. 3 yrs and 2 million subs. Its been 1.5 yrs and we only have 26,000. That calculation just doesnt work for me. I guess since the old man is going to own it everyone will come running?Mr.Poindexter said:
VOOM Future
Listen guys, all that matters is that we will continue to get a signal until V* is sold. Corporate America is not ready to take a chance on a sat provider with the main selling point being HD. If they were wouldn't one of the Big 2 already switched to HD, or seriously expanded the HD lineup? V* will continue to exist because of us in this forum and all of the subs. It might get bought by the Dolans, hell it could get bought by Flipper for all I care so long as they continue to bring the most HD possible. If it goes away most of us are out what, programming charges? The thing is when Voom does get sold and continues to grow because of the HD factor we can say that we were all in on the ground floor.
Listen guys, all that matters is that we will continue to get a signal until V* is sold. Corporate America is not ready to take a chance on a sat provider with the main selling point being HD. If they were wouldn't one of the Big 2 already switched to HD, or seriously expanded the HD lineup? V* will continue to exist because of us in this forum and all of the subs. It might get bought by the Dolans, hell it could get bought by Flipper for all I care so long as they continue to bring the most HD possible. If it goes away most of us are out what, programming charges? The thing is when Voom does get sold and continues to grow because of the HD factor we can say that we were all in on the ground floor.
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