Not Looking Good for Bluray

Bottom line for me and most families that are on a budget, BD will gain true dominace when they lower their prices on stand alone players. I don't mean from $999.99 to 799.99. I mean to a price that is in the area that the regular joe can afford to go out and purchase a stand alone. Both formats have a long way to go. Prices are way too high for the public to grab on to either one. We could sit here and argue which format is outselling the other for the rest of the year. People like us here at this site love electronics and have to have the newest toy out there. It's the general public that has to grab on to a format and make it work. With the prices the way they are for both formats, the general public wants nothing to do with either one. In fact, they have no idea what the difference between the two are.
 
But the war may well be decided before the general public weighs in after cheap players are out. Retailers and studios would prefer a single format, and they may decide who gets their support, and who becomes a mail order support line like vinyl records. They no doubt would want to minimize the number of customers that bought an orphaned product.
 
Do you think the deciding factor will be availability of DVD rentals??

I remember the VHS / Beta wars. Before I owned a VCR I walked into several video stores and saw shelves and shelves full of VHS and one little rack of Beta. That was it. The decision was made for me.

So far there is a battle of titles on both formats, and the tide looks in favor of Blu-Ray. But I don't see the video stores stocked with either format! Around here even the major stores have NO HD rentals. (Though I know you can rent HD on Netflix and Blockbuster online.)

Price of the player is not as big of a deal to me as variety of titles I can get for rentals. Right now, my choice of titles on either format is.... ZERO. :mad:
 
My local Blockbuster brought in a section of HD and Blu-Ray rentals. Not the fastest at getting the new releases but was in there yesterday and they had Happy feet in both, Eragon in BluRay, Casino Royale in BluRay, about 30 to 40 other HD DVD and the same other BluRay. So at least some of the Blockbusters are giving it a go. Problem is, no noe seems to know about it but me. Manager says I am pretty much the only one that has rented any in the month they have been there.
 

Excellent article, thanks for the link. :)

The war for dominance of the next-generation DVD market may be decided on price. Some analysts are betting that whichever format—HD DVD or Blu-ray—has the most players in stores for $500 or less in time for the holiday season will ultimately win over consumers. Everything else, including the movie studios that have already aligned with a particular format, will follow the money.

It may at first seem strange that the format competition would come down to price. . . . . the problem with HD DVD and Blu-ray is that there's no clear "best" format. The 2007 offerings in both camps let users make the most of their high-definition TV and audio systems. Both deliver a sharply detailed, color-rich picture and audio capable of making home theater sound like the real thing. Both have extra storage space for features such as multilanguage broadcasts, directors' cuts, and interactive menus (though Blu-ray has more storage capacity). And both have backing from major studios such as Warner Bros. (TWX). "There is not enough distinction between these two formats to justify that one should win," says Chris Crotty, senior consumer electronics analyst at iSuppli.

Without a clear winner, consumers are confused. And confused consumers wait for clarity. If they don't get that, then they'll settle for cheap, says McQuivey. . . . . "Whoever gets below $500 might have a chance [to win] if it looks like the other guy isn't going to get there," says McQuivey. "People were waiting for a decision and, because there isn't a decision, they are waiting for price, so it doesn't matter if they make a bad decision."

Some consumers are bypassing the DVD route altogether, downloading high-definition videos right off the Internet, says McQuivey. . . . . The warring formats "have spent so much time and effort fighting each other and they should be battling their common enemy, which is online delivery," Crotty says.

:up :up :up
 
I guess the author of that piece didn't bother to read the sales of the two formats. But then, that would contradict the point he was trying to make, wouldn't it?
 
With the number of BD players (stand alone and PS3) in homes, software sales for BD is not anything to brag about. Attach rate for BD is much lower than HD DVD
 
I guess the author of that piece didn't bother to read the sales of the two formats. But then, that would contradict the point he was trying to make, wouldn't it?

Oh c'mon Navy. What point? That both formats currently provide equal quality, and that price - as it always does - may be the deciding factor?

What sales of the two formats did he not bother to read? That for stand alone, non-gaming machines that the vast majority of consumers will chose, HD DVD has always lead, and continues to lead? Or that sales of HD titles lead for all of 2006? Or that for Jan. - Mar., fueled by the release of the PS3 and supporting heavy release of BD titles, Blu-ray lead for the first time? Or that with more release titles coming out on HD DVD from now through the end of May than on BD, coupled with $299 HD DVD players, those sales figures are subject to change? Or that those current sales figures still account for a drop in the bucket compared to DVD?

