Will you pay a premium for an iPhone 8 (X)?

[TheForce]

I carry one of these when I am traveling and will be out away from my chargers for long days:

Amazon product ASIN B01J3NGSUU
I'm not sure this will charge an iphone X or not. But it works well for watch 0, 2, and 3

 

[Foxbat]

Heh-heh-heh... Did anybody else catch the last week of Dilbert? You can see them at Dilbert.com but these two were my favorites:

and

 

[TheForce]

Why Did Apple (AAPL) Stock Dip Today?
11:47 am ET January 29, 2018 (Zacks) Print

Shares of Apple AAPL dipped more than 2% in morning trading Monday after Japanese financial publication Nikkei reported that the company is halving its production target for the iPhone X in the first three months of the year.

Apple was planning to produce 40 million units of its special-edition phone, but the Cupertino, California-based firm has informed suppliers that it now expects to produce just 20 million units, Nikkei said.

According to the report, Apple’s adjusted production target comes on the back of “slower-than-expected sales” in the holiday shopping period in key markets like Europe, U.S., and China. Nikkei also mentioned that production of the iPhone X faced a components shortage in the wake of its launch, so production can now start to slow as inventory begins to rise.

Meanwhile, the report indicated that Apple is expected to maintain a total production target of 30 million units for its lower-priced models such as the iPhone 8, iPhone 8 Plus, and iPhone 7. Nikkei suggested that the iPhone X’s higher starting price of $999 could be cutting into demand.

Today’s news comes just a week after a key analyst hinted that Apple might discontinue the current iPhone X when the second-generation model launches later this year.

“iPhone X would hurt product brand value & lineup of 2H18 new models if it continues to sell at a lower price after 2H18 new models launch,” wrote Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities.

Apple will report its fiscal first-quarter earnings results later this week. Based on our latest consensus estimates, the company is expected to post total iPhone unit sales of 79.791 million, up about 1.9% from the 78.290 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Total iPhone-related revenues are projected to come in at $59.313 billion, based on our consensus estimate. This would represent year-over-year growth of roughly 9.1%. Overall, total revenues are expected to hit $86.02 billion, up nearly 9.8% from last year.

 

[navychop]

Yep. Son-of-X better have something impressive about it.

Yet those eighteen wheelers keep delivering money to Cupertino.

I’m so tempted to get back in the market and throw ten at AAPL. Down 2.9 right now.

 

[TheForce]

I’m so tempted to get back in the market and throw ten at AAPL.

100 day Moving Average is $166
200 day MA is $158
The Street has it as a buy with a target price of $224.58

I will buy more if it falls below $163. But I'm already too high % of my portfolio for diversity so I have to weigh that in as well.

 

[Ilya]

After having my iPhone X for awhile I am still not sure if the upgrade from my 6s was worth it. I do like the much better camera, the slightly bigger screen and the wireless charging. I am getting used to the absence of the home button. But what I still cannot get used to is the extra weight! I thought it wasn’t a big deal, but the phone is noticeably heavier, and I do notice that every day and wish it would be lighter!

 

[harshness]

A report that I read indicated that Apple will introduce three new models next time out and that the X will be discontinued altogether by the time the new models are bowed.

Another blog reported that Apple is "reevaluating the LCD vs OLED" equation and will continue to use LCD displays in all but the flagship model. It can't be killing them to put a $110 display in a $1,000 phone. Eventually even the faithful will decide that 60%+ profit is just too much.

I see this as a concession that Apple is no longer a leader in the wireless phone market. They can't hang their hats on the promise of the processor and the camera software. Eventually, the rest of the phone will have to move into the 20-teens.

 

[TheForce]

I'm primarily a PC guy and I like Google, but for a phone, and the way it integrates to the Apple product collection is really convenient and that is probably why it is so popular. However, my Android phone works very well for video. I even bought a new gimbal for it and plan on using it to shoot most of my travel documentaries with it as opposed to a 4K camcorder, especially in Mexico where the police like to steal tourists camcorders. I'm no longer a professional camera man so I want to be as stealth as I can but don't want to sacrifice video quality. So while my Android phone is better for top quality pictures, the iphone is still king when it comes to simple everyday communications. The iphone in combination with the airpods and the Apple watch just has no competition, period.

So, I don't buy it that Apple is expanding their choices of new phones ( IF true) that makes them less of a leader in phones. However, as for world wide sales numbers, iphone is not the leader as I see from a Google search:

Of the 432 million smartphones sold in the last quarter, 352 million ran Android (81.7 percent) and 77 million ran iOS (17.9 percent). But what happened to the other players? Well, in the same quarter, Windows Phone managed to round up 0.3 percent of the market, while BlackBerry was reduced to a rounding error.

 

[navychop]

But Apple as a company outsells other smartphone companies? And still makes more off iPhones than all other smartphone companies do off theirs, combined?

 

[TheForce]

But Apple as a company outsells other smartphone companies? And still makes more off iPhones than all other smartphone companies do off theirs, combined?

Very true, however, that really is only important to those who own some shares of Apple. To us, we see this as a buying opportunity rather than a sky is falling report. Then again so many people own Apple stock and don't know it because it is hidden in the profiles of the funds their retirement money is in.

 

[harshness]

But Apple as a company outsells other smartphone companies?

Samsung stole that crown away a while back. Apple is currently offering eight different models (not counting any refurbs it may be offering) and at last check the iPhone 7 was king of the Apple line and gaining ground on the more expensive models (7+, 8, 8+ and X). When it comes as a gift, people shoot for the moon but when they're buying for themselves, they're a lot more conservative.

