How many HD DVD players does Toshiba need to sell to just break even?

[chicagofilms]

I didn't want to get in an argument with you on the weekend but after editing your post twice you pushed it... I'll try to make it short.
You don't get it? Here, I'll help you...
Because "the HD DVD group" doesn't make movies...

I could've used your tagline and say
but I know it is very hard for you to grasp. It took me at least three posts to make you wrap
your brain around the bandwidth issue (that you since claim you always understood ).

Truth is not what's worshipped at the altar of the Joe_the_Stupid, we all know that by now...

Diogen.

If the HD-DVD group are not the ones making them, then where are they coming from? Elves?

Joe did not say "DVD Forum" or even "HD-DVD Promotion Group". He was making a generic comment about the HD-DVD camp in general, hence the small "g" "HD-DVD group".

So, before you go attacking his intelligence, learn the wonders of the proper noun...

He did bring up a good point, btw. "Cheaper to produce" is one of the HD-DVD camp mantras (at least I've seen it many times in these forums). Yet the movies cost the same as BD. The only reason that makes sense is that they are trying to recoup losses on the hardware, the same model as game companies and why games cost $60.

That brings us back to Joe's legit comment. If the HD-DVD group (collection of individual studios) lowered the price to something comparable to SD DVD, they'd be a force to be reckoned with. At the very least, they probably would not be getting beaten 2:1 each week.

 

[CochiseGuy]

The only way HD-DVD can catch up is to give their discs for free yes.

Or, conversely, the only way Blu-ray can stay ahead is to give away movies for free to skew the numbers:

So look: The HD DVD group has decided on a strategy of pricing players cheaply to get them into homes while maintaining the pricing of HD movies a premium to DVD. The BDA has decided on a strategy of maintaining pricing of BD players a premium to DVD players, relying on the common practice of selling game consoles below cost to get BD players into home in the guise of a PS3 - and then giving away movies for free in hope of hooking the gamers into HD movies - and artificially inflate the "dominance" of BD movie sales figures.

We'll see which strategy works. Or - perhaps more importantly in the end - which strategy Warner thinks makes more sense: rely on a cheap game machine and give movies away for free, or maintaining high-def content a premium to DVD.

 

[Peter Parker]

Funny, I thought the thread topic was about toshiba making money. ANd now addressing the topic is somehow misdirection? Why? Because it doesnt cater to the blue smurfs FUD? :haha

well then you misunderstood the thread topic---and you were not alone. A few thought that and a few more of us answered their arguments but that was not the original thread topic.

You would almost think that some of us have a reading comprehension problem.

 

[diogen]

So, before you go attacking his intelligence, learn the wonders of the proper noun...

FYI, you can't attack something that doesn't exist...

Diogen.

 

[vurbano]

"How many HD DVD players does Toshiba need to sell to just break even?"

Its all about sales strategy as Cochise has pointed out.

So look: The HD DVD group has decided on a strategy of pricing players cheaply to get them into homes while maintaining the pricing of HD movies a premium to DVD. The BDA has decided on a strategy of maintaining pricing of BD players a premium to DVD players, relying on the common practice of selling game consoles below cost to get BD players into home in the guise of a PS3 - and then giving away movies for free in hope of hooking the gamers into HD movies - and artificially inflate the "dominance" of BD movie sales figures.

We'll see which strategy works. Or - perhaps more importantly in the end - which strategy Warner thinks makes more sense: rely on a cheap game machine and give movies away for free, or maintaining high-def content a premium to DVD.

I sure know which way I am going if I am Warner. I doubt they are interested in giving away their product for free.

 

[Peter Parker]

No I am not the thread police. All I did was point out taht you were mistaken when you tried to correct others. In doing so I was more courteous to you than you generally are to others. If I you feel i was too harsh perhaps you should reconsider your own presentation around here. Still in all if you were truly offended that is regrettable.

 

[vurbano]

No I am not the thread police. All I did was point out taht you were mistaken when you tried to correct others. In doing so I was more courteous to you than you generally are to others. If I you feel i was too harsh perhaps you should reconsider your own presentation around here. Still in all if you were truly offended that is regrettable.

Once again another nonsense offtopic post contributing nothing. AT this point your posts are just noise IMO. Frankly I'm tired of looking at you.

 

[Peter Parker]

Then don't look at me. We will both come out ahead.