I agree with with Sony' claim that 'the format war is over, it's now safe to chose'. Pick the one that best suits your budget and movie preferences, neither format is going away anytime soon. :)
 
Enough with the porn. During the Vhs-Beta war can anyone here tell me how you got porn then? Is anyone old enough to remember who purchased porn then? Did anyone here purchase porn before the VHS-BETA war?

There was no mass medium then. 8mm film was how must people who purchased porn got theirs and then they had to have a 8mm projector. This product was not a mass media product. I am guessing that less then 5% of homes had one. My father purchase a projector and out of his 3 sisters and brothers he was the only one that had one -- and we were the poorest of the bunch.

But along came the VHS-BETA wars and within 2 years anyone could purchase movies to view at home on their tv. Porn jumped right on that bandwagon and pushed VHS over the top. The porn industry made a ton of money and then came DVD and the porn industry moved right on in increasing their income potential.

This so-called highdef format war is not going to be swayed by the porn industry. There is no big money egg for the porn industry in HD. Anyone can get porn anytime they want any kind they want on the internet. The internet is the next big income booster for porn not HD discs sales. On the internet you can in the privacy of your own home download whatever floats your boat. The HD format war is not going to do that for you.

This format war will be won when someone decides to wave the white flag. Right now neither camp is even close to doing that. However, I think by this time next year we will see a clear winner. It will not only be decided by the consumer but also by the retailer. The retailer will sell what they can make money on and the consumer is going to buy what they want and can afford. If the retailer sees more money in one camp then the other they might make a decision about what to carry for the consumer. This in turn could potentially move the market in on direction. In the past when a format war goes on for over two years they both usually lose. Right now we are entering the second year of this particular fomat war. Maybe by this time next year we will see a much clearer picture -- at least I hope so.
 
Yep and the reason everyone jumped on VHS is different circumstances than today. Sony learned a bit about NOT trying to be the one and only person making/selling their format like back with Beta. This is a HUGE difference. PLus there are companies that will be pressing adult titles, it is not a 110% ban on porn for Blu-ray; again this porn excuse was debated before and debunked.
 
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JoeSp, interesting post. I never thought about the difference today, that porn might not make a difference in today's HD format wars because of the Internet.

But now you are getting me to think that ANY HD format will be relatively short-lived (compared to the life of standard DVDs) because the internet will be more convenient for video of all kinds in the pretty near future.

Keep an eye on JOOST and WiFi set top boxes. ;)
 
Well, that MSNBC link just shows how late to the party that "reporter" is. Even the porn industry has admitted they cannot wield the influence they did back in the VHS vs Beta days. Too many delivery mechanisms for porn today. Still, I believe the rented/purchased disc concept will dominate for several years, because people are familiar with the process. Most still don't want to fool around with downloading internet content to their TV.


Oh c'mon Navy. What point? That both formats currently provide equal quality, and that price - as it always does - may be the deciding factor?

That Blu-ray is outselling HD-DVD by over 2 to 1. As stated before, I believe that title availability will count for more than price, especially with first year buyers, who are accustomed to paying more to be the "first on their block."


That for stand alone, non-gaming machines that the vast majority of consumers will chose, HD DVD has always lead, and continues to lead?

Hardly matters. Total sales matter. There are about 5 times as many devices that can play Blu-ray as can play HD-DVD. And then there's that 2 plus to 1 title sales ratio.

Currently Toshiba is the only company selling HD-DVD players. Several companies sell Blu-ray players, and after a late start, are just now gearing up with different models at different price points. I agree, the stand alone player concept will dominate in the future. I'm just not sure Toshiba will continue to dominate in this area.


Or that sales of HD titles lead for all of 2006?

And that was their last hurrah. Sales since inception, sales YTD, and sales since the week after Xmas '06 are all in favor of Blu-ray, and the gap is growing. That they one time held the lead means nothing, just as Blu-ray's current lead will mean nothing if HD-DVD stages a comeback and out sells Blu-ray.


...with more release titles coming out on HD DVD from now through the end of May than on BD, coupled with $299 HD DVD players, those sales figures are subject to change?

Always subject to change- but will they? Never underestimate Disney. Numbers of titles for sale counts- but which titles those are counts more. I believe the race could be settled this year.


Or that those current sales figures still account for a drop in the bucket compared to DVD?

That's why it's still a horse race. Things probably need to shake out not long after high def disc sales top a million or 2 a month, or very roughly 10%-20% of the DVD sales rate. Might happen this year. Might not. Certainly will next year.


