Will prices now come down?

[gchasse]

JoeSP,

You are right in general about prices coming down by increased demand in your scenario, but it is not a general rule among all industries, and I don't think you meant it that way.

The Chinese were supposed to be flooding the market with HD DVD players at low prices this year. If they switch that to BD, which I suspect they will, it will drive the prices down more quickly than would normally happen with a product going through its growing phase. I also think that because we only have one format now, sales will accelerate. I know that for myself, I will now be looking for a player soon. My price point is $200, however, before I jump in, and it won't be a chinese made player. I am hoping that maybe Toshiba will do something about that, assuming they can make money at that price point, to try to cut into the market share. I have a DVD recorder from them with a hard drive built in and it works very well.

 

[vurbano]

Vurbano, can you state why you expect BD hardware prices to rise? Just don't make a statement like you always do, explain yourself so that others might understand your stance.

No competition from another format. if you think you are going to see a standalone profile 2.0 player under 500 dollars you are dreaming. This is like the US stopping oil production and expecting the Arabs to lower oil prices.

 

[GaryPen]

My price point is $200, however, before I jump in, and it won't be a chinese made player. I am hoping that maybe Toshiba will do something about that, assuming they can make money at that price point, to try to cut into the market share.

Of course, anything from Toshiba will be Chinese-made.

 

[jayn_j]

Prices will go down when there is excess supply and the competition is whether to buy Pirates 6 or Star Trek 43.

The enemy is SD-DVD as it always has been, and the war will be won if and only if Blu-Ray players become common and you can sell a Blu-Ray title at DVD volumes.

 

[Peter Parker]

The lack of competition from another format will likely be offset by increased competition between different BD manufacturers (ecpect Toshiba to jump in along with several second and thiird tier Asian brand) and prices will likely fall.

but we will find out in 6-1 months.

 

[rcbridge]

I wouldn't be suprised to see the prices of the hardware to drop, but the media that may be another story!!

I can remember when CD's became the norm and there was talk of a $10 price per, never happened!!

 

[Zookster]

I wouldn't be suprised to see the prices of the hardware to drop, but the media that may be another story!!

I can remember when CD's became the norm and there was talk of a $10 price per, never happened!!

...while MSRPs on most single title SD DVDs are still in the $25-$30 range. As long as SD DVDs are still around, expect MSRPs on BDs to remain at least $5-$10 higher if for any other reason than to preserve the perception that they are the premium, higher-quality format. In reality, though, you will, and can now, often find the BD title for cheaper than the SD counterpart.

 

[diogen]

I wouldn't be suprised to see the prices of the hardware to drop...

One of the main reasons CEs are in this game is to make some money on optical players for a change...
Have a look at this short history of DVD players
http://www.satelliteguys.us/hd-dvd-blu-ray-war-zone/114565-short-history-dvd-soc-players.html
CEs will certainly try to prevent this from happening again soon...

...but the media that may be another story!!

The average price of a sold DVD in 2007 was ~$15 apiece. For BD this is $30 (not counting promos like BOGO, etc.)
This year the average selling price of a BD is suppose to hit $25 but I think fewer promotions will make consumers pay more per disc than last year.

Diogen.

 

[teachsac]

This year the average selling price of a BD is suppose to hit $25 but I think fewer promotions will make consumers pay more per disc than last year.

Diogen.

Not as long as Fox has a say. 27.95 (after discount) for a catalog title on Amazon... GMAFB

S~

 

[diogen]

Not as long as Fox has a say. 27.95 (after discount) for a catalog title on Amazon...

I expect them to go back to hiatus status as soon as BD+ is hacked, just like they did last year after AACS failed.

Diogen.

 

[nonrev]

I think some folks will enter the HDM market now that it's over. But not hordes, not immediately. And I doubt we'll see immediately lower prices- so I can't explain why J&R and Amazon are running such good deals right now.

Next Xmas we'll probably see a large move into HDM, and increased HDTV sales, as publicity over the digital transition kicks in. I'd expect good price drops by Turkey Day.

But who knows, Toshiba or some other company could decide to get VERY aggressive VERY fast and drop prices earlier. But I expect a pause, some breathing space and recouping of some losses before major price cuts. And they're still ramping up BD production, so there's no real rush to get Paramount and Universal into high gear.

Anybody know the schedule for opening more BD production plants? I haven't seen one for months, but it seems a few were to come on line by summer.