 

[JoeSp]

I didn't want to get in an argument with you on the weekend but after editing your post twice you pushed it... I'll try to make it short.
You don't get it? Here, I'll help you...
Because "the HD DVD group" doesn't make movies...

I could've used your tagline and say
but I know it is very hard for you to grasp. It took me at least three posts to make you wrap
your brain around the bandwidth issue (that you since claim you always understood ).

Truth is not what's worshipped at the altar of the Joe_the_Stupid, we all know that by now...

Diogen.

You sir are mistaken if you think that the studios supporting HD-DVD are not part of the 'HD-DVD group". Perhaps you think the Studios don't care about the medium they put their product on and don't care to have a say in the developement, retail and success of the product they are supporting. And you also don't think that $150 mil paid out to Paramount and Dreamworks actually came out of thin air -- do you? Like I said before, when the facts and the truth doesn't match what you want to say or what you believe to be true -- namecalling is always your best card to retreat too -- right?

 

[JoeSp]

Or, conversely, the only way Blu-ray can stay ahead is to give away movies for free to skew the numbers:

So look: The HD DVD group has decided on a strategy of pricing players cheaply to get them into homes while maintaining the pricing of HD movies a premium to DVD. The BDA has decided on a strategy of maintaining pricing of BD players a premium to DVD players, relying on the common practice of selling game consoles below cost to get BD players into home in the guise of a PS3 - and then giving away movies for free in hope of hooking the gamers into HD movies - and artificially inflate the "dominance" of BD movie sales figures.

We'll see which strategy works. Or - perhaps more importantly in the end - which strategy Warner thinks makes more sense: rely on a cheap game machine and give movies away for free, or maintaining high-def content a premium to DVD.

I agree with you to a point. The BDA supporting studios are moving disc off shelves with their BOGOs. (Why won't Sony do this?, how about Fox!) But you fail to meantion that the leading studio in BD sales is Warner -- they are blowing away their closest competitior and they don't do BOGOS. Neither does Sony nor does Fox. So BOGOs cannot be the sole reason for BluRays continued discs sales lead over HD-DVD.

Toshiba's $98 pricing is a horse of a differant color. They are trying to boost their in home numbers because Toshiba knows all those PS3's that can play BluRay movies are not just going to be used for games by everybody. They also can see the handwriting on the wall when the BDA has erroded their standalone lead from Janurary at 73% to where they stand now at 53%. This is standalones only and does not take into account the PS3 or Xbox360 HD-DVD drives in homes.

On sheer numbers Toshiba is falling behind slowly and the differance is growing. If the only way Toshiba can stay in the game is to drop their prices lower then that is what they have to do. It is drop prices or get out.

As I stated earlier, my problem with this is that now consumers know that Toshiba will do a 'Firesale' most are waiting for the next one and that keeps dollars out of the HD-DVD pocket. How does that help Toshiba and HD-DVD?

Okay, lets say Toshiba does a 'firesale' every month and they sell 100,000 units -- the PS3 is currently doing more then that every week. And we are not counting the BluRay standalones in this scenario. I just don't see how you keep going to the floor on retail does anything other then extend your life while you hold out for a miracle. Maybe one will happen for Toshiba but I don't see it anytime soon and I think they need a sooner then later miracle.

 

[akodoreign]

I agree with you to a point. The BDA supporting studios are moving disc off shelves with their BOGOs. (Why won't Sony do this?, how about Fox!) But you fail to meantion that the leading studio in BD sales is Warner -- they are blowing away their closest competitior and they don't do BOGOS. Neither does Sony nor does Fox. So BOGOs cannot be the sole reason for BluRays continued discs sales lead over HD-DVD.

Toshiba's $98 pricing is a horse of a differant color. They are trying to boost their in home numbers because Toshiba knows all those PS3's that can play BluRay movies are not just going to be used for games by everybody. They also can see the handwriting on the wall when the BDA has erroded their standalone lead from Janurary at 73% to where they stand now at 53%. This is standalones only and does not take into account the PS3 or Xbox360 HD-DVD drives in homes.

On sheer numbers Toshiba is falling behind slowly and the differance is growing. If the only way Toshiba can stay in the game is to drop their prices lower then that is what they have to do. It is drop prices or get out.

