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Two of our local (government) businesses did run a 6-month trial of an iPad+BlackBerry for all level execs.
The claim is, they made it work. But decided to wait for the PlayBook as a tablet companion.
For some reason replacing the phone was never on the agenda.
Could well be because RIM is Canadian...:)

Diogen.
 
diogen said:
First IDC and now Gartner predict Windows Phone 7 will be in second place by 2015.
Click to expand...
Gartner is on the roll. This time they decided to see what the future holds for the tablet OS market
Gartner: Apple will dominate tablet space for years, Android won't drink its milkshake until after 2015 -- Engadget
And it looks really good for the Apple tablets...

gartner-tablets-2011-04-11.jpg


In other words, Apple's dominance of the tablet market will last longer (2010-2015) than the smartphone market...

Diogen.
 
Nielsen: Desire for iPhone slips as Android gains Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13506_3-20057445-17.html#ixzz1KkRFWhFA

According to the research firm, 31 percent of U.S. mobile consumers plan on buying an Android-based smartphone in the next year. Nielsen found that 30 percent of respondents plan to get their hands on an iPhone in the next 12 months. RIM's BlackBerry smartphones and Windows Phone 7-based devices were desired by 11 percent and 6 percent of the respondents, respectively. Surprisingly, 20 percent of those surveyed are still unsure of which smartphone they want to buy.
Click to expand...
 
Android appstore is getting closer to beat Apple appstore in number of apps
Google hot on the heels of Apple in app race

This is just to show that the installed base is not the only factor attracting developers.
Popularity and dynamics - where Android is in the lead - is just as important if not more...

It would be interesting to compare the number of fart apps in each store...;)

Diogen.
 
Another Canalys report
Android increases smart phone market leadership with 35% share

Main points:
1. Worldwide smartphone sales - 101M units.
2. Smartphone marketshare shrank (39% -> 24%)
3. Top 6 smartphone manufacturers: Nokia, Apple, RIM, Samsung HTC, LG.
4. China, S.Korea and India are the fastest growing markets.
5. Android is leading with 35% of the world smartphone market and 49% of the US.

Nothing surprising except for the smartphone marketshare drop.
Just shows the cell technology in general grows even faster...

Diogen.
 
diogen said:
...while others call this very pessimistic
Graph shows Windows Phone skyrocketing to the top by 2013
Starting next year WP7 will match Android marketshare and surpass it in 2013...

pyramid-research-windows-phone-domination.jpg


Diogen.
Click to expand...

Someone at pyramid research must have a lot of MS stock and want to sell it. I could possibly see Windows phone OS beating out Apple some day, but I do not see them beating out android any time soon. As much as Nokia used to run the cell phone business they are just not going to bring that many customers to MS.

iOS will be limited by only a single vendor selling it. As innovative as they can be they will still be limited. But, I bet they still make a ton of profit.

Windows has to compete with "free" (google). Or rely on hardware makers (i.e. Apple has complete control). Nokia may be flogging Windows phone rather than go down with the Symbian ship, but other vendors will not be as easily convinced.

As soon as I saw the announcement that Nokia was going Windows I thought that it was the end of Nokia. They will be relegated to a bit player now in the cell phone business.
 
mike123abc said:
Windows has to compete with "free" (google).
Click to expand...
The netbook industry started with 8/16GB SSD machines running Linux.
In the timespan of about 12 months they were running Windows on 40GB+ hard drives with Linux not even an option.
Microsoft knows how to compete with free... :)

This time it might be different. But not necessarily so...
Just like when the internet started, the old guard is under attack. Microsoft is joined this time by Intel, Cisco, Dell, etc.
I not only don't believe they are going to disappear without a fight, I think most predictions of this sort resemble the crazy techno-bubble 98-99 talk when AOL's Chase was seriously suggesting with Wall Street analyst that the internet paradigm changes everything and being profitable isn't needed for a company...

Today's Chromebook is very similar to the netbook of 3 years ago: same 16GB SDD, about twice as fast and attached to the cloud.
Detach it from the cloud and it is Windows 8 fight to lose...

Diogen.
 
diogen said:
The netbook industry started with 8/16GB SSD machines running Linux.
In the timespan of about 12 months they were running Windows on 40GB+ hard drives with Linux not even an option.
Microsoft knows how to compete with free... :)
Click to expand...

