Apple losses are Google gains

It looks like the status quo in the US smartphone market has been established.
At least this conclusion can be drawn from the latest Nielsen report
Nielsen: Android gained no ground in April

No one from the leading trio - Android, iOS, BlackBerry - could improve their marketshare.
Combined, they control 36+26+22=84% of the smartphone market.
This doesn't mean they aren't growing, only that their growth matches the market growth.

Whether this is a temporary situation, only time will tell.
But this could be the light in the tunnel that WP7 and/or webOS need...:)

It will be interesting to see whether IceCream and/or iPhone5 change this status quo.

Diogen.

EDIT:
The chart

smartphone-market-share.jpg


It is interesting that for every 3 iPhones in use in the US, there is one Windows Mobile device...
 
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Whether it's IDC, Nielsen, ComScore or any other bean counter, they all tell the same:
Apple and RIM have about the same smartphone OS market share while Google is 10% ahead...
ComScore: Android grows larger than ever among US subscribers, Apple belittles RIM -- Engadget

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It looks like the 35/25/25 is the new status-quo. And it might not change drastically for a while.
The remaining 15% might be the part that's in the waiting state: webOS, WP7/8, MeeGo, PadFone, etc.
That 15% will probably have to decide soon. I don't expect more than 5% left for the "undecided" when the dust settles...

Outside the US smartphone market I'd expect Android to have at least 50% market share...

Diogen.
 
An interesting gadget market analysis looking at the developer angle on different platforms
Developer Economics 2011 – Winners and losers in the platform race | VisionMobile :: blog

It isn't much of a surprise that Android leads here (only the highly impartial Apple users believe
Android developers are confused to death and not having a "dear leader" is "detrimental"...:))

VisionMobile-Developer-Economics-Developer-Mindshare.png


But what is of potential interest to developers is really interesting

VisionMobile-Developer-Economics-2011-Intentshare.png


Another point that the fat lady hasn't sang for Microsoft yet...

Diogen.

PS Future interest in iOS is as high as in MeeGo! Gota love that!
 
IDC revised their prediction for 2015, by a little bit...
Windows phone 7 is set to outgrow android and ios over the next few years- The Inquirer

The marketshare split (by 2015) between Android/iOS/WP7 is revised from 45.4%/15.3%/20.9% in March to 43.8%/16.9%/20.3% today.
In other words, about 80% of Symbian users will be transferred to WP7. And the remaining 20% will be lost in the transition, to Android primarily.

Considering methods used by the bean counters (extrapolation, essentially) and the latest updates from Redmond (Mango, Win8),
I think this prediction sounds less stupid (please note, I didn't say "more credible"...:)) than three months ago...

The overall smartphone market in terms of number of handsets, will grow from 305M in 2010 to almost a billion (982M) in 2015.

Diogen.
 
IDC revised their prediction for 2015, by a little bit...
Windows phone 7 is set to outgrow android and ios over the next few years- The Inquirer

The marketshare split (by 2015) between Android/iOS/WP7 is revised from 45.4%/15.3%/20.9% in March to 43.8%/16.9%/20.3% today.
In other words, about 80% of Symbian users will be transferred to WP7. And the remaining 20% will be lost in the transition, to Android primarily.

Considering methods used by the bean counters (extrapolation, essentially) and the latest updates from Redmond (Mango, Win8),
I think this prediction sounds less stupid (please note, I didn't say "more credible"...:)) than three months ago...

The overall smartphone market in terms of number of handsets, will grow from 305M in 2010 to almost a billion (982M) in 2015.

Diogen.

New Nokia Drama Edges it Towards Crisis - Tech Europe - WSJ

I think it is still a bit optomistic that 80% nokia's customers remain loyal.

The WSJ reports Nokia debt being downgraded as the company sheds market share and profits rapidly.

Another day, another Nokia crisis. No wonder Nokia CEO Stephen Elop shot off the stage at London’s Open Mobile Summit the moment he could. As he skulked out the back way he looked a troubled man.

To lose your CTO and be downgraded on the same day is never going to put you in the best of moods, but his keynote speech to this gathering of developers and executives had been confident, if not particularly revealing.

But he did break a couple of pieces of news. He stood by the commitment that the first Nokia Windows Phone would be released in the fourth quarter of this year, and what was new was he suggested that the software would have unique Nokia features.

Nokia Warns Core Is Under Pressure - WSJ.com

Nokia Corp. warned it might not book a profit in its core cellphone business this quarter, as the Finnish company struggles in a smartphone market increasingly dominated by nimbler rivals such as Google Inc. and Apple Inc.

The company's bleak outlook, including sharply lower sales forecasts, sent its shares tumbling to their lowest levels in more than decade. Its American depositary shares ended down 14% to $7.02 at 4 p.m. on the New York Stock Exchange. Nokia has now lost 75% of its market value in the last four years.