As I stated earlier, my problem with this is that now consumers know that Toshiba will do a 'Firesale' most are waiting for the next one and that keeps dollars out of the HD-DVD pocket. How does that help Toshiba and HD-DVD?

Okay, lets say Toshiba does a 'firesale' every month and they sell 100,000 units -- the PS3 is currently doing more then that every week. And we are not counting the BluRay standalones in this scenario. I just don't see how you keep going to the floor on retail does anything other then extend your life while you hold out for a miracle. Maybe one will happen for Toshiba but I don't see it anytime soon and I think they need a sooner then later miracle.

Yeah, but is this because Sony was a year late to market so they could put a crutch under the format; maybe because none of their previous movie formats had ever succeed?

Brand loyalty to the PS2 spurring sales of PS3, Only to have Sony pull backwards compatibility?

I think that people should get whatever is cheaper at this point. Either format can fall on its face and leave people a few dollars poorer..

and then no one truly wins.

 

[diogen]

Perhaps you think the Studios don't care about the medium they put their product on and don't care to have a say in the developement...

Yes, I do.
Risking to repeat the obvious, profits drive any business decision. Stidious are not exceptions.
And I think we all agreed that studios will decide the winner.

Warner has the largest market share in both formats (or close to).
Warner says it sells twice as many discs on BD than HD (at least some).
Warner stays neutral since the formats are introduced.

Why?
Please, don't get started with "not smart to put all eggs in one basket", since that would mean all other studios are stupid.

Could it be that they make more per HD disc sold?
Could it be that they remember the fate of the UMD format (another Sony game console, remember PSP)?
When within a year it went from excitement to complete disaster.
Could it be that Sony is eating some of the expenses related to titles released?

I believe, there is something very substantial that we don't know in terms of costs/profits. And probably never will untill this war is over.

And your rhetoric won't change anything there...

Just like CochiseGuy said, there are two business models

The HD DVD group has decided on a strategy of pricing players cheaply to get them into homes while maintaining the pricing of HD movies a premium to DVD. The BDA has decided on a strategy of maintaining pricing of BD players a premium to DVD players, relying on the common practice of selling game consoles below cost to get BD players into home in the guise of a PS3 - and then giving away movies for free in hope of hooking the gamers into HD movies - and artificially inflate the "dominance" of BD movie sales figures.

and time will tell who wins.

Diogen.

 

[teachsac]

But you fail to meantion that the leading studio in BD sales is Warner -- they are blowing away their closest competitior and they don't do BOGOS. Neither does Sony nor does Fox. So BOGOs cannot be the sole reason for BluRays continued discs sales lead over HD-DVD.[/will happen for ToshibaQUOTE]

Um... Sony and Fox have done BOGOS. Why? As Cochise said, to pad their numbers. Also to get rid of these titles that aren't selling at retail. How do you think I got some of my Fox titles. Sony, Warner, and Fox, all had Buy two get one free last weekend on the BD side. Casino Royale was one of the 104 choices as was Troy: Director's Cut. I passed on Troy (no Lossless, so I bought it from Warner for 25%off).

S~

 

[akodoreign]

But you fail to meantion that the leading studio in BD sales is Warner -- they are blowing away their closest competitior and they don't do BOGOS. Neither does Sony nor does Fox. So BOGOs cannot be the sole reason for BluRays continued discs sales lead over HD-DVD.[/will happen for ToshibaQUOTE]

Um... Sony and Fox have done BOGOS. Why? As Cochise said, to pad their numbers. Also to get rid of these titles that aren't selling at retail. How do you think I got some of my Fox titles. Sony, Warner, and Fox, all had Buy two get one free last weekend on the BD side. Casino Royale was one of the 104 choices as was Troy: Director's Cut. I passed on Troy (no Lossless, so I bought it from Warner for 25%off).

S~

Saw Troy on A DLP high definition theater system when it first came out.

I would have passed on it for umm... other reasons.

 

[JoeSp]

diogen, nobody here is denying that profit is the reason for business. It is just that this particular thread is not about profit -- it is about equality in disc sales between the formats and what Toshiba would have to do to make that happen.

And if we go by the adage that the one with the most players in the homes will lead in disc sales then it must be true as BluRay has the most players in the homes right now and they lead in disc sales.

If you have some input as to how Toshiba can turn this around and overtake the number of total players in the home lets hear it.