...neither format is going away anytime soon. :)

You may be right. Is that a "Dish" soon? :haha ;)

Both might survive, but I doubt it. Right now, I expect HD-DVD to become a niche market like vinyl records- in this country. How could that change? If Toshiba could get another major studio to go exclusive HD-DVD, like Universal is today. But that's not going to happen. Not unless Blu-ray fails for other reasons. So what if Toshiba persuaded Disney and maybe other major studios to release on HD-DVD also? Then they'd have a good chance of dominating. But even that is unlikely, especially for Disney. Disney was firm on their insistence on regional encoding. It would be a major policy change for them to reverse themselves on that. Probably involving a change in leadership at the top. Their CEO due to retire any time soon?

But $300 for a player, with 5 free movies (& movies that I WANT) valued at about half that price! Well, it's very tempting. Very. I'm not in a position to grab that offer right now, but even if I was- perhaps I'd still pass. I still expect Blu-ray to "win" and I'd be stuck with an obsolete player of ever diminishing value over the years.

If sales grow significantly for $300 players, you can bet Sony will sell a $300 player too. They'll match the price if they have to, or come close to it, counting on getting a premium for their name. Shucks, hurt me, hurt me. :p

If the war continues for a few more months, with HD-DVD hanging in there at about 2 to 1 sales or better, and $200 HD-DVD players come out, lot's of people will buy those cheap players. But then they'll regret it later, if the studios stand firmly in their camps, and feel pressed to buy a Blu-ray player. Just so they can get the titles they want to see at home.

Of course, Sony has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory before, and may do so again. Right now, I'd say it's 70-30 that Blu-ray will "win." If Blu-ray ever gets up to outselling HD-DVD titles at 5 to 1, and holds that lead, and at the million titles sold a month rate, then it's probably all over with. Major retailers would likely walk away from HD-DVD, leaving the HD-DVD market to specialty shops.


And so we continue to agree to disagree. It'll be an interesting year.

On edit: Correction. LG also "sorta" sells an HD-DVD player, in their combo unit. So that's 7 companies selling Blu-ray players to "2" companies selling HD-DVD players. Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, and LG - to Toshiba and LG.
 
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Currently Toshiba is the only company selling HD-DVD players. Several companies sell Blu-ray players, and after a late start, are just now gearing up with different models at different price points. I agree, the stand alone player concept will dominate in the future. I'm just not sure Toshiba will continue to dominate in this area.
On edit: Correction. LG also "sorta" sells an HD-DVD player, in their combo unit. So that's 7 companies selling Blu-ray players to "2" companies selling HD-DVD players. Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, and LG - to Toshiba and LG.

HD DVD players are made by a variety of manufacturers, including Toshiba,
Sanyo, NEC and RCA; peripherals are made by Xbox; notebooks (PCs) by HP, Toshiba, Niveus and Acer. It has been reported that Samsung will also produce a player as will Shinco (this will be the below$200.00 Chinese player) and.......http://www.avrev.com/news/0107/08.onkyo.shtml
 
My local Blockbuster brought in a section of HD and Blu-Ray rentals. Not the fastest at getting the new releases but was in there yesterday and they had Happy feet in both, Eragon in BluRay, Casino Royale in BluRay, about 30 to 40 other HD DVD and the same other BluRay. So at least some of the Blockbusters are giving it a go. Problem is, no noe seems to know about it but me. Manager says I am pretty much the only one that has rented any in the month they have been there.

My BB also has an equal amount of rentals available for both formats. I'm very happy with the BB online service that I have. Rentals by mail and by store. Right now I only own the XBOX 360 add HD add on and I love it. I consider myself an average joe with a family with bills bills bills. The reason I chose to buy the add on is because of the low price. I feel that is what drives the market....the lower the price for the players, the more people will buy. I do believe that BluRay will lower their prices big time to compete with the prices of hddvd. I do see movies out in BB for both formats so I know I'm not the only one renting them.
 
HD DVD players are made by a variety of manufacturers, including Toshiba,
Sanyo, NEC and RCA; peripherals are made by Xbox; notebooks (PCs) by HP, Toshiba, Niveus and Acer. It has been reported that Samsung will also produce a player as will Shinco (this will be the below$200.00 Chinese player) and.....[Onkyo]

Has the Sanyo hit the stores yet? I've only seen Toshiba. And I thought the RCA was no longer sold. The others are not released yet, if they ever are, or are not stand alone players, which is what I was referring to.
 

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