There is a big difference in what runs on a smartphone or a laptop. Linux for a desktop replacement will never be there as MS will always have the dominate share of the marketplace. Linux will only ever populate into the high tech users of the world. Most don't want to have to worry about (or know how to) compiling applications to run on their distribution.
 
diogen said:
The netbook industry started with 8/16GB SSD machines running Linux.
In the timespan of about 12 months they were running Windows on 40GB+ hard drives with Linux not even an option.
Microsoft knows how to compete with free... :)

This time it might be different. But not necessarily so...
Just like when the internet started, the old guard is under attack. Microsoft is joined this time by Intel, Cisco, Dell, etc.
I not only don't believe they are going to disappear without a fight, I think most predictions of this sort resemble the crazy techno-bubble 98-99 talk when AOL's Chase was seriously suggesting with Wall Street analyst that the internet paradigm changes everything and being profitable isn't needed for a company...

Today's Chromebook is very similar to the netbook of 3 years ago: same 16GB SDD, about twice as fast and attached to the cloud.
Detach it from the cloud and it is Windows 8 fight to lose...

Diogen.
Click to expand...

The thing is that Windows was already established as the leader with a vast majority of the laptop/desktop space. If you were not windows compatible you could not run any PC program.

This time around MS does not have the current monopoly to defend. They are the ones that have to build market share, this is not something that MS has done in 25 years (about when they took over the office software market but they again already had the OS monopoly and were able to leverage it). Yes IE was more recent but that was a forced in upgrade to the OS that you got no matter what. Office was something you had to buy.

People do not need windows running on their phone. But, instead must be convinced to buy a phone with it on it. MS needs to have a compelling argument.
 
JAG72 said:
There is a big difference in what runs on a smartphone or a laptop.
Click to expand...
Yes and no.
Outside the Apple world pragmatism still rules. And that boils down to how useful you can make 1 mWh.
This can be split into two parts: hardware (ARM is better than Intel) and software (Mac OS X is better than Windows).
Monopolistic behavior, first mover advantage, cash pile to bribe customers/OEMs/legislators/etc. can delay but not prevent the inevitable.

If a)Intel's bet on low power CPUs pays off in the next 12 months and b)Microsoft can make Win7 scalable (and call it Windows 8),
by 2015 ARM will have as much marketshare in gadget-land as AMD has today in laptops.
Just like Linux did in netbook-land...

I'd pin the combined probability of this as 50/50 (0.7 for each). I believe Intel has the best fabs and Microsoft is on the roll lately.
Also, if you know it might be your last fight, money is usually not an argument. And both of Wintel have piles of it...
JAG72 said:
Linux for a desktop replacement will never be there...
Click to expand...
Really?
Up until about 1-2 years ago I constantly read that Linux is gona take over by the weekend.
Mind you, it never came from a guy like Linus...:)
JAG72 said:
Most don't want to have to worry about (or know how to) compiling applications to run on their distribution.
Click to expand...
Compiling applications?
Could you list a few that you had to compile for your distribution?
And that at least remotely qualified as generic desktop application...

Diogen.
 
mike123abc said:
People do not need windows running on their phone. But, instead must be convinced to buy a phone with it on it. MS needs to have a compelling argument.
Click to expand...
Good points.
And as I said, this time it might be different. Here is why I think it might not...

1. Moore's law. Still intact.
In 1-2 years a phone will be capable of doing anything a notebook needs to do.
That means Moto's docks will become more popular, i.e. you can't separate phone and notebook anymore.
http://www.engadget.com/2011/05/01/motorola-promises-more-atrix-like-laptop-docks-for-future-phones/
Or maybe ASUS Transformer-like gadgets. Or any other form factor...

2. Upgrade cycle.
Just like corporate PCs were upgraded every 2-3 years, next generation phone/notebooks will be just as often if not more.
Even if only because a smartphone is a fashion accessory more that any other gadget...

All this points to the war having just began, it is not gona end tomorrow and leverages Microsoft has/had are still important...

Diogen.
 
Microsoft's biggest advantage in the phone market is a ton of cash. Apple has a ton also and has put out a compelling product. Less and less stuff actually runs on people's PCs as the net becomes stronger, hence the success of the ipad.

MS just unloaded 8.5 billion on skype. I wonder what they are planning to do with it? I do not see carriers anxious to promote skype. Even with limited data plans, VOIP dialing does not use enough bandwidth to offset the lost cell minutes. Google considered buying skype 2 years ago How Google Stopped Itself From Buying Skype

MS has been rudderless since Gates stopped running everything. They make their cash on existing windows/office, but when a large number of netbooks/home pcs get rolled over into tablets they will lose their lock. Businesses will be slower to convert away, but erosion is already starting. MS has a good quarter and their stock goes down Microsoft's quarterly earnings show its worldwide dominance is waning - Computerworld Blogs

I do not doubt that MS will stay around and have a large share, I just am not convinced that they will grab the majority of the phone market.
 

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