 

[nonrev]

Toshiba may not have to do anything to overtake if BOGO sales are calculated properly(certain weeks) ex. Bourne next week. I'm sure Sony will launch a BOGO that week.

 

[diogen]

If you have some input as to how Toshiba can turn this around and overtake the number of total players in the home lets hear it.

I don't.
And as long as HD/BD combined account for 1-2% of the optical disc movie market, I won't waste time looking for one.
The very fact that BD has 4 times(!!) as many players in homes and is not closer to winning the war than a year ago makes the whole "# of players" issue very murky.
Add to that winning 2:1 in discs sales, and still no cigars. Why? Those both metrics are irrelevant - money in studios' pocket is the one and only fact that counts.

Toshiba has to create a market for studios to make money in by selling movies on optical discs in its format. Enough money for them not to drop HD. The only one studio left that is not religious about a format - any format - is Warner. And Warner has both formats by the balls. And Warner is neutral. Hence, Toshiba is doing its job just fine. Will it last? Time will tell.

To paraphrase your question: If you have some input as to how Warner can turn this around and actually make twice as much money on BD than on HD, let's hear it.
If they did it now, they wouldn't be neutral, I believe, and the war would be over.

And if you could avoid rhetoric, I'd appreciate it.

Diogen.

 

[ONUOsFan]

I don't.
And as long as HD/BD combined account for 1-2% of the optical disc movie market, I won't waste time looking for one.
The very fact that BD has 4 times(!!) as many players in homes and is not closer to winning the war than a year ago makes the whole "# of players" issue very murky.
Add to that winning 2:1 in discs sales, and still no cigars. Why? Those both metrics are irrelevant - money in studios' pocket is the one and only fact that counts.

Toshiba has to create a market for studios to make money in by selling movies on optical discs in its format. Enough money for them not to drop HD. The only one studio left that is not religious about a format - any format - is Warner. And Warner has both formats by the balls. And Warner is neutral. Hence, Toshiba is doing its job just fine. Will it last? Time will tell.

To paraphrase your question: If you have some input as to how Warner can turn this around and actually make twice as much money on BD than on HD, let's hear it.
If they did it now, they wouldn't be neutral, I believe, and the war would be over.

And if you could avoid rhetoric, I'd appreciate it.

Diogen.

I would be curious to know what Warner's cost and profit (if any) are on BD vs. HD. If they're roughly the same, and they're selling twice as many copies on BD, it would make you wonder what they're waiting for..... unless they're not actually the same.

Maybe it's a balancing act - which one happens first? HD-DVD getting enough penetration to drive up sales or BD getting enough sales to drive down costs?

Of course, I could be totally off base on the whole thing...

 

[akodoreign]

I would be curious to know what Warner's cost and profit (if any) are on BD vs. HD. If they're roughly the same, and they're selling twice as many copies on BD, it would make you wonder what they're waiting for..... unless they're not actually the same.

Maybe it's a balancing act - which one happens first? HD-DVD getting enough penetration to drive up sales or BD getting enough sales to drive down costs?

Of course, I could be totally off base on the whole thing...

The second would be difficult until the move to a .40 micron process. Sony loses like 300 on every sale of their PS3 as is. I doubt they want to lose more right now.

And that is undoubtedly the cheapest Blue player out there right now.

 

[diogen]

I would be curious to know what Warner's cost and profit (if any) are on BD vs. HD.

That's the million dollar question. And I doubt they will tell us.

Warner and Sony are the only 2 studios that do the authoring in-house. They have the best understanding of what it costs
and where those costs are going. No outsourcing contracts that expire (like Paramount had with Sony).

Warner doesn't like the war and even made an attempt to introduce TotalHD to make it go away.
It didn't work. But they still haven't gone exclusive although this would be the most sure way to end this war.

Having 70% more storage on BD, they still do one encode, even when it looks like it's not true:
AVS Forum - View Single Post - Has Warner started using format-specific encodes?
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets HD DVD (2h41m): 25.16 GB
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets Blu-ray (2h41m): 40.35 GB

They seem to be treated like royalties by MS' team that writes the VC-1 encoder.

As long as Warner stays neutral, BDA can file away its "We Won!" transparencies, IMHO. And Microsoft/Toshiba will do everything to keep it this way.

Diogen.