You must of been drinking some sour milk lately.
I don't see any studio jumping ship until after this XMAS and perhaps not till next summer right before XMAS 08.    Everyone seems to be locked into their respective camps.  
I see a status quo situation until after XMAS.  Things that might cause movement:
What the heck is Walmart doing -- low cost BD players --  low cost HD-DVD players.  Just a question here, if you have the chance to buy a $299 HD-DVD player from China or a $299 BD player which do you chose?
Where will Sony price the PS3 for XMAS.  Will it stay at $599, move to the $499 pricepoint or will they go lower?
Can Toshiba go any lower and stay  in the game?  $199 or lower -- and how would that affect Walmart's HD-DVD players from China?
Will the BD camp have a sub $400 player by XMAS?  If it drops to say the $299 range will folks waiting jump when they see what Disney and Pixar have instore for BD?
Will the HD-DVD crowd start going after a little retail space or are they running out of M$ money.  They might be selling alot of players at a low cost but are they making any money?
Who's gonna blink first?   Toshiba, Universal, Sony, Buena Vista (Disney), M$?
My money is on M$.  Right now they are in a little pickle.  The 360 warranty repairs is costing them over 1 billion.   They are going to have to shove alot more money Universal's way to keep them in the HD-DVD fold.  Vista is not making them alot of money right now -- especially since the Gov't has said no to the operating system.  Vista is just not ready for prime time even after being out 6 months.  Could Vista be M$ Waterloo?   M$ needs a hugh XMAS from the 360 and the hot games coming out for it this Fall but Wii and a lower cost PS3 is gonna hurt them more then anyone can really guess right now.
Yep, my money is on M$ blinking first -- they have alot of money but they did not get that way by constantly losing it and throwing it down the drain.  Maybe a brand new XBOX for this XMAS might just be what the doctor ordered because the doctor can't really fix the current one--not permantly.