How many HD DVD players does Toshiba need to sell to just break even?

[chicagofilms]

From EngadgetHD

"The red camp loves to tout the number of players sold, just last week they were very proud to let us know that they'd sold 750k players so far. This is great, but with the BDA not saying how many they've sold, it's a number without perspective. One number that does have perspective is the weekly VideoScan numbers which are about 2:1 for the year. While it's easy to say HD DVD needs to double the number of players -- assuming the same attach rate -- there is the very debatable PS3 factor. Well, in this week's Home Media Magazine, Tom Adams of Adams Media Research is quoted as saying there will be about 370K stand-alone Blu-ray players on the streets by the end of the year. So, assuming there are over 2 million PS3s, we'd estimate that about 50% of the owners buy Blu-ray movies. Of course the other possibility is that Blu-ray actually has a better attach rate than HD DVD. Either way, anyone would have a hard time arguing that HD DVD needs to do do anything less than double the number of players on the market if they want to even break even -- and that's a lot of players."

 

[riffjim4069]

Both camps are losing money, the adoption rate for both formats is miniscule compared to DVD, and both formats risk being rejected or surprassed by other emerging technologies.

The format war is actually pretty good for early adopters since, this time, we're getting subsidized hardware and lot's of freebies and special offers.

 

[jayn_j]

Both camps are losing money, the adoption rate for both formats is miniscule compared to DVD, and both formats risk being rejected or surprassed by other emerging technologies.

The format war is actually pretty good for early adopters since, this time, we're getting subsidized hardware and lot's of freebies and special offers.

Well, yes and no. Lower costs come with volume and the format war is keeping a lot of people away from the stores. They need to subsidize to get the prices down to where they would be if they were getting the volumes needed for success.

One other thing, they are still marketing these players as HIGH DEFINITION/upper end geek stuff. They need to be marketing them as a step up somewhat better DVD player that can also play those new fangled better DVDs. Goes for both formats.

 

[vurbano]

SOny lost around 750 million on the PS3 last quarter.

Question: How many does sony need to sell to break even?

Answer: The only way to stop losing money on it is to stop selling it.

 

[Peter Parker]

Rather than try not o answer the question for the format you support does anyone have an idea of the breakeven point for either format?

 

[GeorgeLV]

SOny lost around 750 million on the PS3 last quarter.

Question: How many does sony need to sell to break even?

Answer: The only way to stop losing money on it is to stop selling it.

They sure could have used that advice when they launched the PS2. No way a DVD player strapped to a game console would ever break even. Of course 120 million in sales later they're glad they didn't listen to vurbano.

 

[diogen]

Of course 120 million in sales later they're glad they didn't listen to vurbano.

Was Sony's Playstation division at that time losing billions and forced to cut the price 1/3 one year after introduction on top of that?
No matter how big a company is, it can bleed only for so long... And financially Sony is in a far from perfect shape.

Selling some of its properties (e.g. Cell manufacturing) might help, though.

Diogen.

 

[vurbano]

They sure could have used that advice when they launched the PS2. No way a DVD player strapped to a game console would ever break even. Of course 120 million in sales later they're glad they didn't listen to vurbano.

asinine comparison.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Either I'm completely off base, or folks are missing the boat here. I don't see where the blog article is talking about "breaking even" profit-wise on HD DVD players, but is talking about the number of HD DVD players needed to get HD DVD/Blu-ray movies sales to "even", i.e. - 50:50.

He talks about the software sales ratios -

One number that does have perspective is the weekly VideoScan numbers which are about 2:1 for the year.

Then talks about amount of players needed, and brings up the PS3 factor -

While it's easy to say HD DVD needs to double the number of players -- assuming the same attach rate -- there is the very debatable PS3 factor.

Then brings up the Adams Research projections, and concludes that the # of HD DVD players has to at least double to "break even" - the software movie sales ratio, IMHO.

Well, in this week's Home Media Magazine, Tom Adams of Adams Media Research is quoted as saying there will be about 370K stand-alone Blu-ray players on the streets by the end of the year. So, assuming there are over 2 million PS3s, we'd estimate that about 50% of the owners buy Blu-ray movies. Of course the other possibility is that Blu-ray actually has a better attach rate than HD DVD. Either way, anyone would have a hard time arguing that HD DVD needs to do do anything less than double the number of players on the market if they want to even break even -- and that's a lot of players."[/I]

 

[Cranked]

Either I'm completely off base, or folks are missing the boat here. I don't see where the blog article is talking about "breaking even" profit-wise on HD DVD players, but is talking about the number of HD DVD players needed to get HD DVD/Blu-ray movies sales to "even", i.e. - 50:50.

He talks about the software sales ratios -



Then talks about amount of players needed, and brings up the PS3 factor -



Then brings up the Adams Research projections, and concludes that the # of HD DVD players has to at least double to "break even" - the software movie sales ratio, IMHO.

LOL!!

 

[chicagofilms]

SOny lost around 750 million on the PS3 last quarter.

Question: How many does sony need to sell to break even?