Fitch Lowers Nokia Credit Rating - WSJ.com

Fitch Ratings downgraded Nokia Corp.'s credit ratings by two notches, to one step away from junk territory, saying that the cellphone maker's market share quickly deteriorated and will take time to recover.

If it is going to be 6 months before they come out with their first window's phone they might not have any market share left to give up.
 
I wish I had all the free time you do to chase down every pro windows phone news tidbit.
A dozen sites, one hour a day. Posting and tracing links about the same time...

You should wish to be more open minded: easier to achieve, mostly positive outcome, much broader application, etc.

Diogen.
 
A dozen sites, one hour a day. Posting and tracing links about the same time...

Like I said...

You should wish to be more open minded: easier to achieve, mostly positive outcome, much broader application, etc.

Windows has had every opportunity to succeed in the mobile market. They have yet to do so. I don't see anything that changes this dynamic.




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And Apple fights back ?

Apparently Apple is now selling UnLocked iPhones.
I don't think this is a marketshare play.
For most of the world this is not news. In UK this was an option since day one. And so in Germany.

I believe this is an admission that subscription based system has reached saturation.
To squeeze more $$$ from the "non-organized" consumer, Apple is undercutting scalpers, unlockers and e-bayers...

Diogen.
 
In this case- Apple's loss is JC Penney's gain.

A shocker to the industry was released yesterday when Apple's head of retail sales division, Ron Johnson, resigned to take the CEO position at JC Penney.

Johnson will be paid a base salary of $1.5 million and has a target incentive award that's set at 125% of his base salary. He also will receive 1.66 million restricted stock units, compensating for what he's leaving behind at Apple.

While many here and elsewhere love to place Steve Jobs as the single handed genius behind Apple, fact is there are many creative people behind the scenes who synergistically make the success story at Apple and Steve Jobs is simply a motivator who steers the direction of the company, aside from being a public icon for Apple. The actual success story is the result of many who work behind the scenes. Ron Johnson was one of them who is credited in the company for the innovative way the Apple Retail stores are laid out and how they attract sales per sq ft. that tops every retail store in the world. Per Jim Carmer, tops the second best retailer by a factor of 4 times sales dollar volume per sq ft.. If you ever visited an Apple Store the worst part is finding room to enter the place. Ron Johnson was the genius behind how the Apple Store concept works. He is also credited with the ideas behind the marketing strategy on the ipod and iphone. His loss at Apple will certainly be a game changer within the company. Time will tell if Apple can replace him with one of equal talents.
If Apple loses Steve Jobs and Tim Cook, it could cease to be the powerhouse of tech, being reduced to just another Microsoft, HP, Dell, or Intel, floundering to find it's way. Time will tell but this investor is watching closely and ready to bail at the smallest sign of punching through the floor of resistance ( stock tech speak). I will be satisfied to take my profits and run with a smile. Times are a changing, that's for sure. It was a nice ride but to continue will be the biggest challenge for Apple yet. When you're number one there is only one direction to go.
 
Why pay for favorable research (what Microsoft most likely does) if you can pay for interpretation instead?

iPhone leads European smartphone market with 40 pct share

Huh?
Apple has twice the market share of Android in Europe?
That sounds even more suspicious than WP7 beating iOS by 2015...

So, let's do something that no Apple faithful will ever attempt: read the original research this was based on

New survey offering finds 40 percent of smartphone buyers plan to choose an iPhone.

A small discrepancy: there is a word "plan" in the sentence. In other words, those numbers have nothing to do with today's reality!

But who gives a f**k, right? Certainly not the "Apple Uber Alles!" crowd...:)

Diogen.
 
If a)Intel's bet on low power CPUs pays off in the next 12 months and b)Microsoft can make Win7 scalable (and call it Windows 8),
by 2015 ARM will have as much marketshare in gadget-land as AMD has today in laptops.
Despite quite a bit of love lost between those two comprising the Wintel giant, both realize it would be easier to fight back together...
Intel’s Cloverview scheduled to hit around the same time as Windows 8, will go up against ARM devices | This is my next...
Microsoft’s been very clear on one of its Windows 8 strategies: it will not follow the typical Wintel paradigm. The new operating system will work with a slew of ARM-powered devices, whether they be tablets or laptops. Certainly, that presents a new major threat for Intel, but a bit more about Chipzilla’s Windows 8 competitive strategy is coming to light. According to Intel’s Director of Product and Technology Media Relations Bill Kircos, the Atom Clover Trail platform and its Cloverview processor are being designed to work with Microsoft’s forthcoming tile-adorned OS. The silicon platform is being timed with Windows 8 (or for the second half of 2012) and it will be a “nice one-two chip-software punch,” says Kircos.

Diogen.