That Apple makes more profit than perhaps all of its competitors combined is probably not a statistic that users can brag about at the water cooler unless everyone knows they're swimming in Apple stock.

 

[harshness]

To us, we see this as a buying opportunity rather than a sky is falling report.

I own Apple stock and I see it as a black cloud over Apple's marketplace relevance in one of their more profitable divisions. Unlike the faithful, I acknowledge that Apple has a demonstrated ability to soil themselves on occasion.

 

[TheForce]

But how long have you owned Apple stock? What is your basis? If you had purchased it in spring of 2009, you wouldn't see it as a Black Cloud over the market place. My basis is just $73 a share now. And aside from always trading it long ( over a year old stock (FIFO)) I still trade it around a growing core position. With the company fundamentals being so rich in cash, it's hard to see it as a black cloud. So when these expert analysts always try to hammer the company I see it with a smile and just put in another limit order to buy more. The analysts I follow claim the repatriation and tax cuts adding to the growing pile of cash say that isn't even built into the price of the stock yet. It's why the projected stock price is well over $220 a share.

I think it's OK for a new investor in Apple to start a position at these discounted prices, but you should not panic if you started a couple weeks ago at $180 a share and are looking at a loss of $15. If a fast profit is what you thought you were going to get, I'd recommend a stock with a high beta ( one that trades with volatility). Or, why not bitcoin? LOL!


Samsung- OK, they are the big seller of smartphones but what about the company? I thought about buying stock in Samsung for about 2 minutes, dropped that idea when I looked at the track record. It basically was flat until November 2016 when the stock jumped 50% and it has since doubled. But so has Apple. In fact most well heeled companies did the same in 2017. So the fact that Samsung took the throne of being the largest phone sales company in numbers, it was not reflected in the stock as an investment over any other company. Note, Samsung is a large conglomerate but I'm just referring to the one that sells the Galaxy phone.

 

[harshness]

But how long have you owned Apple stock?

Does it matter? I just looked and my cost basis is around $53. If they're shooting blanks on new product development, it isn't a good sign for a company that prides themselves on innovation and design and that doesn't support the pundit's forecasts of $200, much less $300.

I think it's OK for a new investor in Apple to start a position at these discounted prices, but you should not panic if you started a couple weeks ago at $180 a share and are looking at a loss of $15.

This assumes that the price is at or near bottom and that it is going to hop back up for some reason. Apple's value continues to drop today at a rate that outpaces the greater market.

Samsung- OK, they are the big seller of smartphones but what about the company? I thought about buying stock in Samsung for about 2 minutes, dropped that idea when I looked at the track record. It basically was flat until November 2016 when the stock jumped 50% and it has since doubled. But so has Apple. In fact most well heeled companies did the same in 2017. So the fact that Samsung took the throne of being the largest phone sales company in numbers, it was not reflected in the stock as an investment over any other company. Note, Samsung is a large conglomerate but I'm just referring to the one that sells the Galaxy phone.

Samsung isn't the only company making cool smart phones. There are a couple of juggernauts in China (Huawei and Xaomi) and LG has always had some great phones.

From the perspective of the phone purchaser, what the outlook is perhaps just as important than it is to the investor if you're one of those disciples that lives and dies by the somewhat hobbling concept of the "ecosystem".

 

[TheForce]

If you had to look to know your cost basis then you don't follow the stock enough to know much less understand the patterns of the Apple stock. A basis of $53 per share means you had to buy it before Fall of 2011.

I only brought up Samsung because it was mentioned that Apple is not the largest seller of smartphones. Samsung is with 77% of the world wide market and Apple has I recall 17%. The rest occupy that tiny 6% of the remaining. There may be better phones you like, but none of them have the infrastructure as does Apple and Google Chrome. But with Android, you have to have chrome installed to get it. Guess what, Chrome runs just fine on the iphone too. I can use remote desktop for free with my iphone 6. It's a little awkward with the small screen but it works. The iOS is just too easy and never crashes.

 

[harshness]

If you had to look to know your cost basis then you don't follow the stock enough to know much less understand the patterns of the Apple stock.

I don't trade stocks a lot (I'm either in or out because I hate dealing with complicated cost bases) and I have a number of different stocks so I don't waste my time keeping up with what was going on ten years ago. If I were constantly contemplating trading and concerned about capital gains that will result, the cost basis would be of much greater interest.

I've been in Apple longer than you have so I don't think it is reasonable that you claim authority on the movement patterns. I bought at a number that was around 13% below the value at opening that day. It doesn't sound like you caught such a wave.

 

[TheForce]

I saw that Samsung will be doing a 50:1 stock split to generate more interest in the consumer investor. This brings the stock price down to $44 which is easier to swallow for small time investors.

 

[harshness]

I saw that Samsung will be doing a 50:1 stock split to generate more interest in the consumer investor. This brings the stock price down to $44 which is easier to swallow for small time investors.

Yet the financial maneuverings have little to do with where they're at and what their market penetration is.

 

[harshness]

Speaking of percentages, combined with declines in the stock market and a really happy earnings report Apple stock is now down around $160; almost $19 down in two weeks.

Whoda thunk that a great financial report would be met with a precipitous 4.34% share price drop?

 

[Foxbat]

Whoda thunk that a great financial report would be met with a precipitous 4.34% share price drop?

Oh, I dunno, the same people who baled on the best Dow Jones Average in history after The State of the Union Address?