If I am not mistaken, cable already offers NASCAR in demand deals, and Direct already offers NFL Network, so if the subs are already with them, by dish adding NFL it wouldn't make the subs switch. Adding a channel that the company I'm with already has wouldn't make me switch. for example, lets say I was with Direct and they had LogoTV on their lineup (which they have) and then dish (which they don't right now) decided to add Logo to their line up, why should I switch? I am already with a company that has what I want.
The argument of them switching because Dish decides to carry NFL Network doesn't work unless you add something to it that Direct doesn't carry. I think the exodus of subs if Dish doesn't add NFL would be a whole lot less than what you all suspect it would be, and I think Dish realizes that. I do the fantasy football thing, and having the NFL channel would be nice for that, but it is only for 16 weeks that it really matters, there are other channels that would be more compelling to subs that are of interest 52 weeks a year that in my opinion would be better to add at this point.