Answer: The only way to stop losing money on it is to stop selling it.

Every console company looses money on the systems, it's the nature of the video game business.

 

[chicagofilms]

That's the way I read it too, break even with BD in software sales. Not break even financially.

 

[JoeSp]

There is no way Toshiba can sell enough HD-DVD players to get to a reasonable 50- 50 match in disc sales. First reason is they do not have enough titles. Second reason is of all those $98 HD-DVD players sold they did not seem to impact HD-DVD disc sales.

Transformers comes out and is one of the biggest sellers on HD-DVD -- DUH!!! What other title is there for HD-DVD owners to buy -- Star Trek in HD for $160? If they were not going to buy HD-DVD until the $98 dollar selloff what makes anyone think they are going to dump $160 for one seasons worth of Star Trek in HD?

Both Vurbano and Diogen want to make this post about whether or not Toshiba or Sony is making money and that is not the intent of the post. This is regular misdirection by these two when they cannot come up with the answer or they know the answer is not going to be to their liking.

As long as Toshiba sells those HD-DVD players for $98 they sell, when they go back to their regular price of $299 (around there) they set on the floor and don't sell. Maybe Toshiba should just sell all their players at $98 and eventually they will have enough players on the market to push the BDA off the top of the disc sales. But how long can they continue their discount sales model without those disc sales improving?

 

[vurbano]

As long as Toshiba sells those HD-DVD players for $98 they sell, when they go back to their regular price of $299 (around there) they set on the floor and don't sell.

Wrong. There will always be buyers for high end and low end players. Not everyone is the same.

 

[diogen]

Both Vurbano and Diogen want to make this post about whether or not Toshiba or Sony is making money and that is not the intent of the post.

Making money is the goal of any business. Even those that eventually go defunct.

This is regular misdirection by these two when they cannot come up with the answer or they know the answer is not going to be to their liking.

Answer to what?
The second goal of any business is prevent competitors in making money. And so far Toshiba makes an excellent job here.

Diogen.

 

[vurbano]

Funny, I thought the thread topic was about toshiba making money. ANd now addressing the topic is somehow misdirection? Why? Because it doesnt cater to the blue smurfs FUD? :haha

 

[IcEWoLF]

The only way HD-DVD can catch up is to give their discs for free yes.

 

[JoeSp]

Funny, I thought the thread topic was about toshiba making money. ANd now addressing the topic is somehow misdirection? Why? Because it doesnt cater to the blue smurfs FUD? :haha

Vurbano, are you from Planet Earth? The first post is directly aimed at how HD-DVD can equal BluRay in disc sales not making money! The break even point that the writer is refering to is a 50 - 50 sales ratio between BD & HD-DVD disc sales not making money! Is English your first language? You continue to try and move the topic off center. You are like a broken record -- once you get on the wrong track you just can't get off can you?

And Diogen, I expect you to at least stay on topic -- but no -- you follow your twin to the remedial reading class.

Here, I will help you two. HD-DVD can easily increase disc sales by simply pricing their HD-DVD movies at the same price as their DVDs. They should drop the Combos as they add to the expense of the movie. And where do I get this knowlege from to make this statement -- why from both of you. You both have posted how inexpensive HD-DVD is to produce compared to BluRay. So if the cost to press a HD-DVD is the same as pressing a DVD why doesn't the HD-DVD group just lower the price to the same as DVD and get this over with? They would greatly increase their sales - possibly even passing BluRay and take back the disc sales lead.

See, that wasn't so hard when you understand what the first post was all about now was it?

 

[JoeSp]

On second thought, my statement about the $98 fire sale was directed at the fact that HD-DVD standalones are not rushing out of the door at any retailer -- nor are the more expensive models that Toshiba is marketing. Without that firesale Walmart was going to have alot of lame ducks on its hands as were other retailers. While this was a great move by Toshiba to move alot of HD-DVD players this is not a model for success unless they can continually recreate that pricepoint. Now that the consumer knows that Toshiba will do a firesale they will sit on the sidelines and wait for the next one.

And while this goes on the PS3 is selling more then a 100,000 units a week now here in the states- and everyone a BluRay player and if we only count on half being used as a BluRay player that is 50,000 new BluRay players a week -- every week. Let me know when Toshiba starts posting those kind of numbers with their standalones - and this at a $399 and $499 pricepoint - not a $98 one!

 

[diogen]

I didn't want to get in an argument with you on the weekend but after editing your post twice you pushed it... I'll try to make it short.

So if the cost to press a HD-DVD is the same as pressing a DVD why doesn't the HD-DVD group just lower the price to the same as DVD and get this over with?

You don't get it? Here, I'll help you...
Because "the HD DVD group" doesn't make movies...

I could've used your tagline and say

See, that wasn't so hard when you understand... was it?

but I know it is very hard for you to grasp. It took me at least three posts to make you wrap
your brain around the bandwidth issue (that you since claim you always understood ).

Truth is not what's worshipped at the altar of the Joe_the_Stupid, we all know that by now...

Diogen.