This is what I've been saying all along, but each time I state it I get accused of being mad that HD DVD lost or some other crap blah blah blah. Maybe now that someone not from the HD DVD side came out with it the BD fanboys will accept no price drops anytime soon.

 

[JoeSp]

No competition from another format. if you think you are going to see a standalone profile 2.0 player under 500 dollars you are dreaming. This is like the US stopping oil production and expecting the Arabs to lower oil prices.

Vurbano, I don't know why but, I expect to see the new Panny BD50 - a 2.0 player - with a MSRP at $549 and sold for under $500 at most internet sites at release or very shortly thereafter - within 90 days. Expect the BD30 to move to $449 or even $399 when the BD-50 hits the streets. I think my crystal ball is getting a little cloudy now--

 

[teachsac]

That said, I think that we should start seeing much lower prices both players and media by this summer. My reasoning is that once Toshiba announces that they are no longer supporting HD-DVD which in-effect would end the HD-DVD forum and thus allow Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks to put their movies on BD, then consumers who were setting on the sidelines would start jumping in.

When that happens I expect with increased sales and increased competition for those consumers that CE manufacturers would start passing along some of those savings they are now getting with smaller and less expensive componets. I expect to see sub $500 2.0 players by summer and maybe as low as $350 2.0 players by Xmas.

While costs are decreasing for some components, 1.1 and 2.0 bring about a whole new set of costs. 1.1 and 2.0 require dual HD video decoders which no player has had previously. In addition, a chipset that can decode DTS Master internally, something no player to date has been able to do.

There are ways to cut costs like bitstreaming audio only or not including the Reon processor for handling video based material and upconversion. Sigma hasn't proven to do well on this. The reason only the XA2 and BDP1200 have passed the HQV tests intially (none have been retested after firmware updates).

While demand is increasing, where is the supply? There are no 2.0 players on the market yet and only the BD50 even has a confirmation. Samsung, Denon, and Pioneer are all 1.1. The Cheapo Chinese players have no release date and have not released their specs. Interactivity brings about a whole other topic. I don't believe it is that important to the average consumer. Transformers had 30k unique hits to their site. I never did hear Warner's numbers from HP5.

S~

 

[JoeSp]

Any player entering the market right now HAS TO BE 1.1 compliant. There will be no more new 1.0 players introduced anymore. So, the only price differance between 1.1 and 2.0 is 1gb of memory and a ethernet connection which I believe you will start to see on all 1.1 products. Also, if the 1.1 player has a USB connection I wonder if that will be able to be used to provide the 1gb of memory required by 2.0. Either way, the 1mb of memory and the ethernet port is probably only going to add another $25 or $30 to the cost of the player. I think you guys are estimating the cost of the player way out of purportion as to the actual cost differance between 1.1 and 2.0. Now as for the MSRP-- that is a horse of a differant colour altogether. That also holds true for decoding both TDD5.1HD and DTSMasterHD in the player or simply bitstreaming out to a receiver that can decode the codec. I expect to see 2.0 players capable of passing the audio codecs thru bitstreaming under $500 as soon as this fall--and maybe sooner!

 

[teachsac]

I expect to see the new Panny BD50 - a 2.0 player - with a MSRP at $549 and sold for under $500 at most internet sites at release or very shortly thereafter - within 90 days. Expect the BD30 to move to $449 or even $399 when the BD-50 hits the streets. I think my crystal ball is getting a little cloudy now--

I'd say. Where'd you get the 549 MSRP from. They haven't even given it to me yet.

S~

 

[Peter Parker]

If the entire HDM market is not enough to sustain the foramt why the heck did any of us buy either format?

 

[JoeSp]

I did say my crystal ball was getting a little cloudy -- maybe that was $599?

 

[JoeSp]

If the entire HDM market is not enough to sustain the foramt why the heck did any of us buy either format?

That is why they call us EARLY ADOPTERS and we wear that badge proudly!

 

[hbk409]

question instead of having a ethernet port can manufactors have a wireless connection a still be considered 2.0? I personally think wireless would be a better way togo because how many people have an ethernet port by their tvs? I know I dont.

 

[Peter Parker]

That is why they call us EARLY ADOPTERS and we wear that badge proudly!

early adopter is fine if the product has a chance for eventual success. but what thse guysa re saying is that it had no chance---unless of course the competitiion from HD DVD was going to drive prices down in a way that competition among different vendors in the